Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Regulation
3
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 8
Pipelines
8
Storage 9
Electricity Market Overview 10
Industry Landscape
10
Retail Market Players 10
Switching 11
Regulation 11
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 11
Electricity Infrastructure
17
Generation Capacity 17
Electricity Networks 18
Competitive
Intensity Analysis Overview 19
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust
framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity
19
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has
applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and established
players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share
from new entrants. 19
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in
early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five
years after full market opening 19
The MCI assessment draws on nine
underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework;
Supplier Push; Customer Pull 20
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment
scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more
details) 21
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 22
Bulgaria' s weak gas
metrics create an MCI score very much at the lower end of the European scale
22
All of Bulgaria' s gas metrics score at the lower end of the scale
23
Despite a reasonable regulatory score, Bulgaria' s Market Framework
metrics are constrained by the TPA and balancing regimes 23
Effectiveness
of Regulator [2009: 5/10 2012: 6.5/10] 23
Ease of Third Party Access
[2009: 2/10 2012: 3.5/10] 23
Pricing Regime [2009: 2/10 2012: 4/10] 24
All of the Market Framework factors remain firmly at the bottom end of the
scoring scale during the forecast period 24
Wholesale Market Fragmentation
[2009: 0.1/10 2012: 1/10] 24
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 2/10 2012:
2/10] 24
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 1/10] 24
Customer
Pull metrics remain modest both at the current time and at the end of the
forecast period 24
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 2/10] 24
Consumer Representation [2009: 2/10 2012: 2.5/10]
25
Propensity to Switch [2009: 1/10 2012: 2.5/10] 25
Switching rates
have so far been very limited with little to indicate a strong increase over
the forecast period. Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 25
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 26
Bulgaria' s Customer Pull
metrics show particular weakness both now and at the end of the forecast
period 26
Most of Bulgaria' s power metrics remain in the lower half of the
scale 27
Aside from a relatively strong regulatory score, Bulgaria' s
Market Framework metrics remain modest at the end of the forecast period
27
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 5/10 2012: 7/10] 27
Ease of Third
Party Access [2009: 3/10 2012: 3.5/10] 28
Pricing Regime [2009: 3/10 2012:
4/10] 28
All of Bulgaria' s Market Framework metrics show little
improvement both at the current time and in the near term future 28
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 4/10 2012: 5.5/10] 28
Retail Market
Fragmentation [2009: 4/10 2012: 4.5/10] 28
Traded Market Maturity [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 28
The relatively undeveloped nature of the market
serves to constrain the Customer Pull metrics 29
Access to Market
Information and Assistance [2009: 2/10 2012: 3.5/10] 29
Consumer
Representation [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10] 29
Propensity to Switch [2009: 1/10
2012: 3.5/10] 29
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 30
MCI Scores
Summary 30
MCI Scoring Scales 33
APPENDIX 38
List of power
stations in Bulgaria 38
Definitions 39
Ask the analyst 40
Datamonitor consulting 40
Disclaimer 40
List of Tables
Table 1:
Major gas market retail players 2
Table 2: Bulgaria gas supply and demand
balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 3: Bulgaria gas transmission pipelines 9
Table 4: Bulgaria gas storage sites 9
Table 5: Bulgaria major power retail
players 10
Table 6: Bulgaria power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e
12
Table 7: Bulgaria system capacity 18
Table 8: Market Competitive
Intensity, Bulgaria 2009 and 2012 30
Table 9: MCI Additive, Europe 2009
and 2012 31
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 32
Table 11: Bulgaria power generation assets 38
List of Figures
Figure
1: Bulgaria indigenous gas production, 1995-2008e 5
Figure 2: Bulgaria gas
import supply sources, 2008e 6
Figure 3: Bulgaria gas sectoral
consumption, 2008e 7
Figure 4: Bulgaria gas consumption, trends and
forecasts, 1990-2020f 8
Figure 5: Bulgaria power production by fuel type,
1990-2008e 13
Figure 6: Bulgaria power production by fuel type, 2008e
14
Figure 7: Bulgaria power sectoral consumption, 2008e 15
Figure 8:
Bulgaria power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 16
Figure 9:
Bulgaria power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008e (MW) 17
Figure 10:
MCI Assessment Scale 19
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 20
Figure
12: MCI Scales 21
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 22
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 23
Figure 15: European Power Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 26
Figure 16:
Power Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 27
Figure 17: Market
Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 29
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 33
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 34
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
34
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
35
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 35
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 36
Figure 24:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 36
Figure 25: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 37
Figure 26: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 37
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