Abstract
Global demand to expand rapidly through 2013
Worldwide demand for "green" passenger cars and light trucks will expand
rapidly to 3.0 million units in 2013, propelled by a confluence of technology
breakthroughs and government support. These environmentally friendly light
vehicles -- hybridelectric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
(PHEVs), pure electric vehicles (EVs) and natural gas vehicles (NGVs) -- will
quickly penetrate the world light vehicle market in response to increasing
concerns regarding carbon dioxide emissions, energy independence and overall
"sustainability" issues.
Government support to close cost disparity gap
Cost disparities between green and conventional light vehicles currently range
from about $3,000 for conventional HEVs to more than $10,000 for some PHEVs
and EVs. As a result, efficiently achieving adequate economic scale will be a
continuing challenge, although early signs of substantial government support
in the forms of tax credits and infrastructure support bode well for the
industry. Primary demand for green vehicles will come from Triad markets (US,
Western Europe, Japan) as well as from China, where the government has
emphacized their production and sale.
US to lead green vehicle demand within Triad
Within the Triad, the US market is expected to experience the highest levels
of demand for green vehicles, due to erratic fuel costs, the market' s unique
and rising Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements, and the
relative lack of demand for light vehicle diesels. Despite being less
cost-effective than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, green vehicles
have begun to carve out a loyal fuel-efficiency focused niche in the US
market. Moving beyond this niche status will be the primary industry challenge
going forward.
Green vehicle demand in Europe, where overall light vehicle diesel sales
already exceed 50 percent of the total market, will be significantly lower
than in the US, although some bright spots for selected green technologies,
such as Italy' s preference for NGVs, will persist. Japan will see increased
demand for green vehicles going forward, as government agencies and allied
associations continue to put tax and other incentives in place to stimulate
demand.
Elsewhere in the Asia/Pacific region, both China and South Korea are expected
to become key green vehicle markets over the next ten years, due to government
interest in dealing with mobile emissions (China), and because local
production is planned (both China and South Korea). Other regions of the world
will likely experience lower rates of demand, although countries overwhelmed
by mobile-generated pollution such as India could mandate use to clean the
air. Some emerging market anomalies exist, however, such as the high NGV
penetration levels in Pakistan and Brazil.
Green vehicle technologies have become quite robust
Green vehicle technologies have become quite robust in terms of reliability
and durability, given their comparatively brief presence in the market. The
recent arrival of commercialization-ready advanced vehicle battery systems
based on lithium ion technology has increased expectations regarding PHEVs and
EVs, although costs that exceed $10,000 for these battery packs alone will
hinder their short to medium-term uptake.
Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, World Light-Duty Green Vehicles, presents
historical demand data (1998, 2003, 2008) plus forecasts for 2013 and 2018 by
green vehicle type, regional market and for 14 major national markets. The
study also considers market environment factors, assesses industry structure,
evaluates company market share and profiles industry competitors.
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