Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Switching
4
Regulation 4
Wholesale Environment 5
Gas Supply and Demand
Analysis 6
Gas Infrastructure 9
Pipelines 9
Storage 10
LNG
10
Gas Fired Power 11
Electricity Market Overview 12
Industry
Landscape 12
Retail Market Players 12
Switching 12
Regulation
12
Wholesale Environment 14
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis
14
Electricity Infrastructure 19
Generation Capacity 19
Electricity Networks 21
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 23
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the
development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 23
The MCI Index shows
how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new
entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former
monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants.
23
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009 and
forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years after
full market opening 23
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics
grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer
Pull 24
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the
comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 25
Gas
Market Competitive Intensity 26
The gas market is dominated by one key
supplier with little in the way of market opening at this stage 26
The
Portuguese gas market remains largely closed to competition due to a
derogation from EU directives 27
Portugal' s gas Market Framework remains
largely closed to competition at this stage 27
Effectiveness of Regulator
[2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 27
Ease of Third Party Access [2009 0.5/10 2012
4/10] 28
Pricing Regime [2009: 5.5/10 2012: 7/10] 28
Supplier Push
metrics are all at the bottom end of the scale in the current climate 28
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 2/10 2012: 4/10] 28
Retail Market
Fragmentation [2009: 1/10 2012: 3/10] 28
Traded Market Maturity [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 4/10] 28
Customer Pull metrics largely remain at the lower
range of the scale 28
Access to Market Information [2009: 1.5/10 2012:
3/10] 28
Consumer Representation [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2.5/10] 28
Propensity to Switch [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 4/10] 28
Electricity Market
Competitive Intensity 30
Portugal remains a limited market for investment
due to a number of structural barriers 30
Scope for new entrants to
Portugal' s power market remains limited 31
The Market Framework metrics
form a key constituent of Portugal' s overall score 31
Effectiveness of
Regulator [2009: 5.5/10 2012: 7/10] 31
Ease of Third Party Access [2009:
4/10 2012: 5/10] 31
Pricing Regime [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 5/10] 32
The
dominance a number of key utilities curtails the Supplier Push scores 32
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 6.5/10] 32
Retail
Market Fragmentation [2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 32
Traded Market Maturity
[2009: 4/10 2012: 6/10] 32
Customer Pull metrics only play a minor role in
the current market structure 33
Access to Market Information [2009: 2/10
2012: 3.5/10] 33
Consumer Representation [2009: 2/10 2012: 3.5/10] 33
Propensity to Switch [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 4/10] 33
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY
ANALYSIS APPENDIX 34
MCI Scores Summary 34
MCI Scoring Scales 37
APPENDIX 42
List of power stations in Portugal 42
Definitions 46
Ask the analyst 48
Datamonitor consulting 48
Disclaimer 48
List of
Tables
Table 1: Portugal major gas retail market players 2
Table 2:
Portugal gas supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 6
Table 3: Portugal gas
transmission pipelines 10
Table 4: Portugal gas storage sites 10
Table
5: Portugal LNG terminal 11
Table 6: Portugal major power retail market
players 12
Table 7: Portugal power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e
15
Table 8: Portugal power transmission lines 22
Table 9: Market
Competitive Intensity, Portugal 2009 and 2012 34
Table 10: MCI Additive,
Europe 2009 and 2012 35
Table 11: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012
36
Table 12: Portugal power generation assets 42
List of Figures
Figure 1: Major gas retail players market share in B2B segment, 2008 3
Figure 2: Major gas retail players market share in B2C segment, 2008 4
Figure 3: Portugal gas import supply sources, 2008e 7
Figure 4: Portugal
gas sectoral consumption, 2008e 8
Figure 5: Portugal gas consumption,
trends and forecast, 1990-2020f 9
Figure 6: Portugal power production by
fuel type, 1990-2008e 16
Figure 7: Portugal power production by fuel type,
2008e 17
Figure 8: Portugal power sectoral consumption, 2008e 18
Figure 9: Portugal power consumption, trends and forecast, 1990-2020f 19
Figure 10: Portugal power generation capacity by fuel type 21
Figure 11:
MCI Assessment Scale 23
Figure 12: MCI Assessment Framework 24
Figure
13: MCI Scales 25
Figure 14: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 26
Figure 15: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Portugal 27
Figure 16: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 30
Figure
17: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Portugal 31
Figure 18: Market
Competitive Intensity, Portugal 33
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 37
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 37
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
38
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
39
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 39
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 40
Figure 25:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 40
Figure 26: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 41
Figure 27: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 41
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