Abstract
Global HEV demand to be at 4 million units in 2015
Worldwide demand for hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) will advance rapidly to
4.0 million units in 2015. HEVs are expected to quickly penetrate the world
light vehicle market in response to rising energy costs and increased
emissions regulations worldwide. Cost disparities between HEVs and
conventional light vehicles -- currently estimated at between $2,000 and
$4,000 dollars -- are expected to decline as production volumes increase. The
primary markets for HEVs will be within Triad countries (i.e., the US, Western
Europe and Japan), although the rapidly-growing Chinese market is also
expected to experience relatively strong demand for these fuel efficient and
environmentally friendly vehicles.
US HEV market to grow the fastest among Triad nations
Within the Triad, the US market is expected to experience the highest levels
of demand for HEVs, due to rising fuel costs, the market' s unique Corporate
Average Fuel Economy requirements, and the lack of significant demand for
light vehicle diesels beyond the full-size truck and sport utility vehicle
categories. Despite being less cost-effective than internal combustion engine
(ICE) vehicles, HEVs have carved out a niche in the US that in part appears to
be animated by the extra cost associated with the vehicles, especially
regarding HEVs that are both uniquely styled and focused on delivering
superior fuel economy. On the other hand, recent attempts by some OEMs to
position HEVs as high performance alternatives to pure ICEs seem to be
stalling. Demand for HEVs in Europe, where overall light vehicle diesel demand
has already reached 50 percent of the total market, is expected to be
significantly lower than in the US. Japan will see increased demand for HEVs
going forward, as government agencies and allied associations continue to put
tax and other incentives in place to stimulate demand.
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