Next Generation Network: Will the RBOCs be Googled Up?

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

Executive Summary

Introduction

State of the Network

Network Traffic

FTTP Traffic Impact

The Traditional Competitors

The Competitive Landscape - Threats in Every Direction

• RBOCs vs. the CLECs (IXCs)
  • The RBOC Counterattack - Long Distance
• RBOC Purchase of IXCs
• Cable Companies vs. Satellite Companies
• Current Competition Summary

EMERGING "SUPER COMPETITORS" AND NEW COMPETITORS

Network Activities of the Super Competitors

• Verizon
• SBC
• Comcast
• Network Activities Summary

THE NON-TRADITIONAL COMPETITORS

Market Power of the New Competitors

• Google
• Yahoo!
• Microsoft
• EBay

Comparison of New Competitors vs. Super Competitors

• Net Income
• Current Assets
• Capitalization

The Threat of the New Competitors!

THE PROBLEMS OF THE BROCS

THE NEXT GENERATION NETWORK

NGN - Architecture

• NGN - Access
• NGN - Transport
  • Local
    • Soft switches
    • MSPP
    • Metro DWDM
    • R-OADMs
  • IXC
    • R-OADMs
    • OC-768 and SONET Advances
    • IP
    • "Big Iron"
• NGN - Control
  • New Competitors vs. Super Competitors View of Control
  • Control Forecast - A Compromise
    • 1. Direct Control
    • 2. Common Control and the Intelligent Network
    • 3. NGN Control

Summary of NGN Forecast

THE TECHNOLOGIES OF THE NEXT GENERATION NETWORK

NGN Standards Activities

• ITU
• IEFT
• Comparison of ITU and IEFT NGN Views

FTTP

• FTTP Rationale
• The FTTP Architecture
• Other Approaches for Access Architecture
  • Fiber to the "X"
  • xDSL Versions
• RBOC FTTP Plans
  • Verizon
  • SBC
  • BellSouth
  • Qwest
• FTTP Forecast

IPTV

• IPTV Architecture
  • Super Hub Office
  • Video Hub Office
  • Serving Offices
• IPTV Forecast
  • Verizon
  • SBC
  • BellSouth
  • Qwest
• Overall IPTV Forecast

Network Modernization - R-OADMs

• Summary of R-OADM Description
• R-OADM Forecast
  • Assumptions of Model
• Systems
  • R-OADM Forecast

VoIP

• VoIP Implementation Example
• VoIP Forecast
  • Telecom Service Market Impact of VoIP

Report Summary

• The Marketplace
• The Next Generation Network

Table of Figures

• Figure 1, The RBOCs in Danger of Being Googled!
• Figure 2, Network Traffic 1999-2001
• Figure 3, H-S Accesses vs. Dial-Up Penetration
• Figure 4, FTTP and Network Traffic Forecasts
• Figure 5, Market Matrix
• Figure 6, RBOCs vs. CLECs (IXCs)
• Figure 7, RBOCs in Long Distance
• Figure 8, RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
• Figure 9, RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
• Figure 10, Cable Companies vs. Satellite Companies
• Figure 11, Current Telecommunications Competition
• Figure 12, Summary of Super Competitors' Network Activities
• Figure 13, Super Competitors Network Activities
• Figure 14, Non-Traditional Competitors
• Figure 15, New Competitors becoming Super Competitors
• Figure 16, Net Income of Super Vs. New Competitors
• Figure 17, Current Assets - Comparison of Super Competitors and New Competitors
• Figure 18, Capitalization - New Vs. Super Competitors
• Figure 19, RBOCs in Danger of Being Googled!
• Figure 20, Next Generation Network
• Figure 21, Control Migration to Network Edge
• Figure 22, Identified Technologies of the NGN
• Figure 23, Differences between ITU and IEFT NGN Views
• Figure 24, Five Reasons for 'Why FTTP Now?'
• Figure 25, FTTP Architecture - Central Office Portion
• Figure 26, RFP PON - Outside Plant Portion
• Figure 27, RFP PON Service Assignments
• Figure 28, Fiber to the 'X' Varieties
• Figure 29, Chart of Various xDSL Technologies
• Figure 30, FTTP Forecast - HPs Cumulative Passed vs. Served
• Figure 31, FTTP Forecast - Comparison to H-S Accesses
• Figure 32, IPTV Global Architecture
• Figure 33, IPTV Access Architecture - xDSL
• Figure 34, FTTP Architecture for IPTV
• Figure 35, IPTV Hub Office Architecture
• Figure 36, IPTV Forecast
• Figure 37, R-OADM Concept
• Figure 38, R-OADM System Unit Forecast - US
• Figure 39, Price Forecast for R-OADMs
• Figure 40, R-OADMs Market Forecast - US
• Figure 41, OADM vs. R-OADM Market - US
• Figure 42, Cable Company (or CLEC) VoIP Network
• Figure 43, Forecast for Gross VoIP Market
• Figure 44, Forecast of Net and Gross VoIP Service Markets