FTTH Review & Five-Year Forecast: The Road to Next-Gen PON

Abstract

Fiber to the home (FTTH) deployments continued to make strong progress in 2008 and early 2009, despite the economic downturn, and prospects for continued growth through 2010 look good. During 2008, just more than 9 million homes were added to the FTTH total (connected either in the home itself or in the basement of an apartment block), and in 2009 we expect that figure to increase by almost 9 million again, to reach 47 million homes at the end of the year.

However, progress is patchy. Some countries, notably China, are making a big leap forward, while others, such as France, have seen disappointing delays to ambitious rollout plans. This will only increase the variability in the world market on a wide range of factors, including penetration, technology, costs, regulation, major builders, and so on. These variations will also occur at the national level, creating some dilemmas for regulators and politicians. Already, a ten-year gap in fiber development has opened up between fiber-heavy countries such as Japan and European nations, including Germany and the U.K. - and this gap could widen.

• It looks at the prospects for existing and new technology, focusing in particular on the likely lifetime of existing PON technologies and the prospects for their replacement or augmentation by next-gen PON technologies.
• It offers an overview of important FTTH projects and developments over the past year in all geographies, including North America, Asia/Pacific, and Europe, as well as detailed discussion of major countries in each region and snapshots of many smaller countries.
• It includes a forecast for homes connected with fiber from 2007-2013, breaking down market growth by region, type of technology, and type of network builder and looking at anticipated penetration rates and households connected in all major economies.
• It presents a detailed technical comparison of all major vendors' FTTH offers, focusing on each company' s flagship optical line terminal (OLT) product, as well as examining their offers in related areas, plans for future development, and strengths and weaknesses.

Report Scope and Structure

FTTH Review & Five-Year Forecast: The Road to Next-Gen PON is structured as follows:

• Section I is an introduction to the report, with complete report key findings.
• Section II defines the various types of FTTH and describes the major technologies, along with their advantages and disadvantages. It also examines in detail the emerging next-generation PON technologies - specifically 10GPON, 10GEPON, and WDM PON. This section also explores FTTH equipment and deployment cost trends.
• Section III analyzes the three major regional markets - Asia/Pacific, North America, and EMEA - detailing which carriers are building and delivering FTTH, and where. This section offers detailed descriptions of FTTH projects in all major countries, including the U.S., China, Japan, France, Germany, and others, as well as snapshots of several dozen other significant countries.
• Section IV provides a global forecast for the number of FTTH households that will be connected from 2007 to 2013, subdividing the market by major geographic regions, technologies, provider types, and dwelling types.
• Section V reviews 24 major vendors in the FTTH sector, analyzing their flagship OLT products, exploring their strategies, deployments, and plans in this market, and evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses.

FTTH Review & Five-Year Forecast: The Road to Next-Gen PON is essential reading for a wide range of industry participants, including the following:

• FTTH technology suppliers: How will demand for FTTH progress in coming months and years? How will the global economic downturn affect FTTH deployments? Which regions are going to see the most FTTH buildout activity, and which network operators will be leading the way? Which technology choices are deployers most likely to make? Are your products and marketing messages in line with customer plans and expectations? Are there significant gaps in your product line coverage that need to be addressed to meet future demand for FTTH solutions?
• Other equipment suppliers: How will demand for your products be affected by FTTH deployment plans? Which technologies are emerging as the most likely winners for tomorrow' s access networks? Is your company in position to take advantage of those anticipated changes?
• Network operators: How do your plans for FTTH deployment compare with those of your competitors? Does your access strategy deliver the best cost-control option for your network, or are there other alternatives that will deliver greater efficiency? How do your projected costs for FTTH deployment match up with the rest of the industry? What is the competitive threat posed by FTTH from other operators?
• Investors: Which technologies are emerging as the winning solutions for FTTH, and which companies are the leading providers of those solutions? How will FTTH affect profitability for the telecom service sector in the coming months and years?