Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Switching 2
Regulation 2
Gas
Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 8
Pipelines 8
LNG
9
Electricity Market Overview 10
Industry Landscape 10
Switching
10
Regulation 10
Wholesale Environment 10
Electricity Supply and
Demand Analysis 11
Electricity Infrastructure 16
Generation Capacity
16
Electricity Networks 18
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview
19
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the
development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 19
The MCI Index shows
how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new
entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former
monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants.
19
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009 and
forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years after
full market opening 19
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics
grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer
Pull 20
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the
comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 21
Gas
Market Competitive Intensity 22
The domestic gas market in Norway remains
a small component of the energy mix 22
The Norwegian domestic gas market
remains small in relation to the overall energy mix 23
Norway has a low
gas Market Framework score due to the limited size of the domestic market and
a strong state presence 23
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 1.5/10 2012:
2/10] 23
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 0.5/10 2012: 1/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 24
Supplier Push metrics are
all at the bottom end of the scale 24
Wholesale Market Fragmentation
[2009: 0.5/10 2012: 0.5/10] 24
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 1.5/10 2012:
3/10] 24
Customer Pull metrics largely remain at the lower range of the
scale 24
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2009: 1/10 2012:
2/10] 24
Market information and assistance in the gas sector remains
limited in Norway due to the small levels of gas supply in the market. 24
Consumer Representation [2009: 2/10 2012: 3/10] 25
Propensity to Switch
[2009: 0.1/10 2012: 1/10] 25
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity
26
Norway remains a limited market for investment both in the electricity
and gas sectors due to a strong state presence and limited gas penetration
26
Scope for new entrants to Norway' s power market remain limited but
liberalisation should increase competition to some degree 27
Norway' s
Market Framework metrics show minimal growth over the forecast period 27
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 6/10 2012: 6/10] 27
Ease of Third Party
Access [2009: 5/10 2012: 6/10] 28
Pricing Regime [2009: 3/10 2012: 3.5/10]
28
The dominance of a number of key state run utilities curtails the
Supplier Push scores 28
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 4/10 2012:
4/10] 28
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 8.5/10 2012: 9/10] 28
Currently there are around 120 players supplying the Norwegian retail power
market. Concentration is relatively low with the three largest players
supplying only around 30% of the market. 28
Traded Market Maturity [2009:
10/10 2012: 10/10] 28
Customer Pull metrics only play a minor role in the
current market structure 29
Access to Market Information and Assistance
[2009: 8/10 2012: 8/10] 29
Consumer Representation [2009: 4/10 2012: 5/10]
29
Propensity to Switch [2009: 5/10 2012: 6/10] 29
COMPETITIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 31
MCI Scores Summary 31
MCI Scoring
Scales 34
Definitions 39
Ask the analyst 40
Datamonitor consulting
40
Disclaimer 40
List of Tables
Table 1: Norway gas supply and
demand balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 2: Norway gas transmission pipelines
9
Table 3: Norway power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 12
Table
4: Norway system capacity 18
Table 5: Market Competitive Intensity, Norway
2009 and 2012 31
Table 6: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 32
Table
7: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 33
List of Figures
Figure 1: Norway indigenous gas production, 1990-2008e 5
Figure 2: Norway
gas export supply sources, 2008e 6
Figure 3: Norway gas sectoral
consumption, 2008e 7
Figure 4: Norway gas consumption, trends and
forecasts, 1990-2020f 8
Figure 5: Norway power production by fuel type,
1990-2008e 13
Figure 6: Norway power production by fuel type, 2008e 14
Figure 7: Norway power sectoral consumption, 2008e 15
Figure 8: Norway
power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 16
Figure 9: Norway
power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 17
Figure 10: MCI Assessment
Scale 19
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 20
Figure 12: MCI Scales
21
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 22
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Norway 23
Figure 15: European
Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 26
Figure 16: Power Market
Competitive Intensity, Norway 27
Figure 17: Market Competitive Intensity,
Norway 30
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator
34
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 35
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 35
Figure 21: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 36
Figure 22: Scale for
MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 36
Figure 23: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 37
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Access to Market Information 37
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Consumer Representation 38
Figure 26: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity
to Switch 38
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