Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Regulation 3
Wholesale Environment
3
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 8
Pipelines
8
Storage 9
LNG 10
Electricity Market Overview 11
Industry
Landscape 11
Retail Market Players 11
Switching 13
Regulation
13
Wholesale Environment 15
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis
16
Electricity Infrastructure 20
Generation Capacity 20
Electricity Networks 21
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 23
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the
development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 23
The MCI Index shows
how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new
entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former
monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants.
23
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009 and
forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years after
full market opening 23
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics
grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer
Pull 24
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the
comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 25
Gas
Market Competitive Intensity 26
Poland' s gas ranking remains constant over
the forecast period 26
Poland' s Customer Pull metrics remain low during
the forecast period 27
None of the Market Framework metrics increase their
scores significantly between now and 2010 27
Effectiveness of Regulator
[2009: 3/10 2012: 4/10] 27
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 2/10 20120:
3/10] 27
Pricing Regime [2009: 3/10 2012: 4.5/10] 28
A lack of access
to wholesale gas supplies constrains Poland' s Supplier Push scores 28
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2.5/10] 28
Retail
Market Fragmentation [2009: 4.5/10 2012: 5.5/10] 28
Traded Market Maturity
[2009: 0.1/10 2012: 1.5/10] 28
Customer Pull metrics also remains at the
lower end of the scale by 2012 28
Access to Market Information [2009:
0.5/10 2012: 2/10] 28
Consumer Representation [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2.5/10]
28
Propensity to Switch [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10] 29
Electricity Market
Competitive Intensity 30
Poland' s power ranking changes only slightly over
the forecast period 30
Poland' s power market achieves an average score
overall 31
Market Framework scores will remain modest in 2010 31
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 31
Ease of Third Party
Access [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 5/10] 31
Pricing Regime [2009: 410 2012: 5/10]
32
Supplier Push metrics are likely to improve over the forecast period
32
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 8/10 2012: 9.5/10] 32
Retail
Market Fragmentation [2009: 7/10 2012: 8/10] 32
Traded Market Maturity
[2009: 4/10 2012: 5.5/10] 32
Customer Pull metrics are very much at the
lower end of the scale and are likely to remain so 32
Access to Market
Information [209: 3/10 2012: 4/10] 32
Consumer Representation [2009: 2/10
2012: 3/10] 32
Propensity to Switch [2009: 2/10 2012: 3.5/10] 33
Opportunities in the Polish gas market lag those potentially available in the
power market 33
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 34
MCI Scores
Summary 34
MCI Scoring Scales 37
APPENDIX 42
List of power
stations in Poland 42
Definitions 44
Ask the analyst 45
Datamonitor consulting 45
Disclaimer 45
List of Tables
Table 1:
Poland gas supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 2: Poland gas
storage sites 10
Table 3: Poland LNG terminals 10
Table 4: Poland
major power retail market players 11
Table 5: Poland power supply and
demand balance, 2007-08e 16
Table 6: Poland power transmission lines
22
Table 7: Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 2009 and 2012 34
Table 8: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 35
Table 9: MCI
Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 36
Table 10: Poland power generating
assets 42
List of Figures
Figure 1: Poland indigenous gas production
1990-2008e 5
Figure 2: Poland gas import supply sources, 2008e 6
Figure 3: Poland gas sectoral consumption, 2008e 7
Figure 4: Poland gas
consumption, trends and forecast, 1990-2020f 8
Figure 5: Major power
retail players market share in B2B segment, 2008 12
Figure 6: Major power
retail players market share in B2C segment, 2008 13
Figure 7: Poland power
production by fuel type, 1990-2008e 17
Figure 8: Poland power production
by fuel type, 2008e 18
Figure 9: Poland power sectoral consumption, 2008e
19
Figure 10: Poland power consumption, trends and forecast, 1990-2020f
20
Figure 11: Poland power generation capacity by fuel type 21
Figure
12: MCI Assessment Scale 23
Figure 13: MCI Assessment Framework 24
Figure 14: MCI Scales 25
Figure 15: European Gas Market Competitive
Intensity, 2009-12 26
Figure 16: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Poland
27
Figure 17: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 30
Figure 18: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 31
Figure 19: Market
Competitive Intensity, Poland 33
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 37
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 37
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
38
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
39
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 39
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 40
Figure 26:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 40
Figure 27: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 41
Figure 28: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 41
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