The World Markets and Manufacturers of Transformers, 2008 - 2015

This 2008 edition builds on the groundbreaking 2005 report. MVA and $ market values are included which provide a unique insight into the market evolution; particularly in the current environment of inflationary material costs.

Equipment Type:

• Generator Transformers
• Transmission Transformers
• Distribution Transformers
• Pole top Transformers
• Type of Transformer:
• Oil Filled
• Cast Resin & Dry Types
• Synthetic Fluid Filled

By Size:

• 5kVA - 50kVA
• 50kVA - 500kVA
• 500kVA - 5MVA
• 5MVA - 50MVA
• 50MVA - 150MVA
• Over 150MVA

By Customer Type:

• Utility Companies
• Construction & Industry
• Rail & Transport
• Mining, Marine & Offshore

The report includes:

• Detailed data on over 150 national markets for Transformers by Type and MVA Demand
• Market values and growth rates for all countries, from 2003 to 2007
• Market value and MVA growth rate forecasts for all countries, from 2008 to 2015
• Import and export values for each country by equipment type 2003 to 2006
• Three year rolling average import values, with % shares by origin
• A contact Directory of Major Manufacturers and Products Supplied
• Estimates of sales of the world' s leading manufacturers of Transformers, with estimates of sales per region, equipment type and customer type.
• Production data (by value) for major manufacturing nations
• Country infrastructure data
• Geographical Coverage

The report provides data on an individual country level, split into the following major regions:

• Western Europe
• Eastern Europe
• Former USSR
• Africa (5 regional splits)
• Middle East
• South Asia
• Far East
• North America
• South America

Data in the markets report is presented in both millions of US dollars and in terms of power capacity (MVA).

• For the data presented in US dollars, the survey was based primarily on desk research, including a review of available published production and trade statistics. Import and export figures are calculated from national and United Nations' figures for 2006 - the most comprehensive and up-to-date statistics available. Market values are assumed to be equal to Production + (Imports - Exports). National production estimates are based on statistics provided by national governments and trade associations. Market sizes for 2007 are estimated by analysing a range of economic indicators together with trends in trade flow and the pattern of market size growth over the period 2000-2006.
• Market values for the period 2008 to 2015 have been estimated based on two separate methodologies. Firstly the past growth rate in market values for each country have been extrapolated and have been compared with general macro-economic indicators such as GDP, GDP growth and inputs to the value added for each economy. Secondly, the development of the electrical power system in each country has been studied to provide indications for future system growth, and hence transformer market growth.
• The future MVA demand for each country has been forecast using the following method. The current year-on-year growth in installed capacity for each country has been tracked for the last 40 years. The development over the last ten years has been used as the basis for establishing the new MVA of generator capacity in each country for the period 2005 to 2015. To this new capacity has been added the power station capacity that is necessary to replace redundant or retired plant. Typical rates for this are based on 2.5% of the installed capacity in 1970 and 1975, yielding an assumed plant life of approximately 40 years. The new and replacement generator MVA has then been used as the basis for calculating the transmission and distribution transformer MVA over the forecast period.
• Market values are at factory gate prices - they reflect the prices for the products by the importer and do not include trade mark-ups and installation costs. It should be noted that published classifications of products, especially with respect to trade statistics, are sometimes inaccurate, as products may be shipped under generic titles. It should also be noted that Goulden Reports chronicles shipments rather than contracts. A contract to supply goods over a number of years will not appear as a one-off event in a Goulden Report, but rather will be recorded from the trade statistics. The nature of the market means that demand within countries, especially developing ones, can fluctuate greatly from year to year as purchases are often made on a one-off basis rather than spread evenly over a number of years.
• Within national markets, where published figures were unavailable to us, the breakdown between different product categories is based on intelligence about the pattern of consumption in the country concerned. In these cases the breakdown is made from an estimate of the Total market size rather than the value of the entire market being calculated from the individual product categories.

Clients that have purchased previous editions of this report will notice several changes in the content and presentation of this edition. Firstly the contact directory, which was previously published as a separate report has now been incorporated in Section 4 of this report. The addition of a greater depth of information on market segmentation lead us to believe that one complete report covering markets and manufacturers would be more useful to purchasers.

Secondly as alluded to above this edition contains a more detailed analysis of the market in each country. Market data by value, by MVA, by insulation type, by size, by end use and forecasts through to 2015 by value and by MVA are all included in this report.

We have also changed the source of trade data that has been in this report. Previous editions have used the Standard International Classification system, revision 3 - SITC Rev 3; in this edition the Harmonised System HS2002 has been used. This has allowed a greater depth of analysis of international trade by type of transformer; however the two systems are not interchangeable and purchasers comparing figures from this edition with previous reports will notice changes in figures for years 2002 to 2006. As a generalisation the levels of trade shown in this report are lower than in previous editions, primarily at the lower end of the range of transformers. In order to exclude smaller, out of scope, industrial transformers from previous editions a calculation was made to assess the size of this segment; whereas the HS classification provides a much clearer definition which allows an accurate assessment of transformers greater than 16kVA (the minimum practical pole top size) to be made.

Figures for non-UN countries are based on data obtained from individual countries and are consequently not necessarily comparable with UN-derived information. Clearly the report is only as accurate as the information upon which it draws - the sources are regarded as being the best and most comprehensive available.