Telecom Business Transformation Series (All 4 Reports)

Table of Contents

I. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Planning for Business Transformation

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

• General Reports on the Network
• General Market Reports
• Specific Systems Reports

Introduction

The Impact of Competitive Networks

Transformation Planning

Why Do We Change Networks?

Customer is King!

This Report

US Telecommunications Economic Forecast

• General Economic Background

Telecom Economic Background

• Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009

Telecommunications Capital Forecast

Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary

• Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009

Survey of Next Generation Network Activities by Major Players

AT&T

BT (British Telecom) - “21CN'

Comcast

NTT (Japan)

Orange/FT (French Telecom)

Telstra (Australian)

Verizon

Qwest

Ciena

NeoPhotonics

Changing Face of the Network

Why Change Networks?

• Cheaper Operation:
• Cheaper to Grow
• Need for More Capacity:
• End-User Demand.

How the Network Is Changing

• Historical Network
• Recent Network
• Future Network
  • “Watson, Come Here - I Need your Cell Number!”

The Next Generation Network

NGN - Characterization

• Access
• Speed
• Flexibility

NGN - Architecture

• NGN - Access
• NGN - Transport
  • Local
    • Soft switches
    • MSPP
    • Metro DWDM
    • R-OADMs
  • IXC
    • R-OADMs
    • OC-768 and SONET Advances
    • IP
    • “Big Iron”
  • NGN - Control
    • New Competitors vs. Super Competitors View of Control
  • Control Forecast - A Compromise
    • 1. Direct Control
    • 2. Common Control and the Intelligent Network
    • 3. NGN Control

Summary of NGN Forecast

Economic Analysis for Various NGN Advanced Access Architectures

Comparison of Three Major Approaches

• BellSouth' s Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
• AT&T' s Fiber to the node (FTTN)
• Verizon' s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)

Summary of Fiber Requirements

An Economic Model NGN - AAA Architectural Differences

Fiber Required for Each Architecture

Cost of Fiber Needed for Each Architecture

AT&T' s New Plans for BellSouth - A Hybrid FTTC/FTTN

The Technologies of the Next Generation Network

Advanced Access Architectures

• Verizon
• AT&T
• Bell South
• Qwest

NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON

• 10-GPON
• WDM-PONs
• Vendors of WDM-PON
  • Other WDM-PON Activities
• Vendors of WDM - Listing and Summary of Status

ROADMs

• Achieving SONET-like Control in Optical Networks
• A New ROADM
• Evolution to the Edge

NGN Standards Activities

ITU

IEFT

Comparison of ITU and IEFT NGN Views

Forecast for NGN Technologies

Advanced Access Architectures Forecast

Forecasts for Deployment

• AT&T
• Verizon
• BellSouth
• AAA Forecast Summary
• AT&T
• Verizon
• BellSouth
• Qwest

Forecast Size of Deployments

• Forecast of Homes Passed
• Penetration Rates
• Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL

ROADM Forecast

• Model for Forecast Core and Metro ROADMs
• Assumptions of Model
• Model for Forecast - Edge ROADMs
• Systems - Forecast
• US Edge ROADMs

US Market Forecast

Vendors for the NGN

Advanced Access Architecture Vendors

• Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
• ADC
• Adtran
• Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
• Alcatel-Lucent
• Alloptic Inc
• Amino Technologies plc
• Avanex Corporation (now Oclaro)
• Broadlight
• Calix
• Cisco
• Conexant
• Corrigent (now Orckit)
• Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)
• Ericsson
• Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)
• Finisar Corporation
• FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
• Fujitsu
• Genone3 Technologies Inc.
• Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.
• Humax USA Inc.
• JDS Uniphase
• Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)
• LG Electronics
• LightComm Technology
• Marconi
• Microsoft
• Motorola
• NeoPhotonics
• Nortel
• Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)
• OFS
• O-Net Communications Ltd
• Oplink Communications, Inc.
• Optiviva Inc.
• Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)
• Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
• Paceon (Mitsubishi)
• Passave (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
• PMC-Sierra
• Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)
• Salira Optical Network Systems
• Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
• Siemens
• Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)
• Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)
• Tellabs
• Terawave (Acquired by Occam Networks)
• Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)
• Vinci Systems, Inc. (Acquired by Tellabs)
• Wave7 Optics
• Worldwide Packets, Inc. (Acquired by Ciena)
• Zhone Technologies

ROADM System Vendors

System Vendor Listing

• Adva Optical Networking
• Alcatel-Lucent
• Ciena
• Cisco
• ECI
• Ericsson
• Fujitsu
• Infinera
• Huawei Technologies
• Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton (now Xtera)
• Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
• Meriton Networks (now Xtera)
• Movaz Networks (ADVA)
• NEC America Inc.
• Nistica
• Nokia Siemens (NSN)
• Nortel
• OpVista Inc.
• Tellabs
• Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)

Table of Figures

• Figure 1: Lightwave Network
• Figure 2: Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
• Figure 3: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
• Figure 4: Historical Network
• Figure 5: Recent Network
• Figure 6: Near Future Network
• Figure 7: NGN - Characterization
• Figure 8: Next Generation Network
• Figure 9: Transformation from Opaque to Transparent
• Figure 10: Control Migration to Network Edge
• Figure 11: BellSouth FTTC
• Figure 12: AT&T Uverse (FTTN)
• Figure 13: Verizon FiOS (FTTP)
• Figure 14: Fibers Required per Year for Each Architecture
• Figure 15: Amount of Fibers for the Architectures
• Figure 16: Length of Fiber for the Architectures
• Figure 17: Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures
• Figure 18: Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture
• Figure 19: AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC
• Figure 20: Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC
• Figure 21: Identified Technologies of the NGN
• Figure 22: ROADMs to the Network Edge
• Figure 23: Differences between ITU and IEFT NGN Views
• Figure 24: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
• Figure 25: Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
• Figure 26: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
• Figure 27: AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL
• Figure 28: ROADM System Unit Forecast - US
• Figure 29: US Market - Change in Predominant Type of ROADM over Time
• Figure 30: US Edge ROADMs Systems
• Figure 31: ROADMs Market Forecast - US
• Figure 32: OADM vs. ROADM Market - US

II. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Architectures, Economics and Forecasts

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

• General Reports on the Network
• General Market Reports
• Specific Systems Reports

Introduction

The Impact of Competitive Networks

Transformation Planning

Why Do We Change Networks?

Customer is King!

This Report

US Telecommunications Economic Forecast

• General Economic Background

Telecom Economic Background

• Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009

Telecommunications Capital Forecast

Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary

• Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009

Survey of Next Generation Network Activities by Major Players

AT&T

BT (British Telecom) - “21CN'

Comcast

NTT (Japan)

Orange/FT (French Telecom)

Telstra (Australian)

Verizon

Qwest

Ciena

NeoPhotonics

Changing Face of the Network

Why Change Networks?

• Cheaper Operation:
• Cheaper to Grow
• Need for More Capacity:
• End-User Demand.

How the Network Is Changing

• Historical Network
• Recent Network
• Future Network
  • “Watson, Come Here - I Need your Cell Number!”

The Next Generation Network

NGN - Characterization

• Access
• Speed
• Flexibility

NGN - Architecture

• NGN - Access
• NGN - Transport
  • Local
    • Soft switches
    • MSPP
    • Metro DWDM
    • R-OADMs
  • IXC
    • R-OADMs
    • OC-768 and SONET Advances
    • IP
    • “Big Iron”
• NGN - Control
• New Competitors vs. Super Competitors View of Control
  • Control Forecast - A Compromise
    • 1. Direct Control
    • 2. Common Control and the Intelligent Network
    • 3. NGN Control

Summary of NGN Forecast

Economic Analysis for Various NGN Advanced Access Architectures

Comparison of Three Major Approaches

• BellSouth' s Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
• AT&T' s Fiber to the node (FTTN)
• Verizon' s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)

Summary of Fiber Requirements

An Economic Model NGN - AAA Architectural Differences

Fiber Required for Each Architecture

Cost of Fiber Needed for Each Architecture

AT&T' s New Plans for BellSouth - A Hybrid FTTC/FTTN

The Technologies of the Next Generation Network

Advanced Access Architectures

• Verizon
• AT&T
• Bell South
• Qwest

NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON

• 10-GPON
• WDM-PONs
• Vendors of WDM-PON
  • Other WDM-PON Activities
  • Vendors of WDM - Listing and Summary of Status

ROADMs

• Achieving SONET-like Control in Optical Networks
• A New ROADM
• Evolution to the Edge

NGN Standards Activities

ITU

IEFT

Comparison of ITU and IEFT NGN Views

Forecast for NGN Technologies

Advanced Access Architectures Forecast

Forecasts for Deployment

• AT&T
• Verizon
• BellSouth
• AAA Forecast Summary
• AT&T
• Verizon
• BellSouth
• Qwest

Forecast Size of Deployments

• Forecast of Homes Passed
• Penetration Rates
• Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL

ROADM Forecast

• Model for Forecast Core and Metro ROADMs
• Assumptions of Model
• Model for Forecast - Edge ROADMs
• Systems - Forecast
• US Edge ROADMs

US Market Forecast

Vendors for the NGN

Advanced Access Architecture Vendors

• Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
• ADC
• Adtran
• Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
• Alcatel-Lucent
• Alloptic Inc
• Amino Technologies plc
• Avanex Corporation (now Oclaro)
• Broadlight
• Calix
• Cisco
• Conexant
• Corrigent (now Orckit)
• Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)
• Ericsson
• Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)
• Finisar Corporation
• FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
• Fujitsu
• Genone3 Technologies Inc.
• Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.
• Humax USA Inc.
• JDS Uniphase
• Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)
• LG Electronics
• LightComm Technology
• Marconi
• Microsoft
• Motorola
• NeoPhotonics
• Nortel
• Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)
• OFS
• O-Net Communications Ltd.
• Oplink Communications, Inc.
• Optiviva Inc.
• Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)
• Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
• Paceon (Mitsubishi)
• Passave (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
• PMC-Sierra
• Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)
• Salira Optical Network Systems
• Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
• Siemens
• Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)
• Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)
• Tellabs
• Terawave (Acquired by Occam Networks)
• Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)
• Vinci Systems, Inc. (Acquired by Tellabs)
• Wave7 Optics
• Worldwide Packets, Inc. (Acquired by Ciena)
• Zhone Technologies

ROADM System Vendors

System Vendor Listing

• Adva Optical Networking
• Alcatel-Lucent
• Ciena
• Cisco
• ECI
• Ericsson
• Fujitsu
• Infinera
• Huawei Technologies
• Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton (now Xtera)
• Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
• Meriton Networks (now Xtera)
• Movaz Networks (ADVA)
• NEC America Inc.
• Nistica
• Nokia Siemens (NSN)
• Nortel
• OpVista Inc.
• Tellabs
• Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)

Table of Figures

• Figure 1: Lightwave Network
• Figure 2: Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
• Figure 3: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
• Figure 4: Historical Network
• Figure 5: Recent Network
• Figure 6: Near Future Network
• Figure 7: NGN - Characterization
• Figure 8: Next Generation Network
• Figure 9: Transformation from Opaque to Transparent
• Figure 10: Control Migration to Network Edge
• Figure 11: BellSouth FTTC
• Figure 12: AT&T Uverse (FTTN)
• Figure 13: Verizon FiOS (FTTP)
• Figure 14: Fibers Required per Year for Each Architecture
• Figure 15: Amount of Fibers for the Architectures
• Figure 16: Length of Fiber for the Architectures
• Figure 17: Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures
• Figure 18: Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture
• Figure 19: AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC
• Figure 20: Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC
• Figure 21: Identified Technologies of the NGN
• Figure 22: ROADMs to the Network Edge
• Figure 23: Differences between ITU and IEFT NGN Views
• Figure 24: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
• Figure 25: Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
• Figure 26: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
• Figure 27: AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL
• Figure 28: ROADM System Unit Forecast - US
• Figure 29: US Market - Change in Predominant Type of ROADM over Time
• Figure 30: US Edge ROADMs Systems
• Figure 31: ROADMs Market Forecast - US
• Figure 32: OADM vs. ROADM Market - US

III. The Telecommunications Market Today

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

The Lightwave Network Series of Reports

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

• General Reports on the Network
• General Market Reports
• Specific Systems Reports

Introduction

The Telco Business Transformation and Next Generation Network Series of Reports

Google and the RBOCs

How do you compete with “Free?”

This Report

US Telecommunications Economic Forecast

• General Economic Background

Telecom Economic Background

• Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009

Telecommunications Capital Forecast

Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary

• Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009

The Face of Network Competition - Market Structure Today

RBOCs' Multidimensional Competitive Struggle

• Post-merger Competition
• RBOC Purchase of IXCs
• RBOCs vs. Cable Companies

Advanced Access Architecture Plans

AAA Deployment Forecast Summary

• AT&T
• Verizon
• Qwest

Forecast Size of Deployments

• Forecast of Homes Passed
• Penetration Rates

RBOCs Are Becoming Wireless Access Companies

• RBOC Loss of Main Lines
• It' s a Wireless Access Industry!

The Wireless Access Landscape

Forecast for Wireline to Wireless

The Super Competitors

Google Attacks - Google Voice

Forecast for Google Voice

Forecast for Google Voice

Overbuild

• Overbuild - How?
• Overbuild - Significance

A New Type of Competition

Summary of Overbuild Forecasts

Summary of Forecasts

General Economic Forecasts

Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009

Advanced Access Architectures

• AT&T
• Verizon
• Qwest

Wireline to Wireless

Google Voice/Google Forecast

Overbuilding

Table of Figures

• Figure 1: Lightwave Network
• Figure 2: Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
• Figure 3: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
• Figure 4: Summary of Competitive Position
• Figure 5: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
• Figure 6: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
• Figure 7: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
• Figure 8: Telcos vs. Cable Companies - 2009
• Figure 9: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
• Figure 10: Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
• Figure 11: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
• Figure 12: Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
• Figure 13: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
• Figure 14: Wireless Competition
• Figure 15: Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration
• Figure 16: The Super Competitors
• Figure 17: Google as a Serious Threat
• Figure 18: Forecast for Google Voice

IV. Business Transformation Planning

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF FIGURES

THE LIGHTWAVE SERIES OF REPORTS

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

• General Reports on the Network
• General Market Reports
• Specific Systems Reports

INTRODUCTION

The Impact of Competitive Networks

Transformation Planning

Customer is King!

This Report

The Face of Network Competition

This Chapter

The Face of Network Competition - Market Structure Today

• RBOCs' Multidimensional Competitive Struggle

Post-merger Competition

RBOC Purchase of IXCs

RBOCs vs. Cable Companies

Advanced Access Architecture Plans

RBOCs Are Becoming Wireless Access Companies

• RBOC Loss of Main Lines
• It' s a Wireless Access Industry!
• The Wireless Access Landscape
• Forecast for Wireline to Wireless

The Super Competitors

• Google Attacks - Google Voice
• Forecast for Google Voice

Overbuild

• Overbuild - How?
• Overbuild - Significance
• A New Type of Competition
• Summary of Overbuild Forecasts

Summary of Forecasts - Face of the Market

• General Economic Forecasts
• Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
• Advanced Access Architectures
  • AT&T
  • Verizon
  • Qwest
• Wireline to Wireless
• Google Voice/Google Forecast
• Overbuilding

BUSINESS TRANSFORMATiON PLANNING - HOW TO

PLANNING ENVIRONMENT

Market Intelligence

• Market Structure

Business Vision

• Vision Development

What Is Vision Planning?

• Development of a Vision
• Vision Planning - Examples
  • IBM Example
  • Lincoln Example from the Civil War
• The Vision Planning Pyramid
• The Vision Planning Process
• Step 1. Vision Statement
• Service Vision Example
• Step 2. Develop a view of the future environment and test.
• Step 3. Restatement
• Step 4. Backwards deployment (Implementation Plan)

Service Implementation Plan Example

Summary of Vision Planning

Marketstructure

Implementation

• Market Intelligence Feedback

COMPLETED CYCLE OF THE PLANNING ENVIRONMENT

GENERAL US ECONOMIC FORECAST

General Economic Background

Telecom Economic Background

Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009

Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009

SURVEY OF BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION ACTIVITIES BY MAJOR PLAYERS

• AT&T
• BT (British Telecom) - “21CN'
• Comcast
• NTT (Japan)
• Orange/FT (French Telecom)
• Telstra (Australian)
• Verizon
• Qwest
• Ciena
• NeoPhotonics

Table of Figures

• Figure 1: Lightwave Network
• Figure 2: Summary of Competitive Position
• Figure 3: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
• Figure 4: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
• Figure 5: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
• Figure 6: Telcos vs. Cable Companies - 2009
• Figure 7: Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
• Figure 8: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
• Figure 9: Wireless Competition
• Figure 10: Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration
• Figure 11: The Super Competitors
• Figure 12: Google as a Serious Threat
• Figure 13: Forecast for Google Voice
• Figure 14: Verizon' s NOOF Arrangement
• Figure 15: Forecasted Overbuild Strategic Outcome
• Figure 16: Planning Environment
• Figure 17: IBM' s Gerstner' s Corollaries
• Figure 18: Vision Planning Pyramid
• Figure 19: Vision Planning Approach
• Figure 20: Traditional Planning Approach
• Figure 21: Tom Peter' s List of Good Vision Attributes
• Figure 22: Davenports' Visioning Process
• Figure 23: Service Vision Statement Example
• Figure 24: Vision Statement Examples
• Figure 25: Example of Vision Statement and Implementation Plan for Service
• Figure 26: Summary of Points about Vision
• Figure 27: Marketstructure
• Figure 28: Planning Environment - Completed Cycle
• Figure 29: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts