Abstract
During fiscal 2008, Forest has attempted to surmount the loss of Celexa, a
major product that was selling around US$1 billion before the entry of
generics. This revenue reduction has been offset somewhat by sales growth for
both Lexapro and Namenda, and an increase in Benicar co-promotion income.
Consequently, in fiscal 2007 and 2008, Forest achieved earnings growth and
record sales. However, the loss of Celexa leaves Forest substantially
dependent on the sales of its two principal products, Lexapro and Namenda,
which is somewhat risky. Furthermore, Forest' s licence agreement with Lundbeck
for these products is set to expire in 2010. Given that Lexapro may lose
patent protection shortly after this date, Espicom expects the licence term to
be extended to the end of our forecast period, when generic competition is
expected to impact sales.
The patent extension for Namenda and the launch of Bystolic will relieve some
of this pressure on Forest, however, the company will need to achieve approval
for a number of its promising R&D candidates to secure long-term growth.
Forest' s three candidate compounds (milnacipran, aclidinium and neramexone)
have a combined forecasted sales total of US$1,085.4 million for fiscal 2013,
which is around half the sales Lexapro is currently generating.
The acquisition of Cerexa provides Forest with major opportunities in an
entirely new therapeutic area, the hospital injectable anti-infective market,
which urgently needs innovative drugs because of the persistent and inevitable
development of increased resistance to existing antibiotics. Cerexa' s most
advanced product, ceftaroline, is now in Phase III studies.
This new strategic analysis report Forest Laboratories: Pipeline " Products "
Performance " Potential, provides a complete and critical review of the
company and includes unique and independent assessments and forecasts of key
products. Buyers of the web edition receive online access for one year via an
easy-to-use interface with fast navigation and a full text search facility.
All formats are the same price.
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