Abstract
Introduction
The obesity market is easily characterized as attractive, featuring a booming
patient potential needing long term therapy, but repeated product withdrawals
and failed pipeline candidates highlight the reality of increasingly cautious
regulatory bodies, reluctant payers, and a clinical community that puts more
stock in diet and exercise: $513.7m sales in 2008 fall far short of analyst
predictions.
Scope of this research
- Defining the key clinical characteristics of the obesity sector that
present a unique commercial challenge
- Translation of critical clinical and regulatory issues into pertinent
practical considerations for both incumbent players and new market entrants
- Clinical and commercial analysis of existing and late stage products
targeting the sector, qualified by key opinion leader interviews
- Seven major market forecasts for key products to 2018
Research and analysis highlights
The 125 million obese adults in 2008 across the US, Japan, France, Germany,
Italy, Spain and UK will grow to at least 143 million by 2018. If just 25% of
these adults were treated for one year with a dollar per day product,
achieving 80% compliance rates, market potential would rise from $8.6 billion
in 2008 to $10.5 billion in 2018
There may be some advantages to exploring head-to-head trials of existing
therapies, the combination use of drugs or demonstrating longer term
improvements to cardiovascular risks, but in the current environment this is
unlikely to expand the proportion of the obese population in which existing
and late stage pipeline products will be used.
GSK' s Alli failed to sustain US launch sales, Sanofi-Aventis' Acomplia has
been withdrawn. 27 clinical pipeline products discontinued between publication
of this report and its predecessor (2006) have cost at least $1.1 billion in
trial costs alone. Some developers will be facing administration or
liquidation rather than arranging partnering deals.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Understand why predictions for this market have been repeatedly over-stated
- Qualify market expectations against the practicalities of targeting this
unyielding market
- Assess the qualities of marketed and pipeline products and their
commercial handling to determine their realistic prospects
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