Prospects for a New Nuclear Renaissance in Europe

Table of Contents

DATAMONITOR VIEW

• CATALYST
• SUMMARY
• METHODOLOGY
• SOURCES

ANALYSIS

• The drivers for new nuclear build have evolved and the prospects for a nuclear renaissance in Europe today are very strong
  • Five drivers are fueling an increasingly probable European nuclear renaissance
• Having grown overly dependant on gas on the road to 2020, Europe' s new nuclear will address the imbalance post 2020
  • Post 2020, nuclear will displace some of Europe' s gas-fired generation only to find that it is unsuited to wind power generation
  • In Europe, new nuclear generation capacity will need to come online to offset ageing nuclear and diminishing coal
  • In the face of increasing environmental legislation, only nuclear power can truly offset increasing energy import dependency
  • Total lifecycle emissions from nuclear power generation are among the lowest of all of the power generation technologies
• Nuclear power generation is competitive and presents many advantages over other types of power generation
  • EU electricity generation projections suggest that nuclear energy is cost competitive with fossil fuel generation
  • In Europe, nuclear is expected to develop a greater economic advantage over fossil fuel technologies in the run up to 2030
  • Most of the renewable alternatives to nuclear power have major downsides and lack credibility as sources of clean baseload power
  • Shifts in political, environmental and technical landscapes have drawn out the comparative advantages of nuclear power
• To address the overlapping challenges of energy import dependency, security of supply and climate change, Europe will move towards greater levels of nuclear power generation
  • The French energy policy model has nuclear power at its core
  • In Germany, the planned - albeit improbable - phasing out of nuclear power would result in a significant energy supply gap
  • In the UK, all but one of the 19 reactors will be retired by 2023, with new generation plants not expected to come
  • UK energy policy has taken a clear and decisive step towards nuclear power generation
  • The Swedish government has overturned a near 30-year ban on nuclear plants
  • At present, 14 of Europe' s 27 Member States rely heavily and directly on nuclear power generation
  • European reliance on nuclear is set to grow
  • By 2030, net additions of nuclear power generation capacity will be highest in the UK, but could be higher still in Germany

FIGURES

• Figure: Today' s drivers for new nuclear build have evolved
• Figure: In the next decade, only gas will fill the gap left by Europe' s ageing, disenfranchised and environmentally challenged coal fleet
• Figure: By the time new nuclear capacity comes on board in Europe, wind capacity is expected to have doubled or tripled
• Figure: Capacity margins will not keep pace with future power demand unless significant new baseload capacity is built
• Figure: In the past decade, EU fossil fuel output growth has offset nuclear power output contraction, but this trend is likely to reverse post 2020
• Figure: In sharp contrast to fossil fuels, nuclear is a low-carbon energy source with a small environmental impact, like most renewables
• Figure: The relative costs of generating electricity from coal, gas and nuclear plants vary considerably from one location to another
• Figure: Nuclear will enjoy comparative economic benefits in countries with no direct access to low-cost fossil fuels that operate strong carbon penalties
• Figure: Shifts in political, environmental and technical landscapes have drawn out the comparative advantages of nuclear power
• Figure: From 2020, France will require 40 EPRs to fully replace its current capacity
• Figure: If Germany proceeds with its nuclear phase-out policy, by 2020 it will need to import some 25,000MWe of electricity as baseload
• Figure: Power reactors planned and proposed in the UK currently total in excess of 12GW
• Figure: But, current grid connection agreements for future nuclear plants could deliver 19GW
• Figure: At present, 14 of Europe' s 27 Member States rely heavily and directly on nuclear power generation
• Figure: European reliance on nuclear is set to grow
• Figure: By 2030, net additions of nuclear power generation capacity will be highest in the UK, but could be higher still in Germany