Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Regulation
2
Wholesale Environment 3
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas
Infrastructure 9
Pipelines 9
LNG 10
Electricity Market Overview
12
Industry Landscape 12
Retail Market Players 12
Regulation
12
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 13
Electricity
Infrastructure 17
Generation Capacity 17
Electricity Networks 18
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 20
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers
a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive
Intensity 20
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is.
This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and
established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their
market share from new entrants. 20
The MCI Index assesses markets as they
stood in early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July
2012, five years after full market opening. 20
The MCI assessment draws on
nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework;
Supplier Push; Customer Pull 21
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment
scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more
details) 22
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 23
Like the power market,
Algeria' s gas sector is curtailed by monopolistic control 23
Like the
power market, Algeria' s gas sector is curtailed by monopolistic control 24
Algeria' s gas market framework metrics score better than those currently
prevailing in the power market 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 4/10
2012: 6/10] 24
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 4.5/10 2012: 6/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2009: 1/10 2012: 1/10] 25
Algeria' s gas supplier push
metrics are curtailed by the role of Sonatrach 25
Wholesale Market
Fragmentation [2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 25
Retail Market Fragmentation
[2009: 0.1/10 2012:0. 1/10] 25
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012:
0.1/10] 25
Weak customer pull metrics reflect the concentrated nature of
Algeria' s gas market 26
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2009:
3/10 2012: 4/10] 26
Consumer Representation [2009: 2/10 2012: 3/10] 26
Propensity to Switch [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 26
Electricity Market
Competitive Intensity 27
Algeria has a one company dominated power market
which serves to limit its total score 27
Algeria has a one company driven
market and hence the overall scenario is not very viable for new competitors
28
The market framework scores are expected to improve during the forecast
period as we expect the reform process to reach a more developed stage by 2012
28
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 28
Ease of Third
Party Access [2009: 2/10 2012: 5/10] 29
Pricing Regime [2009: 1/10 2012:
1/10] 29
Algeria' s Supplier Push metrics will remain low whilst Sonelgaz
maintains control 29
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 1.5/10 2012:
3.5/10] 29
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 0.1/10 2012:1.5/10] 29
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 29
Customer Pull
metrics largely remain at the lower range of the scale 29
Access to Market
Information and Assistance [2009: 1/10 2012: 1/10] 29
Consumer
Representation [2009: 2/10 2012: 2/10] 30
Propensity to Switch [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 30
Commercial opportunities exist, though overcoming
the threat posed by existing players is a significant challenge 30
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 31
MCI Scores Summary 31
MCI
Scoring Scales 34
APPENDIX 39
Definitions 39
Ask the analyst
40
Datamonitor consulting 40
Disclaimer 40
List of Tables
Table 1: Algeria major gas retail players 2
Table 2: Algeria gas supply
and demand balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 3: Algeria gas transmission pipelines
10
Table 4: Algeria LNG terminals 11
Table 5: Algeria major power
retail players 12
Table 6: Algeria power supply and demand balance,
2007-08e 14
Table 7: Market Competitive Intensity, Algeria 2009 and 2012
31
Table 8: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 32
Table 9: MCI
Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 33
List of Figures
Figure 1:
Algeria indigenous gas production, 1990-2008e 6
Figure 2: Algeria gas
export supply sources, 2008e 7
Figure 3: Algeria gas consumption by
sector, 2008e 8
Figure 4: Algeria gas consumption, trends and forecasts,
1990-2020f 9
Figure 5: Algeria power production, 1990-2008e 15
Figure
6: Algeria power consumption by sector, 2008e 16
Figure 7: Algeria power
consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 17
Figure 8: Algeria power
generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 18
Figure 9: MCI Assessment Scale
20
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Framework 21
Figure 11: MCI Scales 22
Figure 12: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 23
Figure
13: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Algeria 24
Figure 14: European Power
Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 27
Figure 15: Power Market
Competitive Intensity, Algeria 28
Figure 16: Market Competitive Intensity,
Algeria 30
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator
34
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 35
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 35
Figure 20: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 36
Figure 21: Scale for
MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 36
Figure 22: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 37
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Access to Market Information 37
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Consumer Representation 38
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity
to Switch 38
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