Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Regulation 2
Wholesale Environment
3
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 4
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines
7
Storage 8
LNG 8
Electricity Market Overview 9
Industry
Landscape 9
Regulation 9
Wholesale Environment 11
Electricity
Supply and Demand Analysis 12
Electricity Infrastructure 16
Generation
Capacity 16
Electricity Networks 17
Competitive Intensity Analysis
Overview 18
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for
measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 18
The
MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications
for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and
former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new
entrants. 18
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009
and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years
after full market opening 18
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying
metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push;
Customer Pull 19
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow
for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 20
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 21
Russia' s gas scores are consistently
low across all metrics 22
Russia' s Market Framework factors all score at
the lower end of the scale with little improvement likely to be seen by 2012
22
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 2/10 2012: 3/10] 22
Ease of Third
Party Access [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 2.5/10] 23
Pricing Regime [2009: 2/10
2012: 3/10] 23
None of the factors making up the Supplier Push metrics
will develop significantly by 2012 23
Wholesale Market Fragmentation
[2009: 1/10 2012: 3/10] 23
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 1/10 2012:
3/10] 23
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 2/10 2012: 3.5/10] 23
Current
market dynamics mean that the gas Customer Pull metrics will continue to be
very limited 23
Access to Market Information [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 2/10]
23
Consumer Representation [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 2/10] 24
Propensity to
Switch [2009: 1/10 2012: 3/10] 24
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity
25
Russia' s power score and ranking increases significantly over the
forecast period 25
Russia' s power score is driven by strong Supplier Push
metrics 26
Other than possible changes in the balancing regime, the Market
Framework metrics will remain at the lower end of the scale 26
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 4/10 2012: 5/10] 26
Ease of Third Party
Access [2009: 3/10 2012: 5.5/10] 26
Pricing Regime [2009: 2/10 2012: 3/10]
27
Ongoing market reform will drive the Supplier Push factors considerably
higher by the end of the forecast period 27
Wholesale Market Fragmentation
[2009: 3.5/10 2012: 8/10] 27
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 3/10 2012:
7/10] 27
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 3/10 2012: 8/10] 27
Current
market dynamics mean that the power Customer Pull metrics have no scope to
remain anything other than very limited 27
Access to Market Information
[2009: 0.1/10 2012: 2.5/10] 27
Consumer Representation [2009: 0.1/10 2012:
1/10] 27
Propensity to Switch [2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 27
COMPETITIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 29
MCI Scores Summary 29
MCI Scoring
Scales 32
APPENDIX 37
Definitions 37
Ask the analyst 38
Datamonitor consulting 38
Disclaimer 38
List of Tables
Table 1:
Russia gas supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 2: Russia power
supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 12
Table 3: Market Competitive
Intensity, Russia 2009 and 2012 29
Table 4: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and
2012 30
Table 5: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 31
List of
Figures
Figure 1: Russia indigenous gas production 1990-2008e 5
Figure 2: Russia gas export supply sources, 2008e 6
Figure 3: Russia gas
consumption, trends and forecast, 1990-2020f 7
Figure 4: Russia power
production by fuel type, 1992-2008e 13
Figure 5: Russia power production
by fuel type, 2008e 14
Figure 6: Russia power sectoral consumption, 2008e
15
Figure 7: Russia power consumption, trends and forecast, 1993-2020f
16
Figure 8: MCI Assessment Scale 18
Figure 9: MCI Assessment
Framework 19
Figure 10: MCI Scales 20
Figure 11: European Gas Market
Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 21
Figure 12: Gas Market Competitive
Intensity, Russia 22
Figure 13: European Power Market Competitive
Intensity, 2009-12 25
Figure 14: Power Market Competitive Intensity,
Russia 26
Figure 15: Market Competitive Intensity, Russia 28
Figure
16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 32
Figure 17:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 32
Figure 18: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 33
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Wholesale Market Fragmentation 34
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Retail Market Fragmentation 34
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded
Market Maturity 35
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market
Information 35
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer
Representation 36
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to
Switch 36
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