Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 4
1.2 List of Figures 5
2
Executive Summary 6
2.1 Impact of the Credit Crunch and the Economic
Slowdown on Oil and Gas Investments 6
2.2 Future Economic Recovery and
Supply Crunch Outlook 7
3 Global Financial Crisis, Recession And Its
Impact On Investments In The Global Oil And Gas Industry 9
3.1 Global
Financial and the Credit Crisis 9
3.2 Recession in the US and Euro Zone
and the Global Economic Slowdown 10
3.3 Credit Crunch and Falling Revenues
Leading To a Decrease in Capital Expenditure 11
3.4 Effects of the Global
Economic and the Credit Crisis on Oil and Gas Industry Investment - Short and
Medium Term Outlook 12
3.5 Key Issues Affecting the Energy Investment
13
3.6 Impact on Oil and Gas Investments 15
3.7 Industry Implications
of the Reduced Investments 25
4 Key Industry Challenges Augmenting a
Future Supply Crunch 30
4.1 Resource Nationalism and the Inability of the
IOC’s to Access Low Cost Reserves 30
4.2 Subsidized Product Prices
in Some Countries Leading To Uneven Effect on Demand 32
4.3 Economic
Slowdown Followed By a Quick Economic Recovery 32
4.4 Environmental
Concerns Are Now Major Drivers of Energy Policy 34
4.5 Shortages in Labor
and Materials Along With Long Lead Times of Projects Have an Indirect Effect
on Supplies 35
4.6 Shortage in Refining Capacity Might Lead To Reduced
Supply of End Products 36
4.7 Increasing Security Threats over Oil and Gas
Industry Assets Will Increase Uncertainty of Supplies 38
5 Road To
Recovery – Scenarios Of Economic And Energy Demand Recovery 39
5.1
Comparison of the Current Crude Oil Market Scenario with Previous Market
Disruptions 39
5.2 Future Economic Recovery and Supply Crunch Outlook
41
5.3 Scenarios of Future World Oil Markets and A Possible Supply Crunch
between 2013 And 2015 41
6 Energy Policies Will Play A Major Role In The
Future Supply – Demand Scenario 49
6.1 Avoiding a Supply Crunch
through Policy Action 49
6.2 Effects of Supply Crunch and Price Spike on
Policy 51
7 Major Upstream And Downstream Projects Affecting the Future
Supply Capacity 52
7.1 Exploration and Production Projects 52
7.2
Refining Projects 53
8 Appendix 55
8.1 Methodology 55
8.2 Unit of
Measure 57
8.3 Contact Us 57
8.4 About GlobalData 58
8.5
Disclaimer 58
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Actual and
Forecasted Crude Oil and Natural Gas Price, 2008 - 2012 10
Table 2: Global
Actual and Forecasted GDP, 2007 - 2010 13
Table 3: OPEC Spare Capacity
(million barrels per day) and Brent Crude Oil Price (US $ per barrel), 2000
– 2009 15
Table 4: Capital Expenditure Plan of Major E&P Companies,
2008 – 2009 17
Table 5: Major Global Upstream
Delayed/Cancelled/Suspended Projects 19
Table 6: Global Refinery
Delayed/Cancelled/Suspended Projects 22
Table 7: Global LNG, Pipeline and
Storage delayed/suspended Projects 24
Table 8: Oil and Gas Industry M&A
Deals Activity by Volume and Value, Dec 08 – May 09 27
Table 9: Top
M&A Deals, 2009 27
Table 10: Oil and Gas Industry Asset Transactions by
Deal Volume and Value, Dec 08 – May 09 28
Table 11: Top Asset
Transactions, 2009 29
Table 12: World Oil and Gas Proved Reserves, 2008
31
Table 13: World Energy Related Carbon Emissions, billion metric tones,
2005 – 2010 35
Table 14: Global Refining Capacity Country-Wise
(MMTPA), 2000-2015 37
Table 15: Demand and Maximum Production Capacity
Growth Scenarios 44
Table 16: High Growth or Supply Crunch Scenario 46
Table 17: Normal Growth Scenario – Medium Possibility of a Supply Crunch
47
Table 18: Low Growth Scenario – Prolonged High Production
Capacity 48
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Demand and Maximum
Production Capacity Growth Scenarios 7
Figure 2: OPEC Spare Capacity
(million barrels per day) and Brent Crude Oil Price (US $ per barrel), 2000
– 2009 15
Figure 3: Global Monthly Rig Count, January 2008 –
May 2009 21
Figure 4: Oil and Gas Industry M&A Deals Activity by Volume
and Value, Dec 08 – May 09 26
Figure 5: Oil and Gas Industry Asset
Transactions by Deal Volume and Value, Dec 08 – May 09 28
Figure 6:
World Oil and Gas Proved Reserves, 2008 31
Figure 7: World Energy
Related Carbon Emissions, billion metric tones, 2005 – 2010 34
Figure 8: US Refining Capacity, Increase In Desulphurization Capacity,
2000-08 37
Figure 9: Historical Crude Oil Prices with the Chronology of
Events, 1970 - 2008 39
Figure 10: Demand and Maximum Production Capacity
Growth Scenarios 44
Figure 11: GlobalData Methodology 55
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