Abstract
The Next Generation Network (NGN) - these are magic words to many in the
telecommunications business. They invoke an image of a new network that will
correct all of the problems of the existing network (s). The nature of the
problems to be corrected and the resulting nature of the envisioned new
network depend largely on the background, training, and beliefs of the
observer. Maybe this is a relativistic view of NGN! These words also invoke
images of new opportunities for equipment sales, new service revenue
opportunities, and improved operating efficiencies.
A major question to be considered when thinking about the NGN is the impact of
the coming changes on the traditional carriers, particularly the RBOCs. We
must evaluate the unprecedented changes now taking place in the network as
they will impact the RBOCs who have a vast, undepreciated investment in the
current, but now obsolete, technologies. They, uniquely of all players in the
communications game, will be stressed by the need to continue to earn on their
embedded investments, while making major investments to replace their network
assets, and while making substantial investments to complete their network
structures (e.g., SBC buying AT&T..
This report uses an empirical approach to forecasting the NGN. It first
reviews the current market drivers of the network and our forecasts of market
impacts that will likely change the directions of major telecommunications
companies. It also considers what the major players are now doing or are
saying they are going to be doing (how they are investing.) We will consider
the direction of major standards bodies in a separate chapter (the author has
a great respect for their activities, having been a founder and vice chairman
of T1M1 for its formative years) but our emphasis will be on following
investments, market influences, and business drivers.
The first section of the report describes how the very nature of the network
has been changing since the beginning of this decade and how that change is
accelerating. In addition to a change in the nature of the network, its growth
pattern is changing. The growth of the network (in terms of traffic carried)
has continued through the telecommunications slowdown of the early 2000's. The
overbuilt condition of our backbone infrastructure kept this growth from being
translated into accelerating equipment sales. Now we see a new driver - FTTP
- that will cause the growth to accelerate even more, and again the nature of
the traffic is going to further change.
There are numerous conferences and standards efforts underway projecting what
the NGN will be. But as noted before, the outcomes of these efforts will
likely depend on the participants and their built-in prejudices rather than on
any rationally derived likelihood of the design of the NGN. While some very
elegant solutions will be developed to problems generated by trying to
visualize the NGN to fit a given set of preconceived notions, it is
problematic as to the utility of these solutions.
In addition to the main purpose of the report, i.e., forecasting and
describing the Next Generation Network, this report
- Identifies major technologies and/or services that are driving change
toward the NGN, including FTTP, IPTV, R-OADMs, and VoIP.
- The report includes extensive descriptions of each of these
technologies/services as well as market forecasts for each.
- The report describes the change in the network in terms of traffic carried
and type of traffic, and provides extensive forecasts of traffic by type.
- The current competitive market situation is described and analyzed.
- The report includes extensive material on the impact of the NGN drivers on
the RBOCs, and the increasingly difficult situation surrounding the RBOCs.
- The new competitors - Google, Yahoo, MSN and others are identified in
their threat to the traditional network competitors. The Internet service
providers become major network players, because they are the ones that are
actually making money on the network!
- Describes how these new competitors could in fact become major network
players in the development of the NGN. CAN the RBOCs BE GOOGLED UP?
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