Abstract
World commercial fuel cell demand to triple by 2013
The world commercial market for fuel cells -- including revenues associated
with prototyping and test marketing activities, as well as actual product
sales -- will more than triple to $1.9 billion in 2013 and then almost triple
again to $5.1 billion in 2018. Market gains will be stimulated by ongoing
technological advances, helping drive costs down to competitive levels in a
growing number of applications, and supported by improved economies of scale
as fuel cell manufacturers ramp up production. In industrialized areas such as
the US and Western Europe, efforts to reduce dependence on imported oil and
address environmental concerns will also contribute to fuel cell
commercialization activity and sales growth over the coming decade. Product
sales will increase substantially in China and other developing countries, but
the US, Western Europe, Japan, Canada and South Korea will account for over
four-fifths of all commercial demand in 2018.
Portable fuel cell systems show best growth prospects
Commercial demand for fuel cell systems, which totaled 17,800 units in 2008,
will expand exponentially through 2013, when unit sales will reach 1.3
million, and then climb another sevenfold to 9.95 million units in 2018.
Although market gains are projected to be strong for most applications,
virtually all of this increase will be attributable to an explosion in
portable fuel cell systems demand, which is expected to account for 98 percent
of all unit sales in 2018. Demand for portable electronics fuel cells will be
spurred by user frustration over the shortcomings of batteries as a power
source for high-drain electronic devices, and declining product costs will
help make fuel cells -- which have the potential to offer much longer run
times than batteries -- an affordable source of portable power. Electric power
generation fuel cells will account for less than one percent of the total
number of systems sold in 2018, but they will continue to make up the largest
single share of commercial fuel cell product and service demand measured in
value terms. Sales of fuel cells used in electric power generation
applications will be stimulated by the comparatively low hurdles that they
have to overcome to achieve cost competitiveness in this market, as well as by
their much greater fuel efficiency compared to conventional power generation
methods.
PEM fuel cells to strengthen dominant market position
Proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells are the most widely used, and they
will strengthen their dominant market position over the coming decade. PEMs
operate at relatively low temperatures (allowing them to be fabricated in
multiple sizes and shapes), offer quick start-up (a major advantage in both
backup power and vehicular settings) and can operate over a wide range of
power outputs. As a result, more organizations are actively working to develop
and market PEM systems than any other single fuel cell chemistry. However,
demand for direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) will rise at a faster rate.
DMFCs are a variant of conventional PEM technology that can extract hydrogen
from methanol without the need for a reformer, making them highly suitable for
powering small electronic devices where a reformer would add unwanted bulk.
Sales of high-temperature solid-oxide fuel cells will also grow at an
aboveaverage pace because of their ability to use multiple fuels and their
high energy efficiency, which can exceed 80 percent if excess heat generated
is recaptured for cogeneration purposes.
Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, World Fuel Cells, presents historical
demand data (1998, 2003, 2008) plus forecasts for 2013 and 2018 by product,
chemistry, application, world region and for 15 countries. The study also
considers key market environment factors, evaluates company market share and
profiles 39 industry participants.
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