The Recession and its Impact on Pharmaceutical M&A Activity

Introduction - The Recession Defined

Part 1 - The Recession Traced

• Roots
  • Figure 1: US Consumer Debt Jan. 2001 - April 2009
  • Figure 2: Quarterly US Consumer Debt Ratio 2001 - 2008
• Problems in the Financial Markets
  • Figure 3: European Interbank Lending Rates (EURIBOR)
• How to Stem the Tide
  • Figure 4: Average Interest Rates charged on short terms loans to business
  • Figure 5: Euro and US Monthly Commercial Paper Rates 2003 - 2009
  • Figure 5: US Manufacturing Index February 2001 - May 2009
• The Real Economy
  • Figure 6: US Manufacturing Index January 1972 - May 2009
  • Figure 7: Month on Month % Change in US Manufacturing, January 1972 - May 2009

Part 2 - Immunity Declined

• Immunity Explained
• Development-Stage Companies
  • CV Therapeutics
    • Table 1: CV Therapeutics' Accounts
    • Figure 8: CV Therapeutics Cash Flows
  • Amylin Pharmaceuticals
    • Table 2: Amylin Pharmaceuticals Accounts
    • Figure 9: Amylin Pharmaceuticals Cash Flows
• The Ability to Manufacture and Positive Cash Flow
  • Table 3: CV Therapeutics Underlying Loss and Finance Income 2000 - 2008 (US$ million)
  • Figure 10: CV Therapeutics Underlying Loss and Finance Income 2000 - 2008
• Generics
  • Figure 11: Diflucan Annual Sales
  • Figure 12: Lipitor Annual Sales
  • Figure 13: Lipitor Cumulative Revenues from 1999
  • Figure 14: US Pharmaceutical and Medicines Index

Part 3 - The Response

• Mergers and Acquisitions
  • Gilead - CV Therapeutics
    • Table 4: Gilead Accounts
    • Table 5: Gilead Principal Product Sales and Forecasts
    • Figure 15: Gilead Principal Products Sales and Forecasts
  • Johnson & Johnson - Cougar Biotechnology
    • Table 6: Johnson & Johnson Accounts
    • Table 7: Cougar Biotechnology Accounts
    • Table 8: Johnson & Johnson - Selected Product Sales and Forecasts
    • Figure 16: Johnson & Johnson - Selected Product Sales and Forecasts
  • GlaxoSmithKline - Stiefel
    • Table 9: GlaxoSmithKline Accounts
    • Table 10: GlaxoSmithKline - Selected Product Sales and Forecasts
  • Pfizer - Wyeth
    • Table 12: Wyeth Accounts
    • Table 13: Pfizer Selected Product Sales and Forecasts
    • Table 14: Wyeth Selected Product Sales and Forecasts
    • Figure18: Pfizer and Wyeth Leading Product Sales and Forecasts
    • Figure19: Pfizer and Wyeth Combined Sales
  • Merck & Co - Schering-Plough
    • Table 15: Merck & Co Accounts
    • Table 17: Merck & Co Selected Product Sales and Forecasts
    • Table 18: Schering-Plough Selected Product Sales and Forecasts
    • Figure 20: Merck & Co and Schering-Plough Selected Product Sales
  • Roche - Genentech
    • Table 19: Roche Accounts
    • Table 20: Genentech Accounts
    • Table 21: Roche Selected Product Sales and Forecasts
    • Figure 21: Roche Selected Product Sales
    • Table 22: Reported M&A activity from 1st December 2008 to 2nd July 2009
  • Anticipated Deals

Conclusions