Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Regulation 2
Gas Supply and Demand
Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines 7
Storage 7
LNG
8
Electricity Market Overview 9
Industry Landscape 9
Regulation
9
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 9
Electricity Infrastructure
15
Generation Capacity 15
Electricity Networks 15
Competitive
Intensity Analysis Overview 17
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust
framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity
17
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has
applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and established
players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share
from new entrants. 17
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in
early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five
years after full market opening 17
The MCI assessment draws on nine
underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework;
Supplier Push; Customer Pull 18
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment
scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more
details) 19
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 20
Croatia' s gas market
competitive intensity leads that of other markets in the region at similar
stages of economic development 20
Following full market opening, the
prospects for the 2012 score will be enhanced 21
Effectiveness of
Regulator [2009: 6/10 2012: 8/10] 21
Ease of Third Party Access [2009:
4/10 2012: 7/10] 22
Pricing Regime [2009: 3/10 2012: 3.5/10] 22
The
absence of a traded market combined with the lack of wholesale and retail
fragmentation significantly constrain the Supplier Push metrics 22
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 2/10 2012: 4/10] 22
Retail Market
Fragmentation [2009: 2/10 2012: 4/10] 22
Traded Market Maturity [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 22
Customer Pull metrics have been given new impetus
by the theoretical opening of the market 22
Access to Market Information
and Assistance [2009: 2/10 2012: 4.5/10] 22
Consumer Representation [2009:
1/10 2012: 3/10] 23
Propensity to Switch [2009: 2/10 2012: 5/10] 23
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 24
Croatia' s power metrics remain
modest over the forecast period 24
Both Croatia' s Supplier Push & Customer
Pull metrics show particular weakness 25
Market framework factors show
little growth over the forecast period 25
Effectiveness of Regulator
[2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 25
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 2/10 2012:
4/10] 26
Pricing Regime [2009: 3/10 2012: 4/10] 26
All the Supplier
Push metrics remain at a low level even by the end of the forecast period
26
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.5/10] 26
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 2.5/10] 26
Traded Market
Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.5/10] 26
A slow pace of market opening has
curtailed the Customer Pull metrics 26
Access to Market Information and
Assistance [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10] 26
Consumer Representation [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 2/10] 27
Propensity to Switch [2009: 1/10 2012: 3/10] 27
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 28
MCI Scores Summary 28
MCI
Scoring Scales 31
Definitions 36
Ask the analyst 37
Datamonitor
consulting 37
Disclaimer 37
List of Tables
Table 1: Croatia gas
supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 3
Table 2: Croatian LNG terminals
8
Table 3: Croatia power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 10
Table
4: Croatia system capacity 16
Table 5: Market Competitive Intensity,
Croatia 2009 and 2012 28
Table 6: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012
29
Table 7: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 30
List of
Figures
Figure 1: Croatia indigenous gas production, 1992-2008e 4
Figure 2: Croatia gas import supply sources, 2008e 5
Figure 3: Croatia gas
sectoral consumption, 2008e 6
Figure 4: Croatia gas consumption, trends
and forecasts, 1990-2020f 7
Figure 5: Croatia power production by fuel
type, 1995-08e 11
Figure 6: Croatian power production by fuel type, 2008e
12
Figure 7: Croatia power sectoral consumption, 2008e 13
Figure 8:
Croatia power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 14
Figure 9:
Croatia power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008e 15
Figure 10: MCI
Assessment Scale 17
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 18
Figure 12:
MCI Scales 19
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 20
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 21
Figure 15: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 24
Figure
16: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 25
Figure 17: Market
Competitive Intensity, Croatia 27
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 31
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 32
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
32
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
33
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 33
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 34
Figure 24:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 34
Figure 25: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 35
Figure 26: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 35
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