Next Generation Carrier's Network - Architectures, Economics and Forecasts

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

• General Reports on the Network
• General Market Reports
• Specific Systems Reports

Introduction

The Impact of Competitive Networks

Transformation Planning

Why Do We Change Networks?

Customer is King!

This Report

US Telecommunications Economic Forecast

• General Economic Background

Telecom Economic Background

Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009

Telecommunications Capital Forecast

Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary

• Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009

Survey of Next Generation Network Activities by Major Players

AT&T

BT (British Telecom) - “21CN'

Comcast

NTT (Japan)

Orange/FT (French Telecom)

Telstra (Australian)

Verizon

Qwest

Ciena

NeoPhotonics

Changing Face of the Network

Why Change Networks?

• Cheaper Operation:
• Cheaper to Grow
• Need for More Capacity:
• End-User Demand.

How the Network Is Changing

• Historical Network
• Recent Network
• Future Network

“Watson: Come Here - I Need your Cell Number!”

The Next Generation Network

NGN - Characterization

• Access
• Speed
• Flexibility

NGN - Architecture

• NGN - Access
• NGN - Transport
  • Local
    • Soft switches
    • MSPP
    • Metro DWDM
    • R-OADMs
  • IXC
    • R-OADMs
    • OC-768 and SONET Advances
    • IP
    • “Big Iron”
• NGN - Control
• New Competitors vs. Super Competitors View of Control
  • Control Forecast - A Compromise
    • 1. Direct Control
    • 2. Common Control and the Intelligent Network
    • 3. NGN Control

Summary of NGN Forecast

Economic Analysis for Various NGN Advanced Access Architectures

Comparison of Three Major Approaches

• BellSouth' s Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
• AT&T' s Fiber to the node (FTTN)
• Verizon' s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)

Summary of Fiber Requirements

An Economic Model NGN - AAA Architectural Differences

Fiber Required for Each Architecture

Cost of Fiber Needed for Each Architecture

AT&T' s New Plans for BellSouth - A Hybrid FTTC/FTTN

The Technologies of the Next Generation Network

Advanced Access Architectures

• Verizon
• AT&T
• Bell South
• Qwest

NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON

• 10-GPON
• WDM-PONs
• Vendors of WDM-PON
  • Other WDM-PON Activities
• Vendors of WDM - Listing and Summary of Status

ROADMs

• Achieving SONET-like Control in Optical Networks
• A New ROADM
• Evolution to the Edge

NGN Standards Activities

ITU

IEFT

Comparison of ITU and IEFT NGN Views

Forecast for NGN Technologies

Advanced Access Architectures Forecast

Forecasts for Deployment

• AT&T
• Verizon
• BellSouth
• AAA Forecast Summary
• AT&T
• Verizon
• BellSouth
• Qwest

Forecast Size of Deployments

• Forecast of Homes Passed
• Penetration Rates
• Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL

ROADM Forecast

• Model for Forecast Core and Metro ROADMs
• Assumptions of Model
• Model for Forecast - Edge ROADMs
• Systems - Forecast
• US Edge ROADMs

US Market Forecast

Vendors for the NGN

Advanced Access Architecture Vendors

• Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
• ADC
• Adtran
• Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
• Alcatel-Lucent
• Alloptic Inc
• Amino Technologies plc
• Avanex Corporation (now Oclaro)
• Broadlight
• Calix
• Cisco
• Conexant
• Corrigent (now Orckit)
• Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)
• Ericsson
• Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)
• Finisar Corporation
• FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
• Fujitsu
• Genone3 Technologies Inc.
• Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.
• Humax USA Inc.
• JDS Uniphase
• Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)
• LG Electronics
• LightComm Technology
• Marconi
• Microsoft
• Motorola
• NeoPhotonics
• Nortel
• Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)
• OFS
• O-Net Communications Ltd
• Oplink Communications: Inc.
• Optiviva Inc.
• Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)
• Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
• Paceon (Mitsubishi)
• Passave (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
• PMC-Sierra
• Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)
• Salira Optical Network Systems
• Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
• Siemens
• Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)
• Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)
• Tellabs
• Terawave (Acquired by Occam Networks)
• Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)
• Vinci Systems: Inc. (Acquired by Tellabs)
• Wave7 Optics
• Worldwide Packets: Inc. (Acquired by Ciena)
• Zhone Technologies

ROADM System Vendors

System Vendor Listing

• Adva Optical Networking
• Alcatel-Lucent
• Ciena
• Cisco
• ECI
• Ericsson
• Fujitsu
• Infinera
• Huawei Technologies
• Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton (now Xtera)
• Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
• Meriton Networks (now Xtera)
• Movaz Networks (ADVA)
• NEC America Inc.
• Nistica
• Nokia Siemens (NSN)
• Nortel
• OpVista Inc.
• Tellabs
• Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)

Table of Figures

• Figure 1: Lightwave Network
• Figure 2: Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
• Figure 3: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
• Figure 4: Historical Network
• Figure 5: Recent Network
• Figure 6: Near Future Network
• Figure 7: NGN - Characterization
• Figure 8: Next Generation Network
• Figure 9: Transformation from Opaque to Transparent
• Figure 10: Control Migration to Network Edge
• Figure 11: BellSouth FTTC
• Figure 12: AT&T Uverse (FTTN)
• Figure 13: Verizon FiOS (FTTP)
• Figure 14: Fibers Required per Year for Each Architecture
• Figure 15: Amount of Fibers for the Architectures
• Figure 16: Length of Fiber for the Architectures
• Figure 17: Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures
• Figure 18: Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture
• Figure 19: AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC
• Figure 20: Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC
• Figure 21: Identified Technologies of the NGN
• Figure 22: ROADMs to the Network Edge
• Figure 23: Differences between ITU and IEFT NGN Views
• Figure 24: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
• Figure 25: Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
• Figure 26: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
• Figure 27: AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL
• Figure 28: ROADM System Unit Forecast - US
• Figure 29: US Market - Change in Predominant Type of ROADM over Time
• Figure 30: US Edge ROADMs Systems
• Figure 31: ROADMs Market Forecast - US
• Figure 32: OADM vs. ROADM Market - US