Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Regulation
2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 8
Pipelines
8
LNG 9
Electricity Market Overview 11
Industry Landscape 11
Retail Market Players 11
Regulation 11
Electricity Supply and Demand
Analysis 12
Electricity Infrastructure 17
Generation Capacity 17
Electricity Networks 18
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 20
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the
development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 20
The MCI Index shows
how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new
entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former
monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants.
20
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009 and
forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years after
full market opening. 20
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying
metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push;
Customer Pull 21
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow
for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 22
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 23
Greece' s gas market remains low down
on the competitive intensity scale, despite continued rapid demand growth
23
Greece still has a long way to go to reach to the levels of competition
seen in developed gas markets 24
Market framework may see some improvement
by the forecasted period 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 4/10 2012:
6/10] 24
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 5/10] 25
Pricing Regime [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2/10] 25
Supplier push is expected to
remain at the lower end of the scale 25
Wholesale Market Fragmentation
[2009: 1/10 2012: 3/10] 25
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 1.5/10 2012:
2/10] 25
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 25
Customer Pull metrics are all redundant given the current market structure and
will only increase marginally by 2012 25
Access to Market Information and
Assistance [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2.5/10] 25
Consumer Representation [2009:
2/10 2012: 2/10] 25
Propensity to Switch [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 1.5/10]
26
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 27
Greece' s power market
remains very much at the bottom end of the competitive intensity scale both
during and after the forecast period 27
Greece' s Market Framework factors
are the only area of discernible strength in the overall power score 28
Greece' s Market Framework scores support the overall total 28
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 5.5/10 2012: 8/10] 28
Ease of Third
Party Access [2009: 6/10 2012: 7/10] 28
Pricing Regime [2009: 4/10 2012:
5/10] 29
The former monopoly position of the PPC serves to significantly
constrain the Supplier Push metrics 29
Wholesale Market Fragmentation
[2009: 0.5/10 2012: 2/10] 29
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 0.1/10
2012: 0.5/10] 29
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 29
Greece' s Customer Pull metrics will continue to be held back by the lack of
new market entrants and the dominance of the PPC 29
Access to Market
Information and Assistance [2009: 2/10 2012: 2.5/10] 29
Consumer
Representation [2009: 2/10 2012: 2.5/10] 29
Propensity to Switch [2009:
0.5/10 2012: 1/10] 29
Limited competitive intensity in the Greek energy
markets create significant opportunities for those seeking early mover
advantage 30
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 31
MCI Scores
Summary 31
MCI Scoring Scales 34
APPENDIX 39
List of power
stations in Greece 39
Definitions 42
Ask the analyst 42
Datamonitor consulting 42
Disclaimer 42
List of Tables
Table 1:
Greece major gas retail players 2
Table 2: Greece gas supply and demand
balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 3: Greece gas transmission pipelines 9
Table
4: Greece LNG terminals 10
Table 5: Greece major power retail players
11
Table 6: Greece power supply and demand balance, 2007-08 13
Table
7: Greece system capacity 19
Table 8: Market Competitive Intensity, Greece
2009 and 2012 31
Table 9: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 32
Table
10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 33
Table 11: Greece power
generation assets 39
List of Figures
Figure 1: Greece indigenous gas
production, 1990-2008e 5
Figure 2: Greece gas import supply sources, 2008e
6
Figure 3: Greece gas consumption by sector, 2008e 7
Figure 4: Greece
gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 8
Figure 5: Greece power
production by fuel type, 1990-2008 14
Figure 6: Greece power production by
fuel type, 2008 15
Figure 7: Greece power consumption by sector, 2008
16
Figure 8: Greece power consumption trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f
17
Figure 9: Greece power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 18
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Scale 20
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework
21
Figure 12: MCI Scales 22
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive
Intensity, 2009-12 23
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Greece
24
Figure 15: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 27
Figure 16: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Greece 28
Figure 17: Market
Competitive Intensity, Greece 30
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 34
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 35
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
35
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
36
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 36
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 37
Figure 24:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 37
Figure 25: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 38
Figure 26: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 38
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