Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Regulation 2
Wholesale Environment
3
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 9
Pipelines
9
Storage 9
LNG 10
Electricity Market Overview 11
Industry
Landscape 11
Regulation 11
Wholesale Environment 12
Electricity
Supply and Demand Analysis 12
Electricity Infrastructure 17
Generation
Capacity 17
Electricity Networks 18
Competitive Intensity Analysis
Overview 20
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for
measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 20
The
MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications
for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and
former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new
entrants. 20
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009
and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years
after full market opening. 20
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying
metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push;
Customer Pull 21
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow
for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 22
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 23
Despite being a small gas market,
Ireland achieves a high ranking within the markets surveyed 23
A strong
Market Framework score serves to offset weakness in some of the other metrics
24
Ireland' s gas Market Framework remains at the upper end of the scale
during the forecasted period 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 7/10
2012: 8/10] 24
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 8.5/10 2012: 9/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3.5/10] 25
Development of a Traded
wholesale market may drive the score up from its current level 25
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 4.5/10] 25
Retail
Market Fragmentation [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10] 25
Traded Market Maturity
[2009: 8/10 2012: 9/10] 25
Customer Pull metrics remain at moderate levels
by 2012 26
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2009: 4/10 2012:
5.5/10] 26
Consumer Representation [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3/10] 26
Propensity to Switch [2009: 4/10 2012: 4.5/10] 26
Electricity Market
Competitive Intensity 27
The change in Ireland' s power score over the
forecast period gives it a slight upward movement in the rankings over the
forecast period 27
Ireland' s power score is driven by the Market Framework
and Supplier Push metrics 28
Market Framework metrics generally score
highly and are likely to further improve by 2010 28
Effectiveness of
Regulator [2009: 5.5/10 2012: 7.5/10] 28
Ease of Third Party Access [2009:
3.4/10 2012: 7/10] 29
Pricing Regime [2009: 6/10 2012: 7/10] 29
The
Supplier Push metrics remains at a moderate level, however we expect this to
improve by 2012 29
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 2.8/10 2012:
6/10] 29
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 3.4/10 2012: 7/10] 29
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 4/10] 30
Customer Pull metrics
remain relatively weak 30
Access to Market Information and Assistance
[2009: 2.3/10 2012: 4/10] 30
Consumer Representation [2009: 1.5/10 2012:
2.5/10] 30
Propensity to Switch [2009: 5.8/10 2012: 7/10] 30
Both
Power and Gas market create significant commercial opportunities for new
entrants 31
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 32
MCI Scores
Summary 32
MCI Scoring Scales 35
APPENDIX 40
List of power
stations in Ireland 40
Definitions 41
Ask the analyst 42
Datamonitor consulting 42
Disclaimer 42
List of Tables
Table 1:
Ireland gas supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 2: Ireland LNG
terminals 10
Table 3: Ireland power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e
13
Table 4: Ireland system capacity 19
Table 5: Market Competitive
Intensity, Ireland 2009 and 2012 32
Table 6: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and
2012 33
Table 7: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 34
Table 8:
Ireland power generation assets 40
List of Figures
Figure 1: Ireland
indigenous gas production, 1990-2008e 6
Figure 2: Ireland gas consumption
by sector, 2008e 7
Figure 3: Ireland gas consumption, trends and
forecasts, 1990-2020f 8
Figure 4: Ireland power production by fuel type,
1990-2008e 14
Figure 5: Ireland power production by fuel type, 2008e
15
Figure 6: Ireland power consumption by sector, 2008e 16
Figure 7:
Ireland power consumption trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 17
Figure 8:
Ireland power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 18
Figure 9: MCI
Assessment Scale 20
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Framework 21
Figure 11:
MCI Scales 22
Figure 12: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 23
Figure 13: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Ireland 24
Figure 14: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 27
Figure
15: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Ireland 28
Figure 16: Market
Competitive Intensity, Ireland 31
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 35
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 35
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
36
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
36
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 37
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 37
Figure 23:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 38
Figure 24: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 38
Figure 25: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 39
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