Abstract
US demand for lubricants to stabilize through 2012
US demand for lubricants will stabilize through 2012, an improvement from the
declines experienced during the period from 2002 to 2007, but still
significantly lagging growth in GDP. Advances will largely be a result of
increased manufacturing activity, fueling demand for industrial lubricants
such as hydraulic fluids, process oils and greases. Additionally, engine oils
and transmission fluids will benefit from the increasing number of motor
vehicles in use. However, volume gains will be restricted by trends toward
longer-lasting lubricants, which extend oil drain intervals and reduce overall
lubricant requirements. Market value will approach $20 billion in 2012, driven
by shifts toward higher-quality formulations and the continued impact of high
base oil costs.
Environmental concerns drive market for nontraditional lubricants
Significant shifts in demand for lubricating base oils are expected, as
performance requirements of finished lubricants continue to change. Higher
quality basestocks such as Group II, II+ and III petroleum oils, as well as
synthetic types, are expected to increase their share of the market at the
expense of Group I and naphthenic base oils. Better quality base oils are
necessary for lubricants to comply with the variety of new standards in the
industry, including ILSAC GF-5 motor oils, API CJ-4 diesel engine oils, and
DEXRON-VI transmission fluids. Environmental concerns will also drive demand
for re-refined basestocks and products derived from bio-based sources such as
soybean oils.
Engine oil quality continues to improve
Demand for engine oils -- which accounted for just over half of total
lubricant demand in 2007 -- will be boosted by the increasing number of motor
vehicles in use, although this will be offset somewhat by trends toward less
frequent oil changes. Process oils usage will be hindered by trends toward
minimum quantity lubrication and dry machining. Demand for transmission and
hydraulic fluids is projected to reverse recent declines, although growth will
be limited by changing standards for automatic transmission fluids, which will
continue to increase drain intervals.
Study coverage
Lubricants, a new Freedonia industry study presents historical demand data
(1997, 2002 and 2007) plus forecasts for 2012 and 2017 by lubricant base oil
(e.g., petroleum, synthetic, re-refined, bio-based), type (e.g., engine,
process, general industrial, transmission and hydraulic), and market (e.g.,
nondurable goods manufacturing, light vehicle aftermarket, commercial/
industrial). The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates
company market share and profiles nearly 50 industry players, including
Ashland, BP, Chevron, CITGO, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Shell.
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