Abstract
The solar cell market recorded more than 40% average annual growth rate from
2007 to 3Q 2008 due to the government support policies of many countries and
the importance of the photovoltaic business considering the global
environmental issues. The poly-silicon, a raw material for the crystalline
solar cell, became scarce due to the high growth rate, and the spot price of
short-term contract recorded an increase up to USD 400/Kg to show the scarcity
in the raw material supply. A number of companies announced their plans to
join the poly-silicon business which showed a high earning rate.
The graph below illustrates a data collected by analyzing trends of 80 new
companies including the 7 major global poly-silicon makers. It shows a
forecast of solar cell p-Si supply volume by three scenarios. The p-Si supply
volume was projected to exceed the demand starting in 2009 and will record the
highest surplus in supply in 2010.
A short-term (2009~2010) surplus in supply, like in Scenario 2, was expected
when considering the potentials to delay the large-scale investment by newly
joining companies due to the global economic slump by 2009 to the first half
of 2010 and to cut the productions of the conventional p-Si makers. It
appeared possible to see a reverse effect of the scarcity in the raw material
supply starting in 2011. The conventional makers focused in the product
differentiation by enhancing the quality and purity of the poly-silicon and
propelled to secure a stable poly-silicon price.
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