Advanced Access Architectures 2008

Table of CONTENTS

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

• General Reports on the Network
• General Market Reports
• Specific Systems Reports

Introduction

Reasons for a New Report

• Forecast
• Costs and Financial Impacts
• BellSouth Properties
• This Report

Background

• Why AAA?

Comments on Triennial Review Results

Original Schedule

Differences of the RBOCs

Market Competitive Analysis

AAA as the Light Sword of the RBOCs

• RBOC Loss of Main Lines

Post-merger Competition

RBOC Purchase of IXCs

RBOCs vs. Cable Companies

• New High-Speed Access Forecast

Cable Companies vs. Satellite Companies

The Need for Capacity

How Much Bandwidth Is Enough?

Basis for Estimating Needs

Meeting the Bandwidth Needs

The Current Options

• FIOS - FTTP Bandwidth Capacity
• Uverse

Alternatives to Achieve the Required Bandwidth

• Pair Bonding
• Reduce the Distance
• Hybrid FTTN - FTTC
• Compression

NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON

• 10-GPON
• WDM-PONs
• Vendors of WDM-PON
  • Other WDM-PON Activities
• Vendors of WDM - Listing and Summary of Status
  • ADC
  • ADVA
  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • Ericsson
  • LG Electronics
  • Nortel
  • Novera
  • Pirelli
  • Tellabs

Cost Analysis of AAA

Costs of AAAs

• Uverse
• FiOS
• Qwest

Fiber Requirements for Various Advanced Access Architectures

• BellSouth' s Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
• AT&T' s Fiber to the node (FTTN)
• Verizon' s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)

Analysis of Architectural Differences

AT&T' s New Plans for BellSouth - a Hybrid FTTC/FTTN

Impact of Loss of High-Speed Access Lines

RBOC Plans- RBOCs' AAA Plan - The Lightwave Is Back!

Verizon Plan

• Verizon - Physical Description
  • Verizon Vendors
• Verizon - Size of Rollout
• Verizon - Services

Verizon as an Overbuilder

AT&T Plan

• AT&T - Physical Description
  • AT&T Vendors
• AT&T - Size of Rollout
• AT&T - Uverse Services
  • Video
  • Internet
  • Voice
  • AT&T U-verse Video Services
  • High-Speed Access U-verse Services

BellSouth Plan

• BellSouth - Physical Description
  • Pre-Merger
  • Post-Merger
  • AT&T' s New Plans for BellSouth

Qwest Plan

• FTTN
• FTTP

Comparing the Plans of the RBOCs

• Operations Savings Estimates

Growth Comparisons

Summary of Announced Plans

• Verizon
• AT&T
• Bell South
• Qwest

Summary information on the Announced Plans

Announced Plans - Quantitative Analysis

• Announced Plans - Size
• Announced Plans - Costs
  • Announced Plans - Cost by Plant Segments
  • Announced Plans - Capital and Budget impacts
  • Announced Plans - Video Costs

Forecast for AAAs

Forecasts for Deployment

• AT&T
• Verizon
• BellSouth
• Qwest

Deployment Forecast Summary

• AT&T
• Verizon
• BellSouth
• Qwest

Forecast Size of Deployments

• Forecast of Homes Passed
• Penetration Rates
• Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL

Technology Forecast

• Forecast Technologies by Type
• Forecast PONs - GPON vs. BPONs

Forecast Costs

• Unit Cost Tables
• Forecast Plant Segment Cost
• Forecast Capital Costs and Budget Impacts
• Forecast Video Costs

Vendors of the Light Sword

Requirements for a Successful Vendor

Possible Consortiums

Selected Vendors

Vendors of GPONS

Vendors Listing

• Summary of Vendors

Detailed Listing of Vendors

• Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
• ADC
• Adtran
• Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
• Alcatel-Lucent
• Alloptic Inc
• Amino Technologies plc
• AOC Technologies
• Avanex Corporation
• Broadlight
• Calix
• Cisco
• Conexant
• Corrigent
• Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)
• Ericsson
• Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)
• Finisar Corporation
• FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
• Fujitsu
• Genone3 Technologies Inc.
• Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.
• Humax USA Inc.
• Iamba Networks
• JDS Uniphase
• Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)
• LG Electronics
• LightComm Technology
• Marconi
• Microsoft
• Motorola
• NeoPhotonics
• Nortel
• Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)
• OFS
• O-Net Communications Ltd
• Oplink Communications, Inc.
• Optiviva Inc.
• Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)
• Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
• Paceon (Mitsubishi)
• Passave (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
• PMC-Sierra
• Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)
• Salira Optical Network Systems
• Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
• Siemens
• Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)
• Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)
• Tellabs
• Terawave (Acquired by Occam Networks)
• Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)
• Vinci Systems, Inc. (Acquired by Tellabs)

Appendix I - Equipment and Fiber Requirements

Equipment

PONs - OLTs, Splitters, ONUs

• Equipment Requirements - PONS, OLTs, Splitters, ONUs - RBOC Plan
  • BPONS - RBOC Plan
  • GPONS - RBOC Plan
  • Total PONs - RBOC Plan
• Equipment Requirements - PONS OLTs, Splitters, ONUs - IGI Forecast
  • BPONs - IGI Forecast
  • GPONs - IGI Forecast
  • Total PONs - IGI Forecast

Equipment for FTTN

• FTTN Equipment Required - Plans
• FTTN Equipment Required - Forecast

Fiber Needed

Fibers - Current RBOC Plans

Fibers - IGI Forecast RBOC Plans

Fibers Required - Summary and Comparison of Plans vs. Forecast

Appendix II - Access Architecture

Various Approaches for Fiber-based Access Architecture

Fiber to the "X"

xDSL Versions

Design Details for Current Plans

• Fiber to the Neighborhood (FTTN)
• AT&T' s Fiber to the node (FTTN)
• BellSouth' s Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)

The RFP - PONs Will Set Us Free

• What Are PONs?
  • The PON Design
• Status of PON
• Advantage and Disadvantages of PON
• Types of PONs
  • BPON
  • EPON
  • GPON
• The PON in the First RFP
• GPONs

Architectures to Meet the Needs

Appendix III - Approaches to Video Delivery

Broadcast

IPTV

• IPTV Architecture
  • IPTV Global Architecture
    • Super Hub Office
    • Video Hub Office
    • Serving Offices
• IPTV Distribution and Access Architecture
• IPTV Channel Selection

• Figure 1: Lightwave Network
• Figure 2: Five Reasons for ' Why AAA Now?'
• Figure 3: FTTP Schedule
• Figure 4: Summary of Competitive Position
• Figure 5: Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
• Figure 6: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
• Figure 7: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
• Figure 8: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
• Figure 9: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
• Figure 10: New (2008) High Speed Forecast
• Figure 11: Adoption Rates of PCs and High-Speed Access
• Figure 12: Cable Companies vs. Satellite Companies
• Figure 13: Bandwidth Needs - MPEG4 Compression Technology
• Figure 14: Forecast Access Bandwidth Requirements 2010
• Figure 15: PONs' Bandwidth Capacity
• Figure 16: VDSL2 Bandwidth vs. Distance
• Figure 17: Predominant Advanced Access Architectures
• Figure 18: BellSouth FTTC
• Figure 19: AT&T Uverse (FTTN)
• Figure 20: Verizon FiOS (FTTP)
• Figure 21: Amount of Fibers for the Architectures
• Figure 22: Length of Fiber for the Architectures
• Figure 23: Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures
• Figure 24: Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture
• Figure 25: AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC
• Figure 26: Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC
• Figure 27: Verizon High-speed Access Lines - By Quarter
• Figure 28: AT&T H-S Additions
• Figure 29: FiOS States - 2008
• Figure 30: Verizon Services
• Figure 31: AT & T U-verse Video Services
• Figure 32: North Texas U-verse Service Offering
• Figure 33: AT&T U-verse High-speed Access Services
• Figure 34: Comparison of Internet Access Speed Offered
• Figure 35: Growth of AAAs thru mid-2008
• Figure 36: Announced Plans Summary Chart
• Figure 37: Announced Plans - Annual HPs
• Figure 38: Announced Plans - HPs Cumulative Passed vs. Served
• Figure 39: Announced Plan - Comparison to High-speed Accesses
• Figure 40: FTTP Served Customer Cost Assumptions
• Figure 41: FTTP Cost per Unserved (but passed) House
• Figure 42: Assumed Cost for FTTN and FTTC
• Figure 43: FTTP Announced Plan - Costs by Segments
• Figure 44: Announced Plan - Capital Costs and Budget Impact
• Figure 45: Segment Costs Including Video
• Figure 46: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
• Figure 47: Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
• Figure 48: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
• Figure 49, AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL
• Figure 50: Technology Type Cumulative - Forecast
• Figure 51: Forecast Technologies - Homes Passed - Annual
• Figure 52: Forecast Homes Passed - PONs vs. Other Technologies
• Figure 53: Total PONs Forecast - RBOCs - Cumulative
• Figure 54: Moving from BPONs to GPONs
• Figure 55: Forecast BPONs vs. GPONs by Year
• Figure 56: Verizon PON Forecast
• Figure 57: AT&T PON Forecast
• Figure 58: Served Customer Cost Assumptions
• Figure 59: Cost per Unserved (but Passed) House
• Figure 60: Assumed Cost for FTTN and FTTC
• Figure 61: Forecast FTTP Costs by Plant Segment
• Figure 62: Forecast Plan Costs by Architecture
• Figure 63: Forecast Cumulative Cost and Annual Budget Impact
• Figure 64: Video Costs as Related to Total Plan
• Figure 65: Requirements for Successful RFP Vendor to First FTTP RFP
• Figure 66: Possible Consortiums
• Figure 67: Originally Selected Vendors
• Figure 68: Newly Selected Vendors
• Figure 69: GPON Selected Vendors
• Figure 70: Summary of Vendors
• Figure 71: Currently Planned PONs
• Figure 72: Forecast for PON Implementation
• Figure 73: Forecast Access Networks By Architecture
• Figure 74: Chart of Equipment Requirements - BPONS - Plan
• Figure 75: Chart of Equipment Requirements - GPONs - Plan
• Figure 76: Chart of Equipment Requirements - all PONs - Plan
• Figure 77: Chart of Equipment Requirements - BPONs - Forecast
• Figure 78: Chart of Equipment Requirements - GPONs - Forecast
• Figure 79: Chart of Equipment Requirements - All PONs - Forecast
• Figure 80: Equipment Requirements - FTTN Plans
• Figure 81: Equipment Requirements - FTTN Forecast
• Figure 82: Fibers Needed Current Plans
• Figure 83: Forecast Fiber Used By Technology
• Figure 84: Comparison of Plan vs. Forecast for Fiber Strand Requirements
• Figure 85: Fiber to the ' X' Varieties
• Figure 86: Chart of Various xDSL Technologies
• Figure 87: Fiber to the Neighborhood
• Figure 88: Fiber to the node
• Figure 89: Fiber to the Curb
• Figure 90: PON Basic Arrangement
• Figure 91: RFP PON - Central Office Portion
• Figure 92: RFP PON - Outside Plant Portion
• Figure 93: RFP PON Service Assignments
• Figure 94: BPON/GPON Comparison
• Figure 95: Typical GPON
• Figure 96: Bandwidth Needs vs. Capabilities
• Figure 97: Broadcast TV on BPONs
• Figure 98: Broadcast TV
• Figure 99: IPTV General Architecture
• Figure 100: IPTV Global Architecture
• Figure 101: IPTV Access Architecture
• Figure 102: FTTP Architecture for IPTV
• Figure 103: IPTV Hub Office Architecture
• Figure 104: IPTV Channel Selection