Abstract
Demand in China to rise 5% annually through 2012
Demand for asphalt in China is expected to rise 5.0 percent annually through
2012 to 16.8 million metric tons. Growth will be supported by increasing
construction expenditures fueled by continuing urbanization and modernization.
In particular, nonbuilding construction spending will be the leading driver of
asphalt demand growth going forward. Central and local governments will
continue to invest extensively in asphalt consuming infrastructure projects
such as highway and other paved surface construction. Such investment is part
of longer-term development plans, but will also be accelerated by spending
included in China' s stimulus package designed to offset the effects of
declining trade volumes and urban real estate market corrections on the
domestic economy.
Gains in paving market to outpace roofing
Asphalt consumed in the manufacture of paving products in China is forecast to
increase 5.4 percent annually through 2012. Rising expenditures on new road
construction, as well as the maintenance and repair of a large and rapidly
expanding stock of paved roads, will boost paving asphalt demand.
Demand for asphalt used in roofing products in China is expected to expand 4.0
percent per year through 2012. Growth will be driven by increases in building
construction expenditures. Asphalt shingles represent the fastest growing
material used in sloped-roof applications in China, and will benefit from the
ongoing Flat to Slope roof conversion project. Rising construction
expenditures on residential, office and commercial, and industrial buildings
will benefit demand for low-slope asphaltic roofing, such as modified bitumen
membranes and built-up roofing. However, short-term gains will be restricted
as urban real estate markets experience a correction following a period of
overheating and the Chinese manufacturing sector adjusts to lower levels of
global demand.
Southwest, Northwest regions to see fastest gains
Asphalt markets in the six regions that make up China vary considerably,
reflecting differences in levels of construction activity, demographics,
industrial output and economic development. The Central-East is expected to
remain the largest regional asphalt market in China through 2012, fueled by
increases in regional construction expenditures. However, asphalt consumption
is forecast to climb at a much faster pace in the Southwest and Northwest,
benefiting from the government' s Great Western Development strategy, which
aims at improving the infrastructure and overall economic development in these
areas.
Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, Asphalt in China, presents historical
demand data (1997, 2002 and 2007) plus forecasts for 2012 and 2017 by product,
market and region. The study also considers market environment factors,
details industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles
industry competitors.
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