Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Switching
4
Regulation 4
Wholesale Environment 5
Gas Supply and Demand
Analysis 6
Gas Infrastructure 11
Pipelines 11
Storage 14
LNG
15
Electricity Market Overview 16
Industry Landscape 16
Retail
Market Players 16
Switching 16
Regulation 16
Wholesale Environment
18
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 19
Electricity
Infrastructure 24
Generation Capacity 24
Electricity Networks 26
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 28
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers
a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive
Intensity 28
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is.
This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and
established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their
market share from new entrants. 28
The MCI Index assesses markets as they
stood in early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July
2012, five years after full market opening 28
The MCI assessment draws on
nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework;
Supplier Push; Customer Pull 29
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment
scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more
details) 30
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 31
In common with its
position power, France' s gas competitive intensity lags behind that of
economies at similar stages of economic development 31
A minor fillip in
the Market Framework factors is the only element supporting the French gas
metrics 32
Regulatory effectiveness is the key driver of the Market
Framework scores 32
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 7.5/10 2012: 8.5/10]
32
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 5/10 2012: 5.5/10] 33
Pricing
Regime [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3/10] 33
Supplier Push factors in France are
influenced by the reduction in wholesale fragmentation that is expected to
improve further by 2012 33
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 2.5/10
2012: 5/10] 33
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 4.5/10]
33
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 5/10] 34
Customer Pull
metrics all score low marks and are not expected to reflect any major changes
by 2012 34
Access to Market Information [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 4/10] 34
Consumer Representation [2009: 4/10 2012: 5/10] 34
Propensity to Switch
[2009: 2.5/10 2012: 4/10] 34
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity
35
France' s power market competitive intensity is the lowest of Europe' s
developed economies 35
France' s Supplier Push metrics show particular
weakness, though will be driven forward by an increase in Powernext liquidity
36
Increased pro-action and momentum from the Regulator are likely to
strengthen the Market Framework score by 2012 36
Effectiveness of
Regulator [2009: 7.5/10 2012: 8.5/10] 36
Ease of Third Party Access [2009:
4.5/10 2012: 7/10] 37
Pricing Regime [2009: 4.5/10 2012: 7.5/10] 37
Growth in the Supplier Push metrics will improve by 2012 37
Wholesale
Market Fragmentation [2009: 1/10 2012: 4/10] 37
Retail Market
Fragmentation [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10] 37
Improved market information is
expected to improve the overall Customer Pull 38
Access to Market
Information [2009: 6.5/10 2012: 8/10] 38
Consumer Representation [2009:
2/10 2012: 4/10] 38
Propensity to Switch [2009: 2/10 2012: 3/10] 38
Exploiting commercial opportunities in France will be heavily influenced by a
need to mitigate the role of established players 39
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY
ANALYSIS APPENDIX 40
MCI Scores Summary 40
MCI Scoring Scales 43
APPENDIX 48
List of power stations in France 48
Definitions 54
Ask
the analyst 56
Datamonitor consulting 56
Disclaimer 56
List of
Tables
Table 1: France major gas retail market players 2
Table 2:
France gas supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 6
Table 3: France gas
transmission pipelines 13
Table 4: France gas storage sites 14
Table
5: France LNG terminals 15
Table 6: France major power retail market
players 16
Table 7: France power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e
20
Table 8: France power transmission lines 27
Table 9: Market
Competitive Intensity, France 2009 and 2012 40
Table 10: MCI Additive,
Europe 2009 and 2012 41
Table 11: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012
42
Table 12: France power generation assets 48
List of Figures
Figure 1: Major gas retail players market share in B2B segment, 2008 3
Figure 2: Major gas retail players market share in B2C segment, 2008 4
Figure 3: France indigenous gas production 1990-2008e 7
Figure 4: France
gas (pipeline) import supply sources, 2008e 8
Figure 5: France gas (LNG)
import supply sources, 2008e 9
Figure 6: France gas sectoral consumption,
2008e 10
Figure 7: France gas consumption, trends and forecast, 1990-2020f
11
Figure 8: France power production by fuel type, 1990-2008e 21
Figure 9: France power production by fuel type, 2008e 22
Figure 10: France
power sectoral consumption, 2008e 23
Figure 11: France power consumption,
trends and forecast, 1990-2020f 24
Figure 12: France power generation
capacity by fuel type 26
Figure 13: MCI Assessment Scale 28
Figure 14:
MCI Assessment Framework 29
Figure 15: MCI Scales 30
Figure 16:
European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 31
Figure 17: Gas
Market Competitive Intensity, France 32
Figure 18: European Power Market
Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 35
Figure 19: Power Market Competitive
Intensity, France 36
Figure 20: Market Competitive Intensity, France
39
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 43
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 43
Figure
23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 44
Figure 24: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 45
Figure 25: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 45
Figure 26: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 46
Figure 27: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Access to Market Information 46
Figure 28: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Consumer Representation 47
Figure 29: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity
to Switch 47
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