Abstract
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Executive summary
2008: a bad year
The year 2008 has not been a positive one for the market in clothing and
footwear, which declined significantly relative to 2007 in both volume and
value terms. The clothing market declined by 7.2% in value and 4.1% in volume,
while the footwear market declined by 6.0% in value and 3.5% in units. These
figures are attributable to the serious economic crisis that is affecting
Spain, which has led to reductions in consumption across all sectors, in both
volume and value terms, and the market for clothing and footwear is no
exception. No one expected an economic crisis as virulent as the current one.
Spain is in recession, with the highest level of unemployment in 15 years, and
an imminent danger of deflation. The current trend indicates that 2009 will be
another very difficult year for clothing and footwear, with significant
reductions in the market in both value and volume terms.
Government agencies estimate that the crisis will begin to ease from mid- to
late 2010. There has been no growth in value or volume sales in 2008, and none
is expected for 2009. The impact of the crisis has been less severe on some
subsectors, such as children' s wear (because parents seek to minimise its
effects on their children) or underwear and nightwear, but other subsectors,
such as coats and jackets, are suffering deeper declines than most consumers
will be able to endure over time.
Casual style becoming more popular
The casual/streetwear style of clothing has increased its presence in the
Spanish market year on year, as new consumption patterns, new habits, a
gradual relaxation of workplace dress codes and improvements in the quality of
products supplied by large firms all provided the opportunity for its sales to
grow.
Imports vs domestic production
The level of imports in this sector, especially from South East Asia,
increased considerably during 2007, and especially in 2008, because of the
economic crisis. These products are of lower quality but also have lower
prices, so they meet the current pattern of consumer demand. As a result, the
domestic manufacturing industry for clothing and footwear is experiencing a
major crisis, with the loss of nearly 20,000 jobs in 2008. If the crisis
persists over a long period, many small family businesses will be forced to
close.
In addition, the Spanish textiles market is highly fragmented, with more than
4,000 companies involved, which makes it very difficult for the various
businesses to unite to fight for common interests.
Falling average prices and changing distribution patterns
The market structure changed in 2008, to one based on narrower range of
products sold at lower unit prices, as retailers sought to maintain the pace
of consumption; this was not the case in 2007, when the average unit prices in
most sectors continued to increase. Distribution patterns have also changed,
with increases in the shares of mixed and grocery retailers (as supermarkets
sold more clothing and footwear) and a marked growth in sales over the
Internet (where suppliers focused mainly on discounted products).
The uncertain future (2008--2013)
The prospects for the market over the forecast period will depend entirely on
the duration of the current economic crisis within Spain. The most optimistic
projections foresee an improvement in the economic indicators from the end of
2010 while the worst anticipate that the recession will last until 2012. The
period 2008--2013 will therefore be one of uncertainty for consumers,
characterised by a first phase in which markets will contract, in both volume
and value terms, and a second phase, which will begin to see a gradual
improvement
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