Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Regulation
2
Wholesale Environment 4
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 4
Gas
Infrastructure 10
Pipelines 10
Storage 12
LNG 12
Electricity
Market Overview 14
Industry Landscape 14
Retail Market Players 14
Regulation 14
Wholesale Environment 15
Electricity Supply and Demand
Analysis 15
Electricity Infrastructure 20
Generation Capacity 20
Figure 10 shows installed capacity of power assets by fuel type in 2008:
21
Electricity Networks 21
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview
23
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the
development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 23
The MCI Index shows
how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new
entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former
monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants.
23
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009 and
forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years after
full market opening 23
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics
grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer
Pull 24
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the
comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 25
Gas
Market Competitive Intensity 26
The increase in the Dutch gas score over
the forecast period is insufficient to increase its place in the rankings
26
The Dutch score continues to develop over the forecast period 27
The relatively high Market Framework scores reflect the status of the
Netherlands as an established and mature gas market 27
Effectiveness of
Regulator [2009: 7/10 2012: 8.5/10] 27
Ease of Third Party Access [2009:
8/10 2012: 8.5/10] 27
Pricing Regime [2009: 5/10 2012: 6/10] 28
Supplier Push factors are driven by the existence of, and growing liquidity
in, the TTF wholesale market 28
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009:
4.5/10 2012: 6/10] 28
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 6/10 2012: 6/10]
28
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 7.5/10 2012: 10/10] 28
Customer Pull
scores have been constrained, and will continue to be constrained, by a lack
of strong consumer representation 29
Access to Market Information and
Assistance [2009: 8/10 2012: 9/10] 29
Consumer Representation [2009:
4.5/10 2012: 6/10] 29
Propensity to Switch [2009: 4/10 2012: 5/10] 29
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 30
The Dutch power score is
curtailed by the weakness in the Customer Pull metrics 30
The Dutch power
score is curtailed by weakness in the Customer Pull metrics 31
The Market
Framework metrics are driven by the competency of the regulator and its focus
on social as well as market issues 31
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009:
8/10 2012: 8.5/10] 31
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 6.5/10 2012: 9/10]
32
Pricing Regime [2009: 7/10 2012: 7/10] 32
Supplier Push factors
will continue to grow by July 2012 32
Wholesale Market Fragmentation
[2009: 6.5/10 2012: 7/10] 32
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 4/10 2012:
4/10] 32
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 6.5/10 20120: 9/10] 32
Customer
Pull factors are driven by widespread price discovery information 33
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2009: 8/10 2012: 9/10] 33
Consumer Representation [2009: 4.5/10 2012: 5.5/10] 33
Propensity to
Switch [2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 33
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX
34
MCI Scores Summary 34
MCI Scoring Scales 37
APPENDIX 42
List of power stations in Netherlands 42
Definitions 43
Ask the
analyst 44
Datamonitor consulting 44
Disclaimer 44
List of Tables
Table 1: Netherlands major gas retail market players 2
Table 2:
Netherlands gas supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 5
Table 3: Netherlands
gas transmission pipelines 11
Table 4: Netherlands gas storage sites
12
Table 5: Netherlands LNG terminals 13
Table 6: Netherlands major
power retail players 14
Table 7: Netherlands power supply and demand
balance, 2007-08e 16
Table 8: Netherlands system capacity 22
Table 9:
Market Competitive Intensity, Netherlands 2009 and 2012 34
Table 10: MCI
Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 35
Table 11: MCI Multiplicative, Europe
2009 and 2012 36
Table 12: Netherlands power generation assets 42
List
of Figures
Figure 1: Netherlands indigenous gas production, 1990-2008e
6
Figure 2: Netherlands gas import supply sources, 2008e 7
Figure 3:
Netherlands gas export supply sources, 2008e 8
Figure 4: Netherlands gas
sectoral consumption, 2008e 9
Figure 5: Netherlands gas consumption,
trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 10
Figure 6: Netherlands power production
by fuel type, 1990-2008e 17
Figure 7: Netherlands power production by fuel
type, 2008e 18
Figure 8: Netherlands power sectoral consumption, 2008e
19
Figure 9: Netherlands power consumption, trends and forecasts,
1990-2020f 20
Figure 10: Netherlands power generation capacity by fuel
type, 2008 21
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Scale 23
Figure 12: MCI
Assessment Framework 24
Figure 13: MCI Scales 25
Figure 14: European
Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 26
Figure 15: Gas Market
Competitive Intensity, Netherlands 27
Figure 16: European Power Market
Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 30
Figure 17: Power Market Competitive
Intensity, Netherlands 31
Figure 18: Market Competitive Intensity,
Netherlands 33
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of
Regulator 37
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party
Access 38
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 38
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 39
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 39
Figure
24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 40
Figure 25: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 40
Figure 26: Scale for
MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 41
Figure 27: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 41
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