Report: Persistent High Altitude Aerial Platforms & Payloads: Private Industry & Defense Applications Forecast 2010-2015 TOC

1. Administration

1.1. Why Persistent Platforms?
1.2. The Market for Persistent Platforms
1.3. Scope of this Report
1.4. Basic Assumptions
1.5. Methodology
- 1.5.1. Research Team and Methods
1.6. Who Is This Report For?
- 1.6.1. Business and Civilian Government Leaders
- 1.6.2. Military Leaders
- 1.6.3. Persistent Aerial Platform Professionals
- 1.6.4. Payload Professionals and Market Analysts
1.7. About the Lead Analyst

2. Executive Summary

2.1. The Problem
2.2. The Solution
2.3. What is a Persistent Aerial Platform?
- 2.3.1. Heavier vs. Lighter-than-Air in the Stratosphere
2.4. Major Findings
- 2.4.1. Summary
- 2.4.2. Detailed Findings
2.5. Major Conclusions
- 2.5.1. Flight Vehicles
- 2.5.2. Culture
- 2.5.3. Commercial Issues
- 2.5.4. X-Prize?

3. Development Drivers

3.1. Triple-Use Systems
3.2. Unique Capability
3.3. Effective at Reduced Cost
3.4. Controllable, Dedicated, Specialized
3.5. Cost Effectiveness
3.6. Excellent Counter-Terror Tool
3.7. Reduces Number of People at Risk
3.8. Recognized Military Value
3.9. Next Big Commercial Aviation Market

4. Development Inhibitors

4.1. Commercial Competition (Mostly from Space)
4.2. Cultural gPushbackh
4.3. Airspace Restrictions
4.4. Radio Frequency Interference
4.5. Technical Challenges
4.6. US Government Budget Process

5. Business Opportunities

5.1. Early Adoption Profit Opportunities
- 5.1.1. Permanent Communications Relay Services
- 5.1.2. Direct Broadcast Entertainment (both Television and Radio)
- 5.1.3. High-Speed Internet Connections
- 5.1.4. Regional Earth Observation - Overhead Imagery
- 5.1.5. Traffic Monitoring
- 5.1.6. Gas-Oil Pipeline and Power Grid Control
- 5.1.7. Contamination and Environmental Monitoring
- 5.1.8. Natural Disaster Monitoring
- 5.1.9. Agricultural Optimization
- 5.1.10. Infrastructure Monitoring
- 5.1.11. Border and Maritime Control
5.2. Market Potential
- 5.2.1. Space Capability Market Share
5.3. National Security Market Opportunities
- 5.3.1. Tactical Beyond Line of Sight Communication on the Move
- 5.3.2. Wideband Reachback & Dedicated Strategic Communication
- 5.3.3. Persistent ISR & Red Force Tracking
- 5.3.4. Change Detection for Mines & IEDs
- 5.3.5. Blue Force Tracking
- 5.3.6. Battlespace Awareness
- 5.3.7. Counter-Pirate & Maritime Patrol
- 5.3.8. Foliage-Penetrating ISR
- 5.3.9. Signals Detection & Characterization
- 5.3.10. All Weather Imaging
- 5.3.11. Detonation/IR Detection & Characterization
- 5.3.12. Psychological Operations (PSYOPS)
- 5.3.13. Fleeting Target Strike
5.4. Aircraft and UAV Market Share Losses

6. Vendor and User Attitudes

6.1. Platform Vendor Attitudes
6.2. Payload Vendor Attitudes
6.3. User Attitudes
- 6.3.1. Military/Government Customer Attitudes
- 6.3.2. Commercial Customer Attitudes
- 6.3.3. Build it and They Will Come

7. Technical Potential

7.1. Heavier-Than-Air: Technology Challenges
7.2. Lighter-Than-Air - Technology Challenges
7.3. Potential Field of Regard/View
- 7.3.1. Sample United States Coverage from the Stratosphere
7.4. Flight Vehicle Survivability
- 7.4.1. Fixed Wing
- 7.4.2. Lighter-Than-Air
7.5. Payload Survivability

8. Satellites vs. Persistent Platforms

8.1. Similarities
8.2. Differences
8.3. Complementary Features
8.4. Cost
8.5. US Military
- 8.5.1. Space Community Culture
- 8.5.2. Culture Matters
- 8.5.3. Culture-Driven Sales Realities
- 8.5.4. Market Share Losses

9. Existing Technologies

9.1. Satellites
9.2. Aircraft
9.3. Balloons

10. Near-Space Flight Environment

10.1. Environment Summary
10.2. Environmental Challenges
10.3. Where to Fly?
- 10.3.1. Wind & Jet Stream
- 10.3.2. Regulation

11. The Case Against gTraditionalh UAVs

11.1. Why Not Just Fly More UAVs?
- 11.1.1. Traditional UAV Limitations
- 11.1.2. Persistent Platform Advantages

12. Likely Operating Concept

12.1. Platform vs. Payload
12.2. Orbit or Operating Area
12.3. Payload Operation
12.4. Illustrations
12.5. Sample Missions/Services
- 12.5.1. Virtual Team Member
- 12.5.2. Backtracking
- 12.5.3. Commercial Imagery
- 12.5.4. Cell Phone Service

13. Emerging Technologies

13.1. Flight Vehicle Summary
- 13.1.1. Fixed-Wing
- 13.1.2. Lighter-Than-Air
13.2. Inherent Problems
- 13.2.1. Fixed-Wing
- 13.2.2. Lighter-Than-Air
13.3. Development History
- 13.3.1. Fixed Wing
- 13.3.2. Lighter-Than-Air
- 13.3.3. US Fixed-Wing Development Sponsors
- 13.3.4. US Lighter-Than-Air Development Sponsors
13.4. Persistent Fixed-Wing Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs)
- 13.4.1. UAS Platforms
- 13.4.2. UAS Payloads
- 13.4.3. Potential UAS Vendors
13.5. Persistent Lighter-Than-Air (LTA) Airships
- 13.5.1. Misperception
- 13.5.2. LTA Platforms
- 13.5.3. LTA Payloads
- 13.5.4. Potential LTA Vendors

14. Market Forecast by Missions

14.1. Basic Market Realities
14.2. Forecast
14.3. Commercial Missions Market Forecast
- 14.3.1. Satellite Telephone, Telecommunications & Cellular Telephone
- 14.3.2. Entertainment
- 14.3.3. Earth Sensing
- 14.3.4. Imaging & Mapping
- 14.3.5. Weather Forecasting & Earth Observation
- 14.3.6. Pollution Monitoring
- 14.3.7. Air Traffic Control
- 14.3.8. Earth Observation
14.4. Military Missions - Market Forecast
- 14.4.1. Market Shift Causes & Results
- 14.4.2. Shifting Military Missions
- 14.4.3. UAS Priorities
- 14.4.4. Relevant Defense Spending
- 14.4.5. gPeace Dividendsh
- 14.4.6. Funding Forecasts
- 14.4.7. Forecasted Profitable Market Areas
14.5. Homeland Security and Law Enforcement
- 14.5.1. Relevant UAS Capabilities
- 14.5.2. Land Border Surveillance
- 14.5.3. Coastal Security
- 14.5.4. Law Enforcement
- 14.5.5. First Responders and Disaster Recovery
- 14.5.6. Search and Rescue
- 14.5.7. Wildland Fire Suppression
- 14.5.8. Special Event and Area Protection
- 14.5.9. Tracking & Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID)
- 14.5.10. Natural Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Recovery

15. Market Forecast by Technology

15.1. Platform Technologies
- 15.1.1. Fixed-Wing UASs
- 15.1.2. Airships
15.2. Forecast by Payload
- 15.2.1. US Remote Sensing Policy
- 15.2.2. Cellular Telephone Transceivers (Cell Phones)
- 15.2.3. Direct Broadcast Radio and Television
- 15.2.4. Optical Sensors
- 15.2.5. Radar
- 15.2.6. Lidar: Laser ' Radar'
- 15.2.7. SIGINT & Electronic Warfare Systems
- 15.2.8. Anti-Ballistic Missile Weapons

16. Overview by Nation/Region

16.1. Canada
16.2. China
16.3. Europe
16.4. Germany
16.5. Israel
16.6. Japan
16.7. Russia
16.8. Saudi Arabia (and other rich, threatened governments)
16.9. South Korea
16.10. Switzerland
16.11. United Kingdom
16.12. United States

17. Glossary

List of Tables

Chapter 2. Executive Summary
- Table 1 - US Government Persistent Platform Market Share Forecast [%] - 2009- 2015
- Table 2 - Satellite Entertainment Service Revenue by [$Billion] - 2009- 2015
Chapter 3. Development Drivers
- Table 3 - NDIA Study - Platform and Payload Combinations
- Table 4 - African Cell Phone Demand - Forecasted Customers [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
Chapter 5. Business Opportunities
- Table 5 - Civil Space Budget by Nation by [$Million] for FY 2006-2007
- Table 6 - US Government Space - Forecasted Spending by [$Billion] - 2009- 2015
- Table 7 - US UAS Acquisition Budget Forecast by [$Million] - 2009- 2015
- Table 8 - US UAS Operations & Maintenance Budget Forecast by [$Million] - 2009- 2015
Chapter 7 Technical Potential
- Table 9 - Payload Coverage Diameter [km] at Various Look-Up or Elevation Angles
Chapter 11. The Case Against gTraditionalh UAVs
- Table 10 - Payload Coverage Diameter [km] at Various Elevation Angles - Look-Up or Elevation Angle
Chapter 14. Market Forecast by Missions
- Table 11 - Potential Early Private and Homeland Security Markets - 2009-2015
- Table 12 - Forecasted Worldwide Cell Phone Subscriptions [Billions of Subscribers] - 2009- 2015
- Table 13 - Forecasted Cell Phone Subscribers by Region by [Billions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Table 14 - Forecasted Cell Phone Infrastructure Spending [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Table 15 - National Defense Industry Association - Potential Near-Space Missions
- Table 16 - DoD Prioritized UAS Needs - FY2002
- Table 17 - DoD Prioritized UAS Needs - FY2007
- Table 18 - US War on Terror Spending by [$Million] - 2001- 2009
- Table 19 - US Army Sensor Budget Forecast by [$Million] - 2007 - 2013
- Table 20 - US Military Fixed-Wing UAS - Forecasted Market [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Table 21 - US Military Persistent Platform - Forecasted Market by [$Billion] - 2009- 2015
- Table 22 - Counter IED - Forecasted Markets by Function [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Table 23 - Counter IED - Forecasted Markets [%] - 2009-2015
- Table 24 - US Missile Defense Agency - Forecasted Budget [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Table 25 - US Homeland Security Requirements
- Table 26 - Tracking Mission (RFID) - Forecasted Market [$Billion] - 2009-2015
Chapter 15. Market Forecast by Technology
- Table 27 - European Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Table 28 - US Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed by [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Table 29 - Estimated Populations in 2000 and 2030 [Millions]
- Table 30 - African Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Table 31 - Chinese Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Table 32 - Indian Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Table 33 - Direct Broadcast Entertainment - Forecasted Market [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Table 34 - US Remote Sensing - Forecasted Market [$Billion] - 2009-2015

List of Figures

Chapter 2. Executive Summary
- Figure 1 - US Government Persistent Platform Market Share Forecast by [%] - 2009- 2015
- Figure 2 - Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) Revenue (left) & US Unmanned Aerial Systems (right) Spending [$Billion] - 2009- 2015
- Figure 3 - Satellite Entertainment Service Revenue by [$Billion] - 2009- 2015
- Figure 4 - Developing Nations' Cell Phone Demand [Millions of Subscribers] by Country in 2006
- Figure 5 - Developing Nations' Cell Phone Demand Growth Rate by [%] by Country in 2006
- Figure 6 - Worldwide Cell Phone Subscriptions Outlook - 2015
- Figure 7 - US Counter IED Spending in 2015 by [$Million]
Chapter 3. Development Drives
- Figure 8 - African Cell Phone Demand - Forecasted Customers [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009- 2015
Chapter 5. Business Opportunities
- Figure 9 - Civil Space Budget by Nation by [$Million] for FY 2006-2007
- Figure 10 - Airships over Los Angeles
- Figure 11 - US Government Space - Forecasted Spending by [$Billion] - 2009- 2015
- Figure 12 - US UAS Acquisition Budget Forecast by [$Billion] - 2009- 2015
- Figure 13 - US UAS Operations & Maintenance Budget Forecast by [$Million] - 2009- 2015
Chapter 7. Technical Potential
- Figure 14 - SwRI' s HiSentinel50 Airship in 2008
- Figure 15 - Payload Coverage Diameter at 20km Attitude (New York City Area)
- Figure 16 - Full Continental US Radio Coverage Possible From Aerial Vehicles at 20km with Five Degree Look-Up Angle
- Figure 17 - Partial Continental US Radio Coverage Possible From Aerial Vehicles at 20km with Five Degree Look-Up Angle
Chapter 9. Existing Technologies
- Figure 18 - The Response Time of a Symmetrical Constellation of Remote Sensing Satellites
- Figure 19 - Space Data Corporation Balloon with Controller
- Figure 20 - Space Data Corporation Altitude Control Valve Assembly
- Chapter 10. Near-Space Flight Environment
- Figure 21 - Typical January US Jet Stream
- Figure 22 - Typical July US Jet Stream
- Figure 23 - Average Wind Velocities over the US
Chapter 11. The Case Against "Traditional" UAVs
- Figure 24 - Payload Coverage Diameter at 20km Attitude (Baghdad, Iraq Area)
Chapter 12. Likely Operating Concept
- Figure 25 - Capability Owner Determines Vehicle' s Responsiveness to Various Users by Programming a Payload Controller
- Figure 26 - Field of Regard (large) vs. Camera Field of View (small)
- Figure 27 - Several Cameras May Operate Independently
- Figure 28 - Radio Footprint Extends Across a Very Large Diameter
Chapter 13. Emerging Technologies
- Figure 29 - Sample Airship Profiles at Low Reynolds Numbers
- Figure 30 - Artist' s Conception of Global Observer on Station in the Stratosphere
- Figure 31 - QinetiQ' s Zephyr UAV
- Figure 32 - Boeing & QinetiQ Vulture Concept Flying Wing
- Figure 33 - Lockheed-Martin Vulture Concept
- Figure 34 - Photon Sieve
- Figure 35 - Nickel Photon Sieve Operating with Simulated Starlight
- Figure 36 - Corner Cube Mounted in Metal Frame
- Figure 37 - Artist' s Conception of LMCO High Altitude Airship over the US East Coast
- Figure 38 - LMCO Large Prototype Image
- Figure 39 - NSS Tethered Aerostat
- Figure 40 - Early NSS Upper Stage Graphic Showing Nearly Symmetrical Lens Shape
- Figure 41 - Current NSS Upper Stage graphic Showing Airfoil Shape, With Lower Stage Inset
- Figure 42 - Sanswire-Tao StratelliteTM Platform
- Figure 43 - SkySentry Prototype Payload Return System
- Figure 44 - SwRI' s CHHAPP Airship Inflated in a Hanger
- Figure 45 - SwRI Airship Ascending
- Figure 46 - StratXX Airship X-Station 100 Concept
Chapter 14. Market Forecast by Missions
- Figure 47 - Probable Early Commercial Mission Markets for Persistent Platforms
- Figure 48 - Forecasted Worldwide Cell Phone Subscriptions [Billions of Subscribers] - 2009- 2015
- Figure 49 - Fastest Growing Cell Phone Markets - 2006
- Figure 50 - Forecasted Cell Phone Subscribers by Region by [Billions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Figure 51 - Forecasted Cell Phone Infrastructure Spending [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Figure 52 - Military Missions Likely to Shift to Persistent Platforms
- Figure 53 - US DoD UAS Annual Funding Profile
- Figure 54 - US Military Fixed-Wing UAS - Forecasted Market by [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Figure 55 - US Military Persistent Platform - Forecasted Market by [$Billion] - 2009- 2015
- Figure 56 - Counter IED - Forecasted Markets by Function [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Figure 57 - US Missile Defense Agency - Forecasted Budget [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Figure 58 - Aerial Photograph from Actual Law Enforcement Operation
- Figure 59 - Tracking Mission (RFID) - Forecasted Market [$Billion] - 2009-2015
Chapter 15. Market Forecast by Technology
- Figure 60 - European Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Figure 61 - US Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed by [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Figure 62 - Estimated Populations in 2000 and 2030 by [Millions]
- Figure 63 - African Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Figure 64 - Chinese Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Figure 65 - Indian Cell Customers Forecast - Low-Speed vs. High-Speed [Millions of Subscribers] - 2009-2015
- Figure 66 - Direct Broadcast Entertainment - Forecasted Market [$Billion] - 2009-2015
- Figure 67 - US Combined Remote Sensing - Forecasted Market [$Million] - 2009, 2012 and 2015
Chapter 16. Overview by Nation/Region
- Figure 68 - Japanese Prototype Unmanned Airship
- Figure 69 - High Altitude Airship "Berkut" Flight Vehicle
- Figure 70 - High Altitude Airship "Berkut" Projected Radio Coverage
- Figure 71 - Forecast Saudi Arabian Homeland Security Outlay Forecast by [$Billion] - 2008- 2018
- Figure 72 - South Korean Prototype Unmanned Airship
- Figure 73 - 18,000m3 X-Station at Zeppelin Hangar in Friedrichshafen, Germany

Persistent High Altitude Aerial Platforms & Payloads: Private Industry & Defense Applications Forecast 2010-2015

Table of Contents

1. Administration

2. Executive Summary

3. Development Drivers

4. Development Inhibitors

5. Business Opportunities

6. Vendor and User Attitudes

7. Technical Potential

8. Satellites vs. Persistent Platforms

9. Existing Technologies

10. Near-Space Flight Environment

11. The Case Against gTraditionalh UAVs

12. Likely Operating Concept

13. Emerging Technologies

14. Market Forecast by Missions

15. Market Forecast by Technology

16. Overview by Nation/Region

17. Glossary

List of Tables

List of Figures

11. The Case Against gTraditionalh UAVs