Forecast Insight: HIV - Cross-class fixed dose combinations drive continued growth

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Strategic scoping and focus
• Datamonitor insight into the disease market
• Related reports
• Upcoming related reports

MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW

• Market definition for this report
• Countries and regions included in this report
• Seven major market assessment
  • Current and future market overview
• Comparison with previous forecast
  • Both forecasts display an overall growth in the HIV market driven by new product launches
  • Truvada maintains a steady growth in updated forecasts
  • Additional pipeline drugs
• Rest of the world snapshot
  • Rest of the world sales accounted for 13% of global total antiretroviral sales
  • Outside the seven major markets the Canadian market remains the largest
  • Branded drugs are less popular in Rest of the World due to the availability of PEPFAR combinations

BRAND DYNAMICS

• Overview of competitive landscape
  • The top 10 brands accounted for 80% of total antiretroviral sales in 2008
  • Atripla will surpass Truvada in 2009
  • Reyataz displaces Kaletra as leading protease inhibitor
  • Despite being the fifth best selling antiretroviral, Epzicom sales lag behind Truvada
• Marketed drugs
  • Atripla (tenofovir disoproxil/emtricitabine/efavirenz; Gilead Sciences/Bristol Myers Squibb)
  • Reyataz (atazanavir; Bristol Myers Squibb)
  • Prezista (darunavir; Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson)
  • Isentress (raltegravir; Merck & Co)
• Pipeline drugs
  • Quad pill (tenofovir disoproxil/emtricitabine/ elvitegravir/GS 9350; Gilead Sciences)
  • Rilpivirine (TMC278; Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson)

BIBLIOGRAPHY

• Websites
• Others
• Datamonitor reports

APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

• Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
  • Standard units
  • Japanese market data
  • Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
• Forecast methodology

APPENDIX B

• Contributing experts
• Conferences attended
• Report methodology

TABLES

• Table: Comparison of leading branded drug sales ($m) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the seven major markets and the Rest of the World (ROW), 2008
• Table: Leading branded drug sales ($m) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the seven major markets, 2008 - 2018
• Table: Key products in late-stage R&D pipeline for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) , 2009
• Table: Datamonitor' s estimated launch dates for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) products in the seven major markets, 2008 - 2017

FIGURES

• Figure: Antiretroviral sales ($m) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) by type of product (marketed versus pipeline) in the seven major markets, 2004 - 2018
• Figure: Branded antiretroviral sales ($m) by drug class in the seven major markets, 2004 - 2018
• Figure: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) market share by region, 2008 - 2018
• Figure: Estimated number of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the US, 5EU and Japan, 1997 - 2007
• Figure: Comparison of Datamonitor' s 2008 and updated sales ($m) antiretroviral forecasts in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) for the seven major markets, 2007 - 2018
• Figure: Rest of the World versus seven major market sales ($m) split for antiretrovirals in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) market, 2008
• Figure: Number of people receiving antiretroviral drugs for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in low- and middle-income countries, 2002 - 07
• Figure: Annual global sales of antiretrovirals in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) market, 2004 - 08
• Figure: Market share of leading brands in 2008 and 2018 across the seven major markets
• Figure: Datamonitor' s 2008 and updated sales ($m) forecast for Atripla in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) across the seven major markets, 2008 - 2018
• Figure: Datamonitor' s 2008 and updated sales ($m) forecast for Reyataz in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) across the seven major markets, 2008 - 2018
• Figure: Datamonitor' s 2008 and updated sales ($m) forecast for Prezista in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) across the seven major markets, 2008 - 2018
• Figure: Datamonitor' s 2008 and updated sales ($m) forecast for Isentress in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) across the seven major markets, 2008 - 2018
• Figure: Datamonitor' s sales ($m) forecast for elvitegravir in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) across the seven major markets, 2008 - 2018
• Figure: Datamonitor' s sales ($m) forecast for Quad Pill in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) across the seven major markets, 2008 - 2018
• Figure: Datamonitor' s sales ($m) forecast for rilpivirine in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) across the seven major markets, 2008 - 2018