Abstract
Global demand to rise 7.6% annually through 2013
Global demand for motorcycles is forecast to rise 7.6 percent per year through
2013 to 114 million units, spurred by rising standards of living in poorer
developing parts of the world, which are making motorcycles a more affordable
alternative to walking, bicycling or using mass transit. Higher energy prices,
along with a rebound in economic growth after a recessionary period that began
in a number of nations in 2008, will also contribute to motorcycle market
gains in both developing and developed areas.
Product sales will expand at a slower pace in value terms, climbing 7.2
percent annually to $66.6 billion in 2013, because of an expected decline in
sales-weighted prices. Some offsetting support will be provided by the
introduction of new models equipped with sophisticated emissions control
systems and increased sales of machines with more features, boosting
motorcycle dollar demand.
Africa/Mideast, Asia/Pacific markets to grow the fastest
The strongest market advances through 2013 will be registered by the Africa/
Mideast region. This will be due to several factors, including the fastest
population growth of any region in the world, the lowest median age and the
lowest (but climbing) per capita GDP. Population increases and higher
standards of living will also help stimulate motorcycle sales in the
Asia/Pacific region, which will post the second strongest gains, followed by
Eastern Europe (rising from a very small current market base) and Latin
America. China alone will account for 55 percent of all additional product
demand through 2013, solidifying its position as the biggest national market
by far for motorcycles. Growth is also expected to be healthy in lowervolume
markets such as Nigeria, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Product demand will expand at a more moderate rate in developed countries,
where automobiles and other light vehicles are the primary form of personal
transportation, and motorcycles are generally considered to be luxury goods
used for recreational purposes. Nevertheless, high energy prices, city center
congestion (especially in Western Europe) and personal income growth will
provide some impetus to motorcycle sales advances in these areas.
Electric motorcyles to lead gains, ICE types to remain dominant
Electric motorcycles will register the strongest market growth of any major
product type. Demand for batterypowered bicycles, scooters and other
two-wheelers will be driven by their generally lower purchase prices, low cost
of operation and lack of harmful emissions. However, ICE motorcycles will
continue to account for two-thirds of all sales. ICEs are a proven, widely
accepted motorcycle powerplant technology, and improvements continue to be
made in engine designs. In addition, ICE motorcycles can travel further before
needing to be refueled, and larger ICE models are more powerful than most
currently available electric motorcycles. Light motorcycles -- which offer
greater power and better performance than scooters, mopeds and motorbikes, but
have lower price tags and are less expensive to operate than medium and heavy
motorcycles -- will outperform other ICE product types and maintain their
position as the largest single segment of the motorcycle market.
Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, World Motorcycles, presents historical
demand data (1998, 2003 and 2008) plus forecasts for 2013 and 2018 by
motorcycle type, worldwide regional market as well as for 21 national markets.
The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates company market
share and profiles 38 competitors in the global industry.
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