Abstract
Overview
The history of the networking business is largely based on network evolution
steps that were determined by the geniuses at Bell Labs. Another group of
geniuses at the same institution determined end-user (station apparatus)
capabilities. The famous beginning of the telephone industry might have been:
in today' s terms: “Watson: come here. I need your cell phone
number.”
It has been said that there have been three network designs: the telegraph
network: the telephone network: and the Internet network. Each had its
particular end-user apparatus - the telegraph: the telephone: and the
computer. As we have changed from each of these paradigms to the next: we have
seen massive business transformations by the major players. Some companies
made the transformation; they survived and prospered; some did not and died.
This report is about how to make those transformations and specifically about
what network will be coming next - the next-generation network!
Report Features
This report reviews the techniques for NGN planning and some of the drivers in
today' s market for that planning activity.
It includes the following major areas:
- The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos.
- Forecasts of CapEx for the next five years.
- A survey of what major players are doing in NGN planning.
- Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications
business today about NGN.
- The changing face of the network - why it is changing and how.
- A discussion of what the major carriers are doing in related areas.
- Our characterization of the NGN - access: speed: and flexibility.
- Our forecast for the next-generation network architecture - access:
transport: and control.
- A presentation of architectural options facing a telecommunications
company it the advanced access area: and a model of the related economics.
- A discussion of standards activity related to NGN.
- A description of the major technology groups in the NGN: with forecasts
for their deployment.
- A listing of major vendors of NGN hardware and software.
Why have an NGN? - Why change networks?
If we have a perfectly good: working network: why do we change it? Why do we
evolve it?
Here are some reasons:
- We find a way to make it cheaper to operate. (e.g.: changing from open
wire to plastic sheathed cables).
- We find a way to make it cheaper to grow. (e.g.: we add cross-boxes).
- We find that we need more capacity. (e.g.: we convert from cable-derived
circuits to T-1-derived circuits).
- The end-user devices (station apparatus) demands that we provide more or
different functionality. (e.g.: HDTV delivery).
Of course: particularly with items 1: 2: and 3: there is often a mixture of
motives for change. Often the need for more: cheaper capacity will combine
items 2 and 3: for example. Over time: the importance of these reasons has
changed.
As a part of this report: we will find that now the reason for changing
networks is to meet end user-demand for services. The rationale for changing
networks is moving from technology/cost savings to customer-driven!
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