Abstract
US demand to increase 11% annually through 2013
US demand for advanced lighting products is forecast to grow eleven percent
per annum to $6.8 billion in 2013. Gains will be spurred by legislation aimed
at reducing the energy consumed by lighting. Domestic shipments of advanced
lighting products will proceed at a slower pace, as products with rapidly
growing demand, such as compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) and light emitting
diodes (LEDs), are largely produced overseas.
CFL demand to register fastest growth
CFLs are expected to enjoy the fastest demand growth through 2013. The Energy
Independence and Security Act of 2007 banned the sale of general service
incandescent lamps starting in 2012, and CFLs are expected to replace most of
these lamps as they burn out. Demand for CFLs will surge more than 20 percent
annually to 2013 as consumers transition to the new technology, but long-run
demand will ultimately settle at a lower level because of reduced replacement
demand, as CFLs last much longer than incandescent lamps. Nearly one-half of
additional advanced lighting demand generated between 2008 and 2013 will be
accounted for by CFLs.
LED demand to also surge
LEDs are also forecast to experience robust growth through 2013, benefiting
from greater demand in consumer electronics, motor vehicles and nonresidential
buildings. Falling LED prices, increases in light output and improvements in
energy efficiency will make LEDs more competitive with conventional lighting
products over the forecast period.
Residential market will be dominant
The residential market is projected to experience the greatest gains through
2013, primarily due to a surge in demand for CFLs. Halogen lamps and LEDs will
also benefit from the ban on general service incandescent lamps, as they
outperform CFLs in certain respects (e.g., better color rendering, no mercury
content). However, CFLs are a more economical lighting technology, and will
dominate the residential market by 2013.
Study coverage
These and other key findings are detailed in Advanced Lighting, a new
Freedonia industry presents historical demand
data (1998, 2003 and 2008) as well as forecasts for 2013 and 2018 by product,
market and US region. In addition, the study assesses market environment
factors, reviews the latest technologies, evaluates company market share data
and profiles 35 competitors in the US industry.
Freedonia' s methods involve:
- Establishing consistent economic and market forecasts
- Using input/output ratios, flow charts and other economic methods to
quantify data
- Employing in-house analysts who meet stringent quality standards
- Interviewing key industry participants, experts and end users
- Researching a proprietary database that includes trade publications,
government reports and corporate literature
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