Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Switching
2
Regulation 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure
7
Pipelines 7
Electricity Market Overview 8
Industry Landscape
8
Retail Market Players 9
Switching 9
Regulation 10
Wholesale
Environment 11
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 11
Electricity
Infrastructure 16
Generation Capacity 16
Electricity Networks 17
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 19
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers
a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive
Intensity 19
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is.
This has applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and
established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their
market share from new entrants. 19
The MCI Index assesses markets as they
stood in early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July
2012, five years after full market opening 19
The MCI assessment draws on
nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework;
Supplier Push; Customer Pull 20
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment
scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more
details) 21
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 22
Finland' s weak gas
metrics create an MCI score very much at the lower end of the European scale
22
All of Finland' s gas metrics score at the lower end of the scale 23
Finland' s gas market framework scores are in stark contrast to those seen in
the power sector 23
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3/10]
23
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10] 23
Pricing
Regime [2009: 5/10 2012: 5/10] 23
Supplier push metrics remain at the
lower end of the scale throughout the forecast period 23
Wholesale Market
Fragmentation [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.2/10] 24
Retail Market Fragmentation
[2009:0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 24
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012:
0.1/10] 24
Lack of switching and access to market information scores
curtail the customer pull metrics 24
Access to Market Information and
Assistance [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 24
Consumer Representation [2009:
1.5/10 2012: 1.5/10] 24
Propensity to Switch [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10]
24
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 25
Finland' s power market
is more developed compared to many other EU nations 25
Finland' s power
customer pull metrics show particular weakness throughout the forecast period
26
Finland' s Market Framework metrics reflect its position as a
liberalized market 26
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 8.5/10 2012: 9/10]
26
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 7/10 2012: 8/10] 27
Pricing
Regime [2009: 5.5/10 2012: 7/10] 27
Supplier push metrics remain ahead of
those seen in many other EU power markets 27
Wholesale Market
Fragmentation [2009: 4.5/10 2012: 5.5/10] 27
Retail Market Fragmentation
[2009: 8/10 2012: 8.5/10] 27
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 10/10 2012:
10/10] 27
Customer Pull scores generally reflect Finland' s liberalized
market structure 28
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2009:
7/10 2012: 8/10] 28
Consumer Representation [2009: 3/10 2012: 4/10] 28
Propensity to Switch [2009: 7/10 2012: 8/10] 28
All of Finland' s market
framework factors score highly 28
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX
29
MCI Scores Summary 29
MCI Scoring Scales 32
APPENDIX 37
List of power stations in Finland 37
Definitions 40
Ask the analyst
41
Datamonitor consulting 41
Disclaimer 41
List of Tables
Table 1: Finland major gas retail market players 2
Table 2: Finland gas
supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 3: Finland major power retail
players 9
Table 4: Finland power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e
12
Table 5: Finland system capacity 18
Table 6: Market Competitive
Intensity, Finland 2009 and 2012 29
Table 7: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and
2012 30
Table 8: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 31
Table 9:
Finland power generation assets 37
List of Figures
Figure 1: Finland
gas import supply sources, 2008e 5
Figure 2: Finland gas sectoral
consumption, 2008e 6
Figure 3: Finland gas consumption, trends and
forecasts, 1990-2020f 7
Figure 4: Finland power production by fuel type,
1990-2008e 13
Figure 5: Finland power production by fuel type, 2008e
14
Figure 6: Finland power sectoral consumption, 2008e 15
Figure 7:
Finland power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 16
Figure 8:
Finland power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 17
Figure 9: MCI
Assessment Scale 19
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Framework 20
Figure 11:
MCI Scales 21
Figure 12: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 22
Figure 13: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Finland 23
Figure 14: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 25
Figure
15: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Finland 26
Figure 16: Market
Competitive Intensity, Finland 28
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 32
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 33
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
33
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
34
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 34
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 35
Figure 23:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 35
Figure 24: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 36
Figure 25: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 36
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