Abstract
US demand to more than triple from 2005 to 2010 due to falling price of solar power
By 2010, demand for photovoltaic modules is expected to more than triple from
2005 levels to 531 megawatts. Advances will be driven by the falling price of
solar power, which will stem from technological innovations, growing economies
of scale and a rising level of government tax incentives and rebates at both
the state and federal levels. Gains will also be spurred by consumer interest
in renewable energy sources and concern about the volatility of oil and other
conventional energy prices and supplies.
In the near term, advances will be slowed by a shortage of solar-grade
silicon, a key material for the most widely used photovoltaic technology.
However, this problem is likely to fade by 2010 as silicon producers complete
planned expansions and as newer photovoltaic technologies that use little or
no silicon become more widely used.
Thin films to lead growth in photovoltaic cells
US shipments of photovoltaic cells were dominated by crystalline silicon
versions that accounted for 76 percent of volume shipments in 2005. Going
forward, thin films (e.g., amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, gallium
arsenide, and copper, indium, gallium and diselenide types) will post far more
dramatic growth, advancing to more than eleven times their 2005 level by 2010
as a growing number of manufacturers switch from pilot to large-scale
production. Advances will be driven by the cost advantages involved in using
little or no silicon. Gains will also be driven by the ability to use these
materials in building integrated photovoltaic applications within roofing
shingles, curtain wall and others.
In 2005, the key market for photovoltaic modules (which are composed of a
series of cells installed on a substrate) was power generation, accounting for
85 percent of demand. Within that category, on-grid installations accounted
for the largest share of demand stemming from net metering programs
implemented with state governments and local utilities, and a simpler total
system which, unlike offgrid systems, does not require batteries and
supplemental generators for power after dark. Other applications include
manufactured goods, communications equipment, transportation equipment and
water systems.
California leading market
The Pacific subregion accounted for the largest share of photovoltaic module
demand in 2005, due to the large market created in California by a number of
state government incentives, including 2006' s California Solar Initiative that
features the Million Solar Roofs program, and weather conditions that are
amenable to solar power generation. Study coverage
Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, Solar Energy Products, presents historical
demand data plus forecasts to 2010 and 2015 for photovoltaic cells and modules
by type and US region. The study also considers market environment factors,
evaluates company market share and profiles 31 leading competitors.
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