Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Regulation
2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 6
Pipelines
6
Storage 8
LNG 8
Electricity Market Overview 9
Industry
Landscape 9
Retail Market Players 9
Regulation 9
Electricity
Supply and Demand Analysis 10
Electricity Infrastructure 15
Generation
Capacity 15
Electricity Networks 16
Competitive Intensity Analysis
Overview 18
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for
measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 18
The
MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications
for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and
former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new
entrants. 18
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009
and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years
after full market opening. 18
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying
metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push;
Customer Pull 19
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow
for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 20
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 21
The gas market is dominated by two key
suppliers with the regulatory framework and tariff barriers making market
entry difficult to achieve 21
Very limited viability currently exists for
new players in the Lithuanian gas market 22
Lithuania' s gas Market
Framework factors will remain modest 22
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009:
2.5/10 2012: 3/10] 22
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 2/10 2012: 2.5/10]
22
Pricing Regime [2009: 2/10 2012: 3/10] 22
Supplier Push metrics are
all at the bottom end of the scale in the current climate 23
Wholesale
Market Fragmentation [2009: 0.5/10 2012: 1/10] 23
Retail Market
Fragmentation [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 23
Traded Market Maturity [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 23
Customer Pull metrics largely remain at the lower
range of the scale 23
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2009:
0.5/10 2012: 1/10] 23
Consumer Representation [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10]
23
Propensity to Switch [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.5/10] 23
Electricity
Market Competitive Intensity 24
Competition in Lithuania remains limited
due to a number of remaining regulatory and tariff barriers 24
Scope for
new entrants to the Lithuania power market remains inherently limited 25
The Market Framework metrics remain a key flaw in Lithuania' s overall score
25
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3.5/10] 25
Ease of
Third Party Access [2009: 1/10 2012: 1.5/10] 26
Pricing Regime [2009: 1/10
2012: 1.5/10] 26
The dominance of a number of key utilities curtails the
Supplier Push scores 26
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 2/10 2012:
2.5/10] 26
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.5/10] 26
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 1/10 2012: 1.5/10] 26
Customer Pull metrics
play only a minor role in the current market structure 27
Access to Market
Information and Assistance [2009: 1/10 2012: 1.5/10] 27
Consumer
Representation [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10] 27
Propensity to Switch [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 0.5/10] 27
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 29
MCI
Scores Summary 29
MCI Scoring Scales 32
APPENDIX 37
List of power
stations in Lithuania 37
Definitions 37
Ask the analyst 39
Datamonitor consulting 39
Disclaimer 39
List of Tables
Table 1:
Lithuania major gas retail players 2
Table 2: Lithuania gas supply and
demand balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 3: Lithuania gas transmission pipelines
7
Table 4: Lithuania gas storage sites 8
Table 5: Lithuania major
power retail players 9
Table 6: Lithuania power supply and demand balance,
2007-08e 11
Table 7: Lithuania system capacity 17
Table 8: Market
Competitive Intensity, Lithuania 2009 and 2012 29
Table 9: MCI Additive,
Europe 2009 and 2012 30
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012
31
Table 11: Lithuania power generation assets 37
List of Figures
Figure 1: Lithuania gas sectoral consumption, 2008e 5
Figure 2:
Lithuania gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 6
Figure 3:
Lithuania power production by fuel type, 1990-2008e 12
Figure 4: Lithuania
power production by fuel type, 2008e 13
Figure 5: Lithuania power sectoral
consumption, 2008e 14
Figure 6: Lithuania power consumption, trends and
forecasts, 1990-2020f 15
Figure 7: Lithuania power generation capacity by
fuel type, 2008 16
Figure 8: MCI Assessment Scale 18
Figure 9: MCI
Assessment Framework 19
Figure 10: MCI Scales 20
Figure 11: European
Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 21
Figure 12: Gas Market
Competitive Intensity, Lithuania 22
Figure 13: European Power Market
Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 24
Figure 14: Power Market Competitive
Intensity, Lithuania 25
Figure 15: Market Competitive Intensity, Lithuania
28
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 32
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 33
Figure
18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 33
Figure 19: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 34
Figure 20: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 34
Figure 21: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 35
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Access to Market Information 35
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Consumer Representation 36
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity
to Switch 36
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