Abstract
Introduction
The global LNG sector is in a state of flux. A new tranche of LNG liquefaction
capacity has come on-stream in response to bullish energy demand prior to
2008. The subsequent financial crisis and the boom in US unconventional gas
extraction has created a glut in the market. Such developments are having an
increasing impact on European LNG metrics, in turn impacting on retail prices.
Scope of this research
- A detailed introduction to how the LNG market has developed regionally and
what drives current growth in Europe
- An overview of how LNG interacts with gas and other sources of power
generation, with particular emphasis on interplay with new and existing
pipelines
- A set of price case scenarios for European LNG prices, encapsulating the
effects of financial markets, geopolitics, technology and legislation
- A unique econometric model designed to explore the effects of upstream LNG
changes on European retail prices and utilities' margins
Research and analysis highlights
The current rash of new liquefaction capacity coming on-stream combined with
the effects of the global financial crisis will subdue European LNG prices in
the near term. This will be exaggerated in the short-term by on-going growth
of unconventional gas extraction in the US and the addition of new pipelines
into Europe
The differentiation between states' fiscal regimes and the margins utilities
receive means the role wholesale costs play in overall retail prices varies
across Europe. The impact of LNG price changes is essentially determined by
artificial inputs. This is the case albeit to a lesser extent even in
countries which rely heavily on LNG over pipes
Assuming current retail margins are maintained to 2015, residential retail
prices in Germany and France will be most affected by LNG-driven wholesale
price increases. Low margins in states such as Spain cushion the effects of
LNG price rises, even though Spain relies far more on LNG than on pipelines.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Understand the international LNG trade, and its impact on gas retailing
businesses across key European markets
- Gain insight into wholesale gas supply trends, and the link between
upstream supply scenarios and the retail market
- Explore your own assumptions using the interactive model; testing the
impact of different global LNG scenarios on retail prices and margins
- Delicious Digg it Stumble It!
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