Abstract
Global demand to increase 1.6% per year through 2012
World lubricant demand will increase 1.6 percent per year to 40.5 million
metric tons in 2012. Growth will be aided by the ongoing expansion of the
world motor vehicle park, as well as by a rebound in manufacturing and other
industrial activity from the global economic slowdown of 2008 and 2009.
Advances will be strongest in the Asia/Pacific region due to ongoing rapid
industrialization as well as rising car ownership rates. Both of these trends
will also favor healthy growth in the Africa/Mideast region and Latin America.
Meanwhile, the greater availability of advanced, high performance lubricants,
greater global competition and increasingly stringent environmental rules will
result in reduced or negative growth in lubricant demand in the more developed
countries of North America and Western Europe, as well as in Eastern Europe
and Japan.
China, India to lead growth in developing countries
Despite the downturn in the global motor vehicle market in late 2008 and early
2009, motor vehicle lubricant demand will continue to expand throughout the
forecast period. Increases in lubricant demand will be led by strong gains in
the Asia/Pacific region due to rapid expansion of the motor vehicle park in
developing countries such as China and India. Healthy growth will also occur
in Latin America and the Africa/Mideast region, while advances in Eastern
Europe will be below average. However, a trend toward increased drain
intervals, influenced in part by the growing availability of superior, high
performance synthetic lubricants, will result in declining demand in Western
Europe as well as below average growth in North America.
While the fastest growth will be in manufacturing and other markets, it will
still represent a slowdown from the 2002 to 2007 period as the global economic
slowdown of 2008 and 2009 restrains upward advances in lubricant demand
through 2012. The Asia/Pacific region, led by China, will continue to be the
primary driver of growth in these markets due to companies worldwide pursuing
the region' s key advantages of relatively low labor costs and political
stability. Latin America and the Africa/Mideast region will also achieve near
or above average growth, respectively, in manufacturing as significant
countries in both regions continue to develop their industrial bases.
Engine oils will remain dominant, process oils to exhibit fastest growth
In terms of product types, engine oils will continue to account for the
greatest share of lubricant demand going forward. This will primarily reflect
the importance of transportation in an increasingly global economy, both from
a consumer and commercial perspective. The fastest gains will be achieved in
process oils due to the greater difficulty of boosting consumption efficiency
of these lubricants relative to hydraulic and metalworking fluids, both of
which will experience below average gains as companies everywhere work to
reduce unit consumption in an effort to maintain competitiveness.
Despite the slow growth in hydraulic and metalworking fluids, significant
value opportunities will still exist for the introduction of new, higher
performance oils, and/or more environmentally friendly fluids that meet the
increasingly strict regulations found in developed countries. This will be
reflected in the above average advances in nonconventional lubricant demand
going forward, even as traditional petroleum-based lubricant demand continues
to expand as well.
Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, World Lubricants presents historic demand
data (1997, 2002, 2007) plus forecasts (2012, 2017) by market, product and
formulation for six regions and 31 countries worldwide. The study also
assesses market environment factors, evaluates company market share and
profiles 30 global players.
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