Abstract
Global demand to grow 3% annually through 2012
World diesel engine demand is forecast to expand over three percent per year
through 2012 to about $160 billion. This represents a considerable
deceleration from the impressive growth posted during the 2002-2007 period,
reflecting an expected slowdown in motor vehicle and off-highway equipment
production. Additionally, projected declines in metal prices are set to lower
diesel engine production costs, moderating growth in the market. Despite the
slower growth rate, substantial increases in demand are being predicted for
every segment of the world diesel engine market, with the majority of new
demand concentrated in the motor vehicle segment.
Imports of rapidly growing Asia/Pacific market to surge
The Asia/Pacific region is now the world' s largest market for diesel engines,
surpassing Western Europe. Rising demand for diesel engines in China, India,
and South Korea drove growth in the regional market. The Asia/Pacific share of
the world diesel engine market is forecast to exceed one-third by 2012.
Imports of diesel engines are expected to surge from 2007 to 2012, as regional
manufacturers are unable to keep up with demand. In 2012, only Japan is
forecast to post a substantial diesel engine trade surplus. Although the
regional light vehicle segment is projected to expand at the fastest annual
rate, the largest absolute gains will occur in the heavy truck and bus
segment. China alone is forecast to account for almost 18 percent of new
demand, from 2007 to 2012.
North American market to outpace Western Europe, driven by motor vehicle uses
The diesel engine market in Western Europe is projected to decelerate through
2012, as the production of motor vehicles and machinery weakens. In North
America, the US is expected to account for the vast majority of new diesel
engine demand through 2012. Growth in the North American market will be driven
by the motor vehicle segment, which is set to benefit from the increasing use
of diesel engines in light vehicle production. In Eastern Europe and Latin
America, demand for diesel engines is forecast to grow about 4.0 percent per
year from 2007 to 2012. Nonetheless, each of these two regions will still
account for less than six percent of total diesel engine demand.
Stationary market segment to grow the fastest
Growth rates in the various diesel engine markets are expected to be fairly
uniform through 2012, ranging from about two to four percent. The stationary
segment is expected to expand at the fastest annual rate, while the motor
vehicle segment is forecast to claim most new demand.
Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, World Diesel Engines presents historical
demand data (1997, 2002, 2007) plus forecasts for 2012 and 2017 by market,
world region and for 26 countries. The study also considers key market
environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles global
industry competitors.
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