Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Gas Infrastructure 3
LNG 3
Electricity Market Overview 4
Industry Landscape 4
Retail Market
Players 4
Regulation 4
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 5
Electricity Infrastructure 8
Generation Capacity 8
Electricity
Networks 9
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 10
Datamonitor' s
MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy
Market Competitive Intensity 10
The MCI Index shows how competitive a
particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to
enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents
seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 10
The MCI Index
assesses markets as they stood in early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely
to be prevailing in July 2012, five years after full market opening. 10
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad
clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 11
Each of the
nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse
markets (see appendix for more details) 12
Gas Market Competitive
Intensity 13
A gas market will not emerge in Cyprus during the forecast
period 13
Cyprus does not currently have a gas market 14
Cyprus does
not currently have a gas market 14
Electricity Market Competitive
Intensity 15
Cyprus' s ranking changes only slightly over the forecast
period 15
Cyprus' s power market achieves only a modest score 16
Market
Framework scores will remain modest in 2012 16
Effectiveness of Regulator
[2009: 5/10 2012: 5/10] 16
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 2.5/10 2012:
3.5/10] 16
Pricing Regime [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 1.5/10] 17
The EAC
monopoly drags the Supplier Push metrics down 17
Wholesale Market
Fragmentation [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 17
Retail Market Fragmentation
[2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 17
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012:
1/10] 17
Customer Pull metrics are very much at the lower end of the scale
and are likely to remain so in July 2012 17
Access to Market Information
and Assistance [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2/10] 17
Consumer Representation [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 1/10] 17
Propensity to Switch [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10]
17
Commercial opportunities for new entrants are unlikely to be found in
Cyprus 18
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 19
MCI Scores
Summary 19
MCI Scoring Scales 22
APPENDIX 27
List of power
stations in Cyprus 27
Definitions 27
Ask the analyst 28
Datamonitor consulting 28
Disclaimer 28
List of Tables
Table 1:
Cyprus LNG terminals 3
Table 2: Cyprus major power retail players 4
Table 3: Cyprus power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 5
Table 4:
Market Competitive Intensity, Cyprus 2009 and 2012 19
Table 5: MCI
Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 20
Table 6: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009
and 2012 21
Table 7: Cyprus power generation assets 27
List of Figures
Figure 1: Cyprus power production by fuel type, 1990-2008e 6
Figure
2: Cyprus power sectoral consumption, 2008e 7
Figure 3: Cyprus power
consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 8
Figure 4: MCI Assessment
Scale 10
Figure 5: MCI Assessment Framework 11
Figure 6: MCI Scales
12
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 13
Figure 8: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Cyprus 14
Figure 9: European
Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 15
Figure 10: Power Market
Competitive Intensity, Cyprus 16
Figure 11: Market Competitive Intensity,
Cyprus 18
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator
22
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 23
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 23
Figure 15: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 24
Figure 16: Scale for
MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 24
Figure 17: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 25
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Access to Market Information 25
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Consumer Representation 26
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity
to Switch 26
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