Abstract
US demand to increase 4% annually through 2013
US demand for lamps is forecast to grow four percent per year through 2013 to
$7 billion. Federal regulations intended to reduce the energy consumed by
lighting will generate double-digit annual demand gains for fluorescent lamps
and cause an offsetting contraction in demand for conventional incandescent
lamps.
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 effectively bans the sale of
general service incandescent lamps starting in 2012, and compact fluorescent
lamps (CFLs) are expected to replace most of these lamps as they burn out.
Demand for CFLs will surge more than 20 percent annually through 2013 as
consumers transition to the new technology. But long-term demand will
ultimately proceed at a slower pace as CFLs last much longer than the
incandescent lamps they will replace.
Light emitting diodes (LEDs) pose a serious threat to future lamp demand.
Although their high price has limited their usage so far, technological
innovations that reduce costs and improve performance will likely lead to the
widespread adoption of LED-based lighting devices. In the long term, lamps are
expected to lose market share to LEDs, especially in such markets as motor
vehicles and nonresidential buildings.
Metal halide, halogen lamps to post strong gains
Metal halide lamps will lead the highintensity discharge (HID) product segment
through 2013. As mercury vapor lamps are phased-out of the market, metal
halide lamps will gain market share in outdoor lighting applications.
Furthermore, metal halide lamps are increasingly finding use as high-end motor
vehicle headlamps.
Halogen lamps are also forecast to grow especially fast through 2013,
benefiting from the ban on general service incandescent lamps. Although less
efficient and shorter-lived than CFLs, halogen lamps outperform CFLs in terms
of color rendering, and they do not contain mercury. Furthermore, demand for
halogen lamps will also benefit from recovering production of motor vehicles,
as halogen lamps find widespread use as headlamps.
Residential, nonresidential buildings to remain leading US lamp markets
Buildings account for the majority of lamp demand, and this market will enjoy
above-average gains through 2013. Residential buildings will largely be
responsible for this growth, due to a surge in demand for CFLs as general
service lamps are phased out of the market. However, demand in nonresidential
buildings will also accelerate through 2013, as new federal regulations
raising the minimum efficiency of general use fluorescent lamps raise the
average cost of fluorescent lamps going forward.
Study coverage
Details on these and other findings are contained in Lamps, a new Freedonia
industry study presents historical demand (1998, 2003 and 2008) plus forecasts
(2013 and 2018) for lamps by product and market. The study also considers
market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles nearly
35 competitors in the US industry
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