Telecom Business Transformation Series (All 4 Reports)

Abstract

• I. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Planning for Business Transformation
• II. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Architectures, Economics and Forecasts
• III. The Telecommunications Market Today
• IV. Business Transformation Planning

I. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Planning for Business Transformation

Overview

This report is devoted to exploring the planning process devoted to telecommunications business transformation. The report will also forecast the likely results of those processes, taken collectively, in the development of a Next Generation Network. In general, business transformation planning has many outputs, and influences many (maybe all) processes in a business, but in telecommunications, business transformation planning must also involve, as one of its outputs, the development of a Next Generation Network, since the nature of the future network must reflect the new business plan. The history of the networking business is largely based on network evolution steps that were determined by the geniuses at Bell Labs. Another group of geniuses at the same institution determined end-user (station apparatus) capabilities. It has been said that there have been three network designs: the telegraph network, the telephone network, and the Internet network. Each had its particular end-user apparatus: the telegraph, the telephone, and the computer. As we have changed from each of these paradigms to the next, we have seen massive business transformations by the major players. Some made the transformation; they survived and prospered. Some did not and died. This report is about how to make those transformations and what network will be coming next - the Next Generation Network! Unlike in the past, the development of these future networks is based on customers' needs and business vision, as opposed to technological possibilities and cost efficiencies. Now there are competitive networks to the business and the residence, and there are hundreds, maybe thousands, of companies devoted to the development of station apparatus to meet customers' needs as they see them. Most of this station apparatus is not even called that; rather, it is called computers, DVRs, Wii, routers, over-the-top video, etc. Network evolution, now, is driven by the competitive desire of the multiple network providers to have networks that are capable of interfacing with this station apparatus. For telcos and all companies involved in the telecommunications business, this drastically changed environment requires that they change their businesses if they are to survive and prosper. These two ingredients (customers' needs and business vision), along with an understanding of competitors' positions, are the basis of planning for future networks today. The idea that “Customer Is King” will run throughout this report. It is also strongly reflected in the interviews.

Report Features

We will review the techniques for transformation planning and some of the drivers in today' s market for that planning activity, as well as the resulting Next Generation Network and our forecast for the NGN.

• The description of the planning environment - A framework that outlines the steps in the planning process.
• The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos.
• The competitive market in the U.S. facing today' s telecommunications company, including discussions of major factors in the changing market such as advanced access architectures, supercompetitors, and overbuild.
• A detailed approach to Business Transformation Planning - a “how to.”
• A survey of what major players are doing in business transformation planning.
• Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications business today.
• The changing face of the network - why it is changing and how.
• Our characterization of the NGN - Access, Speed, and Flexibility.
• Our forecast for the Next Generation Network architecture - Access, Transport, and Control.
• A description of the major technology groups in the NGN - with forecasts for their deployment.
• A listing of major vendors of NGN hardware and software.
• A major Appendix will describe the process of “Vision Planning” - a technique for transformation planning.

II. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Architectures, Economics and Forecasts

Overview

The history of the networking business is largely based on network evolution steps that were determined by the geniuses at Bell Labs. Another group of geniuses at the same institution determined end-user (station apparatus) capabilities. The famous beginning of the telephone industry might have been, in today' s terms, “Watson, come here. I need your cell phone number.”

It has been said that there have been three network designs: the telegraph network, the telephone network, and the Internet network. Each had its particular end-user apparatus - the telegraph, the telephone, and the computer. As we have changed from each of these paradigms to the next, we have seen massive business transformations by the major players. Some companies made the transformation; they survived and prospered; some did not and died. This report is about how to make those transformations and specifically about what network will be coming next - the next-generation network!

Report Features

This report reviews the techniques for NGN planning and some of the drivers in today' s market for that planning activity.

• The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos.
• Forecasts of CapEx for the next five years.
• A survey of what major players are doing in NGN planning.
• Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications business today about NGN.
• The changing face of the network - why it is changing and how.
• A discussion of what the major carriers are doing in related areas.
• Our characterization of the NGN - access, speed, and flexibility.
• Our forecast for the next-generation network architecture - access, transport, and control.
• A presentation of architectural options facing a telecommunications company it the advanced access area, and a model of the related economics.
• A discussion of standards activity related to NGN.
• A description of the major technology groups in the NGN, with forecasts for their deployment.
• A listing of major vendors of NGN hardware and software.

Why have an NGN? - Why change networks?

If we have a perfectly good, working network, why do we change it? Why do we evolve it?

• We find a way to make it cheaper to operate. (e.g., changing from open wire to plastic sheathed cables).
• We find a way to make it cheaper to grow. (e.g., we add cross-boxes).
• We find that we need more capacity. (e.g., we convert from cable-derived circuits to T-1-derived circuits).
• The end-user devices (station apparatus) demands that we provide more or different functionality. (e.g., HDTV delivery).
• Of course, particularly with items 1, 2, and 3, there is often a mixture of motives for change. Often the need for more, cheaper capacity will combine items 2 and 3, for example. Over time, the importance of these reasons has changed.

As a part of this report, we will find that now the reason for changing networks is to meet end user-demand for services. The rationale for changing networks is moving from technology/cost savings to customer-driven!

III. The Telecommunications Market Today

Overview

This is the first of a major series of reports to be published by Information Gatekeepers on the subject of telco business transformation and the next-generation network. Many of the world' s telcos are now involved in redefining the way they do business and the kind of network they need in their planned new environment. This series of reports will be a “How To” manual as well as a report on activities by the various major players, with forecasts for the resulting next-generation network.

Report Features

This report will attempt to answer these questions, in the broader context of the overall competitive environment of U.S. telephony today. In addition to the “super-competitors,” we feel that the following are the major issues in today' s competitive structure in telecommunications:

• Telcos become wireless, rather than wireline companies;
• The Advanced Access Architecture deployments being undertaken by the major RBOCs and many smaller telcos;
• Overbuilding by major telcos;
• The emergence of the “super-competitors.”

This report will address each of these areas and provide forecasts as to our expectations for each. Because of the overriding importance of the state of the U.S. (and world) economy, we will begin with a review of our forecasts for the nation' s economy as well as its impact on telephony. That portion of the report will also provide our forecast for capital spending over the next five years. The report will then continue with a review of the current telecom market structure; with that background, we will then address each of the above-listed issues.

IV. Business Transformation Planning

Overview

This report boldly tells exactly how to do transformation planning. It is written by an author who has been involved in (often as a leader, but also as a follower) many transformation projects in several different venues. He has also been deeply involved in all phases of telephony planning for over 40 years. This report is devoted to exploring the planning process devoted to telecommunications business transformation. The techniques and steps described herein will guide the firm in the process, but the actual work must be done on an individual basis. In general, business transformation planning has many outputs, and influences many (maybe all) processes in a business, but in telecommunications, business transformation planning must also involve, as one of its outputs, the development of a next-generation network, since the nature of the future network must reflect the new business plan.

Unlike in the past, the development of these future networks is based on customers' needs and business vision, as opposed to technological possibilities and cost efficiencies. These two ingredients (customers' needs and business vision), along with an understanding of competitors' positions, are the basis of planning for future networks today.

Report Features

We will review the techniques for transformation planning and some of the drivers in today' s market for that planning activity.

• The description of the planning environment - A framework that outlines the steps in the planning process;
• The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos;
• The competitive market in the U.S. facing today' s telecommunications company, including discussions of major factors in the changing market such as advanced access architectures, super-competitors, and overbuild;
• A detailed approach to business transformation planning - a “how to”;
• A major section will describe the process of “Vision Planning” - a technique for transformation planning;
• A survey of what major players are doing in business transformation planning;
• Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications business today.