Abstract
Introduction
The atypical antipsychotics market in the United States, Europe, and Japan,
valued at an estimated $15.9 billion in sales at ex-manufacturer level in
2007, is expected to expand to over $17.8 billion by 2011, before shrinking to
$13.5 billion in 2012. The primary drivers of market growth will be the
addition of new agents, new formulations of currently marketed drugs, and
approvals in new indications such as major depression and generalized anxiety
disorder. However, the launch of generic formulations of risperidone,
olanzapine, quetiapine, ziprasidone, and paliperidone will lead to an overall
decline of the market during the forecast period.
The atypical antipsychotics market has undergone huge shifts in market
leadership that will continue over the forecast period. Eli Lilly' s Zyprexa
has been the U.S. sales leader for many years. However, in 2006, AstraZeneca' s
Seroquel overtook Zyprexa' s leading position in the U.S. market, and Janssen' s
Risperdal overtook Zyprexa' s position as the sales leader for the seven major
markets. Changes in market leadership will continue over the forecast period
as four of the five leading atypicals (Risperdal, Zyprexa, Seroquel, and
Pfizer' s Geodon) face generic competition.
Questions Answered in This Report
- Janssen led the atypical antipsychotics market in 2007, with an estimated
market share of 27.7%, followed closely by AstraZeneca with 25.4% and Eli
Lilly with 24.8%; however, by 2012, Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka
Pharmaceuticals will hold approximately 37.1% of the market. What strategies
will Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka follow to secure a dominant market position
in the atypical antipsychotics market by the end of the forecast period?
- Four of the top five leading atypical antipsychotics--Janssen' s Risperdal,
Eli Lilly' s Zyprexa, AstraZeneca' s Seroquel, and Pfizer' s Geodon-will face
generic erosion before 2012. How will Janssen, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, and
Pfizer fare in the market following the patent expiry of their leading brands?
What strategies are these companies employing to face generic erosion and will
they be successful?
- Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka' s Abilify was approved by the FDA for adjunctive
therapy of major depression in November 2007. AstraZeneca' s Seroquel will
likely be approved for major depression and generalized anxiety disorder in
2009. How will the approval of these agents in new indications affect sales of
key competing agents? Which indications will see the greatest growth in
branded atypical sales? How will each indication be affected by the launch of
generics?
- Janssen' s Invega is expected to be the most successful of the emerging
atypical brands, despite slow uptake in the first three months of its launch.
What element of this brand will contribute to its success? How will other
emerging drugs fare in a mature market that includes generics? What brands
will be replaced by these emerging agents?
Scope
Markets Covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United
Kingdom, and Japan.
Competitive Analysis: Detailed discussion of major competitors
including Eli Lilly, Janssen (Johnson & Johnson), AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers
Squibb, Otsuka Pharmaceutical, and Pfizer; as well as emerging competitors
Wyeth, Solvay Pharmaceuticals, Schering-Plough/Organon, H. Lundbeck, Dainippon
Sumitomo, Vanda, and Forest Laboratories. Included for each competitor is an
analysis of the company' s neuroscience product portfolio, strategic
positioning, and development pipeline in neuroscience. The report features an
indepth discussion of leading brands, sales and market position,
strengths/weaknesses/opportunities/threats (SWOT) analysis, ongoing
postmarketing clinical trials, and strategic initiatives.
Physician Perception of Key Brands: Analysis of physician perceptions
of the atypical antipsychotic market based on a custom survey of 31 U.S.-based
primary care physicians and 31 U.S.-based psychiatrists. The survey is
brand-focused and examines physician perceptions of key competitors, brand
attributes, messaging, and uptake of emerging agents.
Epidemiology: Total prevalent and diagnosed cases for each indication
in each of the major markets are presented for 2007 and 2012. Total
drug-treated cases for each indication in each of the major markets are
presented in an annualized forecast from 2007 to 2012.
Market Forecast: Annualized sales forecasts for branded agents,
including the uptake of new agents, are presented by region, indication,
formulation, and brand from 2007 to 2012.
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