Brands & Strategies: Alzheimer's Disease

Abstract

Introduction

In 2007, the Alzheimer' s disease (AD) market, valued at more than $3 billion in the United States, Europe, and Japan, was led by sales of Eisai/Pfizer' s Aricept. The growth of all the currently available agents will decline by the end of our forecast, a combined effect of generic entry and competition from newly emerging agents. Significant unmet clinical need exists and provides an attractive commercial opportunity for new AD treatments that demonstrate superior efficacy over currently available treatments, with the greatest opportunities for agents demonstrating disease modification. Four new therapies - Elan/Wyeth' s bapineuzumab, Eli Lilly' s LY-2062430, Myriad/Lundbeck' s Flurizan, and Medivation' s Dimebon - are set to enter the market by 2012. The launch of these drugs will shift the AD treatment landscape away from traditional symptomatic therapies and toward higher-priced, innovative disease-modifying agents. As AD treatment patterns shift, physician education and awareness of these emerging factors will be a critical step in their adoption. By the end of our study period, bapineuzumab will dominate the AD market, and its growth will help drive the market to reach $3.9 billion in 2012.

• In 2007, the AD market was dominated by Aricept' s makers, Eisai and Pfizer, commanding more than half of the AD market share. How have Eisai and Pfizer secured such a dominant market share for Aricept? How will Eisai and Pfizer fare in the market following the patent expiry of their leading brand? What can the emerging competitors learn from Eisai and Pfizer' s strategies to ensure the successful promotion of their novel agents in the AD market?
• With novel therapies emerging, product marketing will be central to agent uptake. Our primary research indicates that physicians and AD patient caregivers respond to a discrete set of information channels. What sources of marketing spend provide the highest return? Do physicians and caregivers respond to different channels of information? Which brand messages resonate and which are forgettable?
• Physicians have long favored Aricept as their AD agent of choice. Why do physicians favor Aricept, and what do physicians think about the attributes of other currently marketed agents? What are the perceived advantages and/or disadvantages of emerging therapies versus available therapies?
• Wyeth/Elan' s bapineuzumab is expected to become an AD blockbuster and has the potential to radically change the AD market dynamics. Which emerging drugs have the potential to compete with bapineuzumab? What is the annualized forecast for current and emerging AD brands? What strategies will Elan and Wyeth pursue to secure a dominant market position in AD by the end of the forecast period?
• Four new agents will enter the AD market by 2012: Elan/Wyeth' s bapineuzumab, Eli Lilly' s LY-2062430, Myriad/Lundbeck' s Flurizan, and Medivation' s Dimebon. Three of these agents have potential disease modifying activity. How will the availability of these novel agents alter physicians' prescribing habits? Which competing brands will be most affected?

Scope

• Markets Covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan.
• Competitive Analysis: Detailed discussion of major competitors, including Pfizer, Eisai, Novartis, Johnson & Johnson (Ortho-McNeil Neurologics and Janssen), Lundbeck, and Forest Laboratories; discussion of emerging competitors, including Wyeth, Elan, Myriad Genetics, Eli Lilly, and Medivation, with an analysis of each company' s Alzheimer' s disease product portfolio, strategic positioning, and development pipeline. The report features an in-depth discussion of leading brands, sales and market position, strengths/weakness/opportunities/threats (SWOT) analysis, ongoing postmarketing clinical trials, and strategic initiatives.
• Physician Perception of Key Brands: Analysis of physician perceptions of the Alzheimer' s disease market based on a custom survey of 50 U.S.-based physicians. The survey is brand-focused and examines physician perceptions of key competitors, brand attributes, messaging, and uptake of emerging agents.
• Caregiver Perception of Key Brands: Analysis of caregiver perceptions of the Alzheimer' s disease market based on a custom survey of 134 Alzheimer' s patient caregivers. The survey is brand-focused and examines caregiver' s perceptions of current brands, response to messaging, and unmet needs.
• Epidemiology: Total prevalent and diagnosed cases for Alzheimer' s disease in each of the major markets under study are presented for 2007 and 2012. Total drug-treated Alzheimer' s disease cases in each of the major markets are presented in an annualized forecast from 2007 to 2012.
• Market Forecast: Annualized sales forecasts for branded agents, including the uptake of new agents, presented by region, indication, formulation, and brand from 2007 to 2012.