Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Strategic scoping and focus
- Datamonitor insight into the influenza market
- Related reports
- Upcoming related reports
MARKET DEFINITION
- Market definition for this report
SEASONAL INFLUENZA VACCINE MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECAST
- Seven major markets
- Current and future market overview
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Opportunities and threats
- Forecast to 2018/19
- US
- Current market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Opportunities and threats
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Japan
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Opportunities and threats
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Five major European markets (5EU)
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Opportunities and threats
- Forecast to 2018/19
- France
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Germany
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Italy
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Spain
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- UK
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Rest of the world snapshot
- Current market assessment
- Unmet needs
- Vaccines with increased efficacy in the elderly constitute the largest
unmet need
- Experts still see a need for novel influenza treatment and prevention
strategies
- Needle-free administration techniques could make vaccination faster and
more convenient
- Faster and more flexible manufacturing technologies are particularly
important for pandemic vaccine supply
- Antigen sparing is a key focus for pandemic vaccination
- Improved efficacy in children is considered less important by most
experts
INFLUENZA VACCINES - KEY DEVELOPERS, PRODUCTS AND STRATEGIES
- Strategic Overview
- Trends in corporate strategy
- Improved immunogenicity, particularly in the elderly, is a key
development focus
- Alternative delivery routes could increase convenience and efficacy
- Manufacturing capacity continues to play an important role for corporate
strategies
- Vaccine manufacturers are looking to expand to additional geographies
- Pandemic vaccines offer government funding and stockpiling opportunities
- Sanofi Pasteur - the market leaders
- Corporate strategy overview
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- Novartis - the innovators
- Corporate strategy overview
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- GlaxoSmithKline - the lucky third
- Corporate strategy overview
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- AstraZeneca/MedImmune - the niche players
- Corporate strategy
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- CSL - the southern stars
- Corporate strategy
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- Solvay - looking east
- Corporate strategy
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- Portfolio assessment of other leading companies
- Other seasonal vaccines in development
- Other pandemic vaccines in clinical development (excluding influenza
A(H1N1))
INFLUENZA ANTIVIRALS
- Overview of competitive landscape
- US
- Japan
- 5EU
- Tamiflu (oseltamivir; Roche)
- Relenza (zanamivir; GlaxoSmithKline)
- Drivers of brand choice
- Tamiflu offers a more convenient mode of administration
- Relenza' s better resistance profile could increase the drug' s market
share
- Reports linking Tamiflu with neuropsychiatric events are perceived
negatively by parts of the medical community
- Outlook - balancing of stockpiles likely
- US formulary tier status for leading brands
- Trends in marketing strategies
- Marketing strategy for leading influenza antivirals
- Promotional spend
- Unmet needs
- Pipeline influenza antivirals
- Peramivir (Biocryst, Shionogi, Green Cross)
- CS-8958 (Biota, Daiichi Sankyo)
- Favipiravir/T-705 (Toyama)
- Innovative early stage compounds
THE 2009 INFLUENZA A(H1N1) PANDEMIC
- Background and timeline
- Over the last century, three influenza A pandemics have occurred
- The current influenza A(H1N1) pandemic continues to spread rapidly
across the globe
- Antivirals
- Key challenges for antiviral therapy of influenza A(H1N1)
- Vaccination against influenza A(H1N1)
- Key challenges for vaccine development and administration against
influenza A(H1N1)
- Key needs with regards to influenza A(H1N1) vaccine development and
production
- Established influenza vaccine and treatment providers will draw the
largest commercial benefit out of the current influenza(H1N1) pandemic
- Novartis - indirect benefits for adjuvant technology expected
- GlaxoSmithKline - the allrounders
- Roche - relying on ongoing need for Tamiflu
- Baxter - outpacing the competition in manufacturing
- Sanofi Pasteur - set to gain from capacity lead
- MedImmune - focusing on the US
- CSL - Australia and beyond
- There is room and need for other strategies such as universal vaccines or
influenza antibodies
- Success in universal influenza vaccine development has been limited so
far
- Influenza antibodies could provide a useful tool for the treatment of
severe cases of influenza
BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
- Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
- Standard units
- Forecast methodology
- Datamonitor forecast methodology
- APPENDIX B
- Contributing experts
- Conferences attended
- Report methodology
TABLES
- Table: Influenza vaccine recommendations, seven major markets, 2009
- Table: Summary of opportunities and threats in the influenza market, seven
major markets, 2009
- Table: Seven major markets - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast;
2005/06 - 2018/19
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations in key target groups,
US, 2009
- Table: Summary of opportunities and threats in the inflammatory bowel
disease market in the US, 2009
- Table: Estimated influenza vaccination rates, US, 2009
- Table: US - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 - 2018/19
- Table: US - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, Japan, 2009
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key target groups,
Japan, 2009
- Table: Summary of opportunities and threats in the influenza market,
Japan, 2009
- Table: Japan - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Japan - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: National influenza vaccine recommendations for individuals
suffering from underlying medical conditions (without regard to age); 5EU, 2009
- Table: Summary of opportunities and threats in the influenza market, 5EU,
2009
- Table: 5EU - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, France, 2009
- Table: Influenza vaccine prices per dose, France, 2005 - 2008
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations, France, 2009
- Table: France - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: France - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently approved and marketed seasonal influenza vaccines,
Germany, 2009
- Table: Influenza vaccine prices per dose, Germany, 2005 - 2008
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key risk groups,
Germany, 2009
- Table: Germany - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Germany - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, Italy, 2009
- Table: Influenza vaccine prices per dose, Italy, 2005-2009
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key risk groups,
Italy, 2009
- Table: Italy - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Italy - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, Spain, 2009
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key target groups,
Spain, 2009
- Table: Spain - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Spain - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, UK, 2009
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key risk groups, UK,
2009
- Table: UK - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 - 2018/19
- Table: UK - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Recent investments in influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity; 2009
- Table: Deals between major flu vaccine players in the Western world and
local manufacturers in emerging markets
- Table: Sanofi Pasteur - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal
influenza vaccines, 2009
- Table: Sanofi Pasteur - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic
influenza vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: Sanofi Pasteur - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: Novartis - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal influenza
vaccines, 2009
- Table: Novartis - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic influenza
vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: Novartis - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: GlaxoSmithKline - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal
influenza vaccines, 2009
- Table: GlaxoSmithKline - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic
influenza vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: GlaxoSmithKline - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: AstraZeneca/MedImmune - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal
influenza vaccines, 2009
- Table: AstraZeneca/MedImmune - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic
influenza vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: MedImmune - licensees for reverse genetics technology in influenza
- Table: AstraZeneca/MedImmune - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise,
2009
- Table: CSL - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal influenza
vaccines, 2009
- Table: CSL - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic influenza vaccines
(excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: CSL - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: Solvay - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal influenza
vaccines, 2009
- Table: Solvay - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic influenza
vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: Solvay - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: Other marketed seasonal vaccines across the seven major markets,
July 2009
- Table: Other seasonal vaccines in clinical development across the seven
major markets , July 2009
- Table: Other pandemic vaccines in clinical development (excluding H1N1)
across the seven major markets, July 2009
- Table: Leading influenza antivirals in the seven major markets, 2009
- Table: Tamiflu - drug profile, 2009
- Table: Tamiflu - SWOT analysis
- Table: Relenza - drug profile, 2009
- Table: Relenza - SWOT analysis
- Table: Representative formulary tier status in the US for leading
influenza antivirals, 2009
- Table: Marketing strategies employed by the companies behind the top two
influenza antivirals, 2009
- Table: Key influenza antivirals in late-stage R&D pipeline , 2009
- Table: Peramivir - Drug profile, 2009
- Table: Peramivir - clinical trial summary, 2009
- Table: Peramivir - SWOT analysis
- Table: CS-8958 - drug profile, 2009
- Table: CS-8958 - clinical trial summary, 2009
- Table: CS-8958 - SWOT analysis
- Table: Favipiravir - drug profile, 2009
- Table: Innovative early stage influenza antivirals, July 2009
- Table: Historic influenza A pandemics
- Table: Influenza A(H1N1) pandemic - timeline of events
- Table: Influenza A(H1N1) - cases and deaths across the seven major
markets, July 6, 2009
- Table: Antiviral stockpiles across the seven major markets, July 2009
- Table: Influenza A(H1N1) vaccine orders, seven major markets, July 2009
- Table: Novartis - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: GlaxoSmithKline - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: Baxter - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: Sanofi Pasteur - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: MedImmune - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: CSL - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: Selected universal influenza vaccines in development, July 2009
FIGURES
- Figure: Geographic distribution of influenza vaccine production
capacities, 2009
- Figure: Global influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity, 1994 - 2008
- Figure: Seven major markets - seasonal influenza vaccine market
forecast; 2005/06 - 2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast by country; 2005/6 -
2018/19
- Figure: Vaccine providers for the US market, 2000/2001 - 2008/2009
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group (1), US,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group (2), US,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: US government strategies to foster growth of the national flu
vaccine market
- Figure: Vaccine releases versus timepoint of vaccination, US, 2006/07 and
2007/08
- Figure: Influenza vaccine supply versus demand, US, 2003/2004 - 2008/2009
- Figure: Average seasonal influenza vaccine prices per dose, US, 2002 - 2009
- Figure: US - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: US - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, Japan,
2001/02 - 2005/06
- Figure: Japan - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Japan - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06
- 2018/19
- Figure: Total number of seasonal influenza vaccine doses distributed in
the 27 EU countries, seasons 2003/04 - 2007/08
- Figure: Countries recommending seasonal influenza vaccination for the
elderly; Europe, 2007
- Figure: Number of countries recommending seasonal influenza vaccination,
by medical condition; Europe, 2007
- Figure: Countries recommending seasonal influenza vaccination for pregnant
women; Europe, 2007
- Figure: Countries recommending seasonal influenza vaccination for healthy
household contacts; Europe, 2007
- Figure: Influenza vaccine doses distributed per 100,000 inhabitants of the
EU27 countries versus proportion of the population recommended for vaccination
(EU25), seasons 2003/04 - 2007/08
- Figure: Distribution of seasonal influenza vaccine doses per 100,000
inhabitants in EU27 countries, by country, seasons 2003 - 04 to 2007 - 08
- Figure: Influenza vaccination rates for the elderly aged 65 years and
older, 5EU, seasons 2006/07 and 2007/08
- Figure: Influenza vaccination rates high-risk individuals aged<65
years, 5EU, seasons 2006/07 and 2007/08
- Figure: Influenza vaccination rates in healthcare workers, 5EU, seasons
2006/07 and 2007/08
- Figure: Vaccinated population by age group, 5EU, season 2006/07
- Figure: Use of influenza mass media campaigns across Europe, 2007
- Figure: 5EU - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, France,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: France - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: France - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06
- 2018/19
- Figure: Cumulative number of doses of seasonal influenza vaccine released,
Germany, 2002/03 - 2008/09
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group,
Germany, 2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: Germany - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Germany - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast;
2005/06 - 2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, Italy,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: Italy - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Italy - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06
- 2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, Spain,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: Spain - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Spain - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06
- 2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, UK,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: UK - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: UK - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Influenza vaccine distribution globally and by WHO region
- Figure: Evolution of seasonal influenza vaccine distribution by WHO region
- Figure: Unmet needs in influenza prevention, 2009
- Figure: Comparative positioning of the six leading influenza vaccine
manufacturers, 2009
- Figure: Trends in corporate strategy for influenza vaccine development,
2009
- Figure: Sanofi Pasteur - influenza vaccine sales, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Sanofi Pasteur - share influenza vaccines of overall vaccine
sales; 2004 - 2008
- Figure: GlaxoSmithKline - influenza vaccine sales, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: GlaxoSmithKline - influenza vaccines sales' share of overall
vaccine sales; 2004 - 2008
- Figure: AstraZeneca/MedImmune: FluMist sales, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: FluMist versus injected influenza vaccines - CDC and private
sector costs/dose in the US, 2002 - 08
- Figure: Solvay - influenza vaccine sales, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Pipeline trends in influenza vaccines, June 2009
- Figure: Pipeline focus for seasonal flu vaccine developers, 2009
- Figure: Influenza antivirals - sales and volume use, 7MM, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Influenza antivirals - geographic split of sales and volume use,
7MM, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: US - influenza antiviral market shares, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Japan - influenza antiviral market shares, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: 5EU - influenza antiviral market shares, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Tamiflu - sales and volume use, seven major markets, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Seasonal versus pandemic sales for Tamiflu, global, Q1/2007 -
Q2/2009
- Figure: Relenza - sales and volume use, seven major markets, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Drivers of brand choice for influenza antivirals, 2009
- Figure: Promotional spend for leading influenza antivirals, seven major
markets, 2005/06 - 2007/08
- Figure: Type of promotional spend for leading influenza antivirals, seven
major markets, 2005/06 - 2007/08
- Figure: Unmet needs in influenza antiviral therapy, 2009
- Figure: Favipiravir: mechanism of action
- Figure: Confirmed influenza A(H1N1) cases globally, July 6, 2009
- Figure: Datamonitor' s patient-based vaccine forecasting model -
influence factors
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