Abstract
US demand to increase 4.5% annually through 2013
Demand in the US for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC)
equipment is forecast to increase 4.5 percent per year to $17 billion in 2013.
Advances will be driven by a recovery in residential construction spending
from a low 2008 base. Demand will also benefit from interest in more energy
efficient HVAC systems, caused by volatile energy prices. Public and private
rebates, credits and other incentives will also encourage owners to upgrade to
models with efficiency ratings that are at or above ENERGY STAR levels.
Ongoing changes in federal regulations regarding minimum efficiency
requirements for many of these systems and the phase-out of ozonedepleting
refrigerants will also favorably affect sales of HVAC equipment. HVAC
shipments are forecast to advance somewhat slower than demand at 4.0 percent
per year to $15.2 billion in 2013, as import growth from Asia and Mexico
continues, particularly for more basic systems, and domestic production
continues to shift outside the US.
Small geothermal category to be fastest growing
The choice among various fuels used in HVAC systems is largely affected by the
convenience, environmental friendliness, availability and price of the fuels,
and the initial costs, operational costs and efficiency of the systems that
use the fuels. In 2008, electric powered HVAC systems accounted for 83 percent
of US sales value and natural gas-burning systems accounted for 14 percent of
sales. Systems operating on geothermal energy will post the strongest gains,
albeit from a very small base, driven by the tax credits available for such
systems installed between 2009 and 2016.
Heat pumps to remain dominant heating equipment
In 2008, heat pumps accounted for the largest share of heating equipment value
demand and will account for 52 percent in 2013. Additionally, heat pumps are
expected to post the strongest gains through 2013. Heat pump demand benefits
from the ability of these units to provide efficient heating and cooling in
moderate climates, as well as the increasing availability of more efficient
innovations in low temperature and geothermal versions. While warm air
furnaces will continue to account for the second largest share of heating
equipment sales through 2013, this segment is expected to lose market share
over the period. Sales of warm air furnaces will be supported by their
relatively low initial cost, availability using most fuel types and
amenability to installation with other central home comfort systems.
Room air conditioners to pace cooling equipment
Unitary air conditioners will remain the largest segment in the cooling
equipment industry, accounting for 71 percent of total value demand in 2013.
Gains are expected to be slightly above average over this period. Room air
conditioners are expected to post the strongest gains through 2013 as quieter
and more efficient units become available and residential construction
recovers from depressed 2008 levels. Most other types of cooling equipment
will be hampered by their widespread use in nonresidential applications, a
market which is due to slow from a high 2008 base. The cooling equipment
industry is affected by a variety of regulations, including those on
ozone-depleting refrigerants. As a result, the chlorine-free refrigerant
HFC-410A is being phased in across a variety of price points by most
manufacturers.
Study coverage
HVAC Equipment is a new Freedonia industry study presents historic demand data
(1998, 2003, 2008) plus forecasts for 2013 and 2018 by fuel type, product and
market. The study also considers market environment factors, assesses the
industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles 36 US industry
players.
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