Abstract
Introduction
The Danish fuel cell industry is characterised by a good deal of co-operation
between R&D organisations, the nascent supply chain, and end-user customers
for a wide range of early market applications, including mCHP, UPS, and
materials handling. Recognising that Denmark has in effect an entire domestic
supply chain for high and low temperature PEM and SOFC, the public and private
sectors are working together under the auspices of the Danish Fuel Cell
Partnership to translate R&D into commercial products. In this, Denmark bears
the hallmarks of the Japanese fuel cell industry, where collaboration is key
within the domestic fuel cell sector, as a means to first build a market, and
only later introduce competition between players in the industry. One crucial
difference compared to the Japanese industry is that there is very little
overlap in terms of activities between the key players - this appears to be a
deliberate policy in such a small country as Denmark. The Danish fuel cell
industry is intricately associated with Denmark' s energy landscape, a
landscape that is dominated by the two key pillars of North Sea oil and gas
(an increasingly finite resource), and the wind industry, one of the world' s
most successful renewable export industries. Seeking to reduce reliance on oil
and gas, and also seeking to emulate the success of the wind industry,
Denmark' s government takes the fuel cell industry increasingly seriously.
Forecasting Methodology
FCT' s fuel cell market projections are based on a two-tiered approach. We
differentiate between low volume and high volume markets, and we base our
projections on different assumptions accordingly. The low volume market
projections are based mainly upon fuel cell company statements, government
targets, and planned demonstration projects. Where this information is
lacking, we use a conservative linear growth projection. This is the
‘Supply driven model' . The high volume market projections are based upon
likely consumer demand as determined by the use of proxy technology deployment
and similar historical data. This is the ‘Demand driven model' .
Projections for any one specific sector can be based on a mixture of both
forecasting methods.
The decision over which model to use, for which year, in any specific sector
is ultimately one of judgment - whether FCT thinks that, on the balance of
evidence, a particular sector will see the arrival of a ‘breakthrough'
commercial product. When a breakthrough product arrives, the projections will
switch from being based on the supply-driven model to the demand-driven model.
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