Abstract
Global demand to rise 4.2% annually through 2011
World carbon black demand is forecast to rise 4.2 percent per year through
2011 to eleven million metric tons, bolstered by a healthy global rubber
market over the same period. The vast majority of carbon black finds use as a
reinforcement in vulcanized rubber goods, including around two-thirds for
tires alone. Carbon black demand from the tire sector is projected to increase
4.2 percent per year through 2011 to 7.1 million metric tons. The smaller
non-tire rubber carbon black market will expand 4.0 percent per year through
2011 to 2.8 million metric tons.
Asia/Pacific region to post strongest market gains
The Asia/Pacific region, excluding Japan, will post the strongest gains in
carbon black demand through 2011. The large markets of China and India will
post particularly impressive gains due to a continuing rapid expansion in
their respective motor vehicle and tire industries that will be driven by
robust economic growth in both nations. China and India saw the largest
increases in new carbon black capacity among all countries of the world over
the 2001-2006 period, a trend that should continue through 2011.
Demand for carbon black in the developed parts of the world will continue to
post below-average gains through 2011, with the large US and Japanese markets
holding particularly weak prospects. Carbon black sales growth in Western
Europe will recover from recent declines, but continue to significantly lag
the global average through 2011. In most developed markets, carbon black
capacity utilization rates will remain at 95 percent or higher, since new
plant construction activity has reached a standstill in light of limited and
uncertain growth prospects.
North America and Western Europe, which produced close to half of the world' s
carbon black in 1996, will account for just 28 percent in 2011. Conversely,
the Asia/Pacific region, which produced 36 percent of the world' s carbon black
in 1996, will provide 51 percent in 2011. Asia and Latin America will account
for a majority of new carbon black capacity through 2011.
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